Background
The Lebanese Economy has been undergoing robust growth over the past decade and it has experienced a remarkable decrease in its debt-to-GDP ratio, from about 180 percent in 2006, to 134 percent at the eve of the Syrian conflict in 2011. Lebanon’s economy was severely impacted by the crisis directly and indirectly. The services sector and tourism; Lebanon’s largest economic sectors; were largely affected and Lebanese initial weak finances were further strained by the spillover. (World Bank Report, 2013).
Since the outbreak of the protests in Syria, the government of Lebanon has been struggling to deal with the economic, social and other consequences of the conflict on Lebanon, including refugee inflows of unprecedented magnitude. Lebanon has borne the main brunt of the refugee crisis to become the largest host nation both in absolute terms and when considering the limited size of its territory and its small population.
As of 22 March 2014, UNHCR figures show that registered Syrian refugees in Lebanon reached 980,731. By the end of 2014, the Syrian refugee population could reach 1.5 million. Syrian nationals already accounting for over a quarter of the resident population, and increasing in number. The effects of the massive refugee inflow that is becoming an increasingly divisive issue that could dent social cohesion within Lebanese society, and between refugees and host communities. The spillover of the war in Syria has direct and indirect effects on Lebanon’s economy in terms of a fall in investment, loss of employment, disruption of trade routes, unwelcoming environment for tourists, and decline in government revenues. The negative effects are substantial given the economy’s large dependence on the services sector which accounts for 75 percent of economic output, and is highly vulnerable to political and security risks.
The Syrian refugee populations have, for the most part, settled in areas inhabited by impoverished and vulnerable Lebanese communities where limited or non-existent service provision is then even further stretched. The most vulnerable areas include the highly impoverished North, the Bekaa, the South and the Palestinian refugee camps across the country. Several groups, including Lebanese female-headed households, Palestinians, and Syrian refugees are the most severely affected by any deterioration of the economic situation.
The World Bank and the United Nations were requested by the Lebanese government to measure the multi-faceted economic impact of the situation, and improve the flow and effectiveness of the international community’s support to Lebanon in dealing with, and sharing in the burden of, this major crisis. This study “Lebanon: Economic and Social Impact Assessment of the Syrian Conflict; September 2013” assessed the net impact and cost of the crisis, with a focus on: the effect of the conflict on economic output; the state’s eroding capacity for service delivery and the programs needed to keep up with ever-growing demand in education, health and infrastructure; and the public finance implications of the crisis.
The Government of Lebanon, the World Bank, and the UN developed the Lebanon Roadmap of Priority Interventions for Stabilization from the Syrian Conflict. The Roadmap is Lebanon’s national response plan to the socioeconomic impacts of the conflict. It offers ways to alleviate the impact on the government’s budget (national/local) by supplementing or strengthening capacity to provide those services for the general public – and particularly for those communities that are hosting refugees.
The study conducted by the World Bank did not address humanitarian aid which continued to be provided by the specialized UN and international humanitarian aid agencies reaching close to one billion US dollar in the last year. Yet there is some research conducted by NGOs in Lebanon that could support the study. Such studies include labor market analysis in refugee areas, Emergency Market Mapping Analysis (EMMA), Vulnerability assessment of the Syrian Refugees (VASyR), along with the upcoming study by the World Food Program on the indirect and direct economic impact of WFP’s intervention.
There is a need to assess the impact of this humanitarian aid, especially the positive economic multiplier effect of injecting cash into the economy, the extent of the refugees being economically active, and their skills complementarity to the Lebanese labor force, as well as impact on economic sectors and trade. This Study could also fill the information gap existing and consolidate the research conducted by other NGOs and organizations.
Duties and Responsibilities
The main objective of the proposed study is to assess the extent of the positive impact of the UN and International Humanitarian Aid provided to the Syrian Refugees in Lebanon on the Lebanese Economy. The consultant is mandated to take over the following components:
Component 1: Macro Mapping of the UN and International Humanitarian Aid to Lebanon (2011-2014)
- To coordinate with relevant UN Agencies, Lebanese government and major donors in order to identify collect and list relevant data of all humanitarian aid contributions, their sources, UN agencies, implementing partners, brief description of the intervention, target groups, and disbursement;
- To provide an aggregate macro analysis of their impact;
- To show progress across the time period 2011-2014;
- To count for the financing announcement versus the actual disbursement of International Humanitarian Aid.
Component 2: Assessing UN and International Humanitarian Aid Impact on the Lebanese Economy
- To develop a methodology to measure the economic growth and fiscal multiplier impact of the UN and International Humanitarian Aid on the Lebanese Economy;
- To account for the short term multiplier and the long term multiplier, and to account for both the nominal and real positive economic impact of the humanitarian aid;
- To provide analysis of this positive impact on economic sectors (Agriculture, Industries, services, trade, real estate, hospitality, transport, communication etc…) and disaggregated by regions where possible;
- The assessment will have to segregate allocations and avoid double counting;
- The study should look at procurement of goods and services and disaggregate local vs. international contracts and data of tax exemption goods, especially those relevant to UN agencies and Humanitarian Aid;
- To provide analysis on its impact on the Lebanese host communities in the respective regions, on infrastructure, on provision of services, and overall economic activities;
- (Only if possible within the proposed time frame, since this requires substantial efforts to compile) Disaggregate data by geography, specifically, the following information would be extremely useful:
- Number of Lebanese hired per area per person and per full time employment on monthly basis;
- Number of Lebanese engaged in daily labor per number of people and number of days;
- Amount of money disbursed through cash-transfer programming, with number of beneficiaries and level of benefits per year (2011-2014) and per regions in Lebanon.
Component 3: Recommendations
- Recommended Actions on macro and micro levels that can be taken to enhance and increase the positive impact of the UN and other International Humanitarian Aid on the Lebanese economy in the short and medium terms with responsible parties and a timeline. The following recommendations should balance out the differences between potential economic distortions that could arise. (such as tension between indirect economic impact and beneficiary preferences);
- Given the nature of these recommendations, a workshop will be organized with UN agencies, the technical committee (UNDP, UNHCR, WFP, World Bank, OCHA, UNICEF and UNRWA as well as representatives of the Lebanese government) in order to review and ensure consensus around the recommendations before publishing the study.
Competencies
Corporate Competencies:
- Demonstrates integrity by modeling the UN’s values and ethical standards;
- Promotes the vision, mission, and strategic goals of UNDP;
- Displays cultural, gender, religion, race, nationality and age sensitivity and adaptability;
- Treats all people fairly without favoritism;
- Fulfills all obligations to gender sensitivity and zero tolerance for sexual harassment.
Functional Competencies:
- Extensive knowledge of Lebanon and the Lebanese Economy;
- Strong analytical skills and technical expertise in economics/statistics;
- Strong knowledge of macro-economic models;
- Experience of collecting and working with different data sources;
- Ability to analyze large data sets and draw meaningful conclusions;
- Ability to work independently and provide quality services.
Required Skills and Experience
Education:
- Graduate Degree MA in Economics, Development or other related fields. PHD is a plus.
Experience:
- A minimum of ten years of experience in economic research;
- Extensive experience in conducting economic impact analysis and preferably knowledge of the Humanitarian Aid context;
- Extensive experience in conducting macro-economic analysis;
- Extensive experience in economic data collection, information management systems and capability to coordinate with UN agencies and multi stakeholders;
- Previous experience with a UN agency is an asset.
Language Requirements:
- Proficiency in English Reporting.
Kindly refer to the Individual Consultant Procurement Notice and all related Annexes by visiting the below link:
Please make sure to submit all the requested documents/information; otherwise, your application will be considered incomplete.