Background

UNDP Bangladesh Country Programme Document (CPD) 2012-2016 responds to the Government’s development priorities and vision of attaining middle income country status by 2021, as stated in the Outline Perspective Plan 2010-2021 and ongoing Sixth Five Year Plan (2011-2015). The present CPD focuses on three areas: (a) democratic governance and human rights; (b) pro-poor growth with equity; and (c) climate change, environment, disaster risk reduction and response.

In line with the Country Programme Evaluation Plan 2012-2016 agreed with the Economic Relation Division of the Ministry of finance, a mid-term outcome evaluation is carried out to assess UNDP’s support towards achieving outcome 2.1:

  • Economic growth is achieved in a more inclusive manner, with economic opportunities reaching the rural and urban poor and the protection of vulnerable groups against shocks;

Bangladesh’s Human Development Index continued its upward trend, rising to 0.515 in 2013 (a 1 percent increase from 2012) and reaching a rank of 146. Bangladesh’s Gender Inequality Index was even better at 0.518, with a global ranking of 111 in 2013. However, Bangladesh’s Multidimensional-Poverty Index was static and high at 0.292, with a headcount ratio of 57.8 percent (one of the highest in the region). According to IMF reports, economic growth in 2013 is expected to have slowed to around 5.5 percent from a trend rate of around 6.5 percent over the last few years. This is below the target of 7.5 percent annual growth, the target that the government set to move Bangladesh to middle-income status by 2021. Inflation has remained moderate at 7.1 percent (5.6 percent for food items). These inflation trends tend to balance the growth impact on poverty.

In the post-conflict Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT), UNDP technical and financial support to local institutions and communities led to improvements in poor people’s lives and livelihoods. School enrolment in UNDP-supported areas increased to 90% in 2013 (49% in 2009); over 95% of children successfully completed primary level education. The number of women with access to qualified midwives for childbirth rose to 22.5%, compared to 12% in 2008 (CHT Household Survey, 2013). At the policy level, culminating years of on-the-ground experiences to improve social welfare systems and people’s lives, UNDP and its partners’ combined approach of advocacy, technical support, strong government partnership and South-South cooperation resulted in preparing the country’s first National Social Protection Strategy (now termed as the National Social Security Strategy).

The main thrust of the Outcome 2.1 is to enhance the ability of the poor, especially women, to participate in the economy through better targeted employment and training opportunities, and to improve social protection systems through safety nets and access to micro-insurance. To this end, UNDP has been working at both the downstream and policy levels with relevant United Nations agencies, such as ILO, UNIDO and other development partners. UNDP strategy downstream is to focus on targeted interventions on labor-intensive sectors, vulnerable groups and economically deprived areas. This is complemented by policy interventions that include MDGs-based planning methods and the promotion of pro-poor trade and foreign direct investment.

The estimated resource envelope for the UNDP Bangladesh Country Programme 2012-2016 is US$ 553.6 million, where the indicative budget of the Outcome 2.1 comprises 45.5% (US$ 252 million) of the overall CPD envelop. Till July 2014, the Outcome 2.1 has mobilized 52.4% (US$ 132.1million) of its planned budget from UNDP core resources as well as from its development partners.

Duties and Responsibilities

Objectives

Evaluation Purpose

Purpose: The purpose of this mid-term outcome evaluation is to take stock of achievements to date, document lessons learned and propose ways to correct the course of intervention for the next two years of the country programme cycle.

Timing: The mid-term evaluation is conducted in the second half of 2014 because it is the penultimate year to the MDG deadline, and the midway point of the 2012–2016 CPD/UNDAF. The timing is in line with the CPD/UNDAF Evaluation Plan 2012-2016, which foresees that UNDP Bangladesh undertakes a mid-term outcome evaluation on the CPD Outcome 2.1 in 2014. The timing of the evaluation also ensures that evaluation results will be key input into the UNDAF mid-term review scheduled for early 2015.

Utilization: The evaluation results are to be utilized by not only UNDP Bangladesh but also by the government partners as well as other key development partners/donors. They will also become critical inputs to the UNDAF mid-term review scheduled in early 2015, where UNDP acts as lead agency in four UNDAF pillars and this outcome contributes directly to UNDAF Pillar 2 and indirectly to Pillar 5. The mid-term outcome evaluation also aims to identify which UNDP approaches have worked well and which have faced challenges, use lessons learned to improve future initiatives and generate knowledge for wider use at all levels (corporate, regional and country) and serve as a means of quality assurance and hold UNDP accountable for the resources invested in its work as well as for its national partners and stakeholders. Notably, the evaluation will become critical inputs for the alignment of UNDP’s new Strategic Plan (SP) 2014-2017. Following the evaluation conclusions and recommendations pertinent to UNDP, UNDP Bangladesh will prepare a management response and implement follow-up actions through the UNDP Evaluation Resource Centre (ERC).

Scope of work

Evaluation Objectives and Scope

Objectives: The mid-term outcome evaluation will primarily assist UNDP Bangladesh in assessing its effectiveness in progressing towards the outcome. The evaluation will assess if economic growth is achieved in a more inclusive manner now compared to prior to the start of the country programme in 2012, if economic opportunities are better reaching the rural and urban poor and if vulnerable groups are better protection against shocks. This includes an assessment on the causal linkage if and/or by which outputs contribute to the achievement of the outcome and the extent to which the planned outcome has been achieved and likely to be achieved by the end of 2016. It will assess both negative and positive factors that facilitate and/or hinder the progress in achieving the outcome including the external environment, weaknesses in design, management and resources. In addition, the evaluation will assess the relevance, efficiency, effectiveness and potential sustainability of UNP’s interventions on the rural and urban poor, their economic opportunities and the protection of vulnerable groups against shocks.

Scope: The mid-term outcome evaluation covers a time span from January 2012 - the beginning of the CPD cycle - up to the outset of the evaluation. It will focus on the geographic area covered by the projects in the outcome areas. While there have been 10 programmes/projects implemented under the outcome 2.1 during the CPD cycle, this evaluation focuses on key programmes and projects which contributed directly to achieving the outcomes. This includes projects and programmes that started prior to 2012 but continued into 2012 and beyond. The primary stakeholders include government institutes directly involved with project implementation: Ministry of Local Government, Rural Development and Cooperatives, Ministry of Local Government, General Economics Division, Ministry of Chittagong Hill Tracts Affairs. Other constituencies include civil society organizations, academia and direct beneficiaries such as ethnic minorities.

Evaluation Questions

The following evaluation questions help define the information that the evaluation will generate. The evaluation questions are formulated and clustered to address the primary evaluation criteria and the effectiveness criteria will be weighted most from other criteria in this evaluation to demonstrate how UNDP initiatives have or have not contributed to the achievement of the outcome. The evaluation questions may be adjusted upon consultations and discussions with the programme cluster during the inception phase.

Outcome 2.1.: Economic growth is achieved in a more inclusive manner, with economic opportunities reaching the rural and urban poor and the protection of vulnerable groups against shocks.      

The outcome formulation contains different elements. That is why the outcome formulation needs to answer evaluation questions from at least three perspectives:

  • Inclusive economic growth;
  • Economic opportunities for rural and urban poor;
  • Protection against shocks for vulnerable groups.

Relevance of UNDP's involvement and approach:

  • To what extent are UNDP's key poverty programmes and projects relevant to achieve inclusive growth, opportunities for rural and urban poor and protection against shocks?

Effectiveness in contributing to the achievement of the outcome):

  • Compared to 2011, is economic growth now more inclusive?
  • Compared to 2011, do rural and urban poor now have more economic opportunities?
  • Compared to 2011, are vulnerable groups now better protected against shocks?
  • To what extent are these changes due to UNDP's interventions?

Efficiency in delivering outputs:

  • To what extent were the key poverty programme or project outputs delivered in time and in good quality?
  • To what extent did UNDP ensure value for money?
  • Has there been any duplication of efforts among UNDP’s own interventions and interventions delivered by other organizations or entities in contributing to the outcome?

Sustainability of the outcome:

  • What indications are there that the outcome will be sustained after external funding ends?

In addition, the evaluation should also consider if and how UNDP promoted gender equality, human rights and human development in the delivery of outputs.

Methodology

The suggested approach and method for conducting this evaluation is to use a multi-level, mixed-method approach. This includes collecting both quantitative and qualitative data sets on multiple levels that will need to be validated and triangulated. The overall guidance on evaluation methodologies is found in the UNDP Handbook on Planning, Monitoring and Evaluating for Development Results. It is for the evaluation team to examine and determine the specific design and methods for this mid-term outcome evaluation during the initial inception period in close consultation with the programme Cluster. During the inception phase, the evaluation team will elaborate a detailed methodology how to answer each evaluation question.

The following data collection methods and secondary data sources are, but should not be limited to:

  • Desk reviews of relevant documents (CPD, UNDAF, relevant project documents, reports of relevant flagship projects, project surveys, studies relating to the country context and situation, evaluation reports, etc.);
  • Key informant interviews and/or focus group discussions with beneficiaries or representatives of beneficiaries, government partners both at the central and local levels;
  • Development partners/donors including bilateral and multilateral partners; other UN agencies, NGOs, and CSOs working to contribute to the same outcome;
  • UNDP Country Office’s senior management, programme, and project staff, etc. The selection of interview partners should follow a deliberate purposive sampling strategy;
  • Direct observations during visits to national implementingpartners and field visits;
  • Gap analysis and review of administrative and survey data collected by the project and other stakeholders, including the CPD outcome indicators and the new corporate Strategic Plan (SP) 2014-2017 indicators;
  • 2 studies on Multidimensional Poverty in Urban Bangladesh (baseline study for 7 towns from 2009, follow-up survey from 2014) using the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) methodology and a comparison with the 2010 Household Income and Expenditure Survey for Bangladesh now I say measuring women’s empowerment in UPPR in 2014;
  • UPPR surveys from Socio-Economic Fund(SEF) and the Settlements Improvement Fund (SIF);
  • Building confidence, creating livelihoods Study of short term outcomes for apprenticeship and block grants recipients of UPPR;
  • The right to be safe and healthy: Study of short term outcomes for households using improved water and sanitation sources of UPPR; Socio-Economic Baseline Survey of Chittagong Hill Tracts, 2008, and follow-up survey in 2013. The evaluation team is expected to review existing data sets from programmes/projects and the national statistics relevant to this outcome evaluation, and identify what/where the gaps exist for the CO in aggregating the data and monitoring the CPD and the Strategic Plan indicators for the rest of the monitoring cycles (till 2016 for the CPD and 2017 for the Strategic Plan);
  • Quantitative analysis of budgets and expenditure reports in ATLAS and project reports;
  • Administration of surveys or questionnaires, as applicable.

The data collection methods should be participatory and inclusive of disadvantaged and marginalized populations. Major methodological limitations or limitations based on data collections should be noted in the final evaluation report.

Evaluation Team Composition and Required Competencies

The evaluation team will comprise 3 members a team leader, an evaluation expert and a data analyst. The presence of an international consultant is deemed desirable given the complexity and sensitivity of some of the issues concerned, and therefore to safeguard independence and impartiality of the evaluation.

Expected outputs/deliverables

The consultant, working closely with other evaluation team members, is responsible for submitting the following deliverables to UNDP Bangladesh at the agreed work plan:

  • Inception Report: An inception report should be prepared by the evaluators before going into the full-fledged data collection exercise. It should detail the evaluators’ understanding of what is being evaluated and why, showing how each evaluation question will be answered by way of: proposed methods, proposed sources of data and data collection procedures. The inception report should elaborate and finalize the evaluation matrix and a proposed schedule of tasks, activities and deliverables, designating a team member with the lead responsibility for each task or product. The inception report provides the programme Cluster and the evaluators with an opportunity to verify that they share the same understanding about the evaluation and clarify any misunderstanding at the outset. The inception report should follow the structure proposed in the UNDP Outcome-Level Evaluation A Companion Guide, Annex 1, p.31.

Draft Evaluation Report:

  • The evaluation report should follow the structure outlined in the UNDP Outcome-Level Evaluation: A Companion Guide, p. 29-30. The programme Cluster and key stakeholders in the evaluation should review the draft evaluation report to ensure that the evaluation answers in depth all evaluation questions and backs up the arguments with credible and sufficient quantitative and qualitative evidence. The draft evaluation report should not exceed 40 pages without annexes;

Presentation:

  • Debriefing with stakeholders to present key findings and recommendations and collect feedbacks.

Final Evaluation Report:

  • The final report will reflect the comments and feedback from stakeholders, including feedback provided during the presentation.

Evaluation Brief:

  • A concise summary of the evaluation findings in plain language that can be widely circulated. This can be in a form of a PowerPoint presentation or a two-page briefing document.

Data Review Report:

  • The report is a supplementary document to the final evaluation report describing, but not limited to, 1) an analysis and findings on data gaps and availability of independently verifiable sources in monitoring the CPD and the Strategic Plan indicators among existing national statistics, administrative and project data sets relevant to this CPD outcome  evaluation and 2) recommendations on how to maximize the use of existing project data and how to fill in the gaps of information between now and 2016/2017 (the CPD and the Strategic Plan respectively). The report should not exceed 10 pages without annexes.

Supervision and performance evaluation

Implementation Arrangement

This evaluation is commissioned by UNDP Bangladesh. The Poverty Reduction Cluster in the Country Office will be responsible for coordinating and managing the evaluation throughout the entire process and provide the evaluation team any logistics and administrative support as needed. The Results and Resource Management Cluster (RRMC) will serve as quality assurance to provide overall technical guidance and ensure the corporate compliance of outcome evaluations. The consultant will be under direct supervision of the head of the Poverty Reduction Cluster in close consultation with the RRMC. In order to guide the evaluation process and assure quality, an evaluation reference group is planned to be formed from approximately five members from the Cluster, the Country Office, key stakeholders, the Regional Bureau for Asia and the Pacific or the Independent Evaluation Office, where the members are asked to provide inputs on the ToR, selection of consultants, inception report, draft report and the final report.

Evaluation Ethics

Evaluations in UNDP will be conducted in accordance with the principles outlined in the UNEG ‘Ethical Guidelines for Evaluation’. Evaluators should ensure to be in compliance with evaluation ethics and procedures to safeguard the rights and confidentiality of information providers during the designing, implementing and managing evaluation activities.

Period of the Assignment / Service

This evaluation assignment is contracted for a total period of 30 days and should be completed by December 7, 2014. The following activities should commence within four weeks of signing the contract:

  • Comprehensive literature review and analysis of background data including project documents, project/Country Office/UNDAF progress reports, annual reviews, evaluation reports and other key documents (Home based -02 days);
  • Briefing and kick-off meeting with UNDP staff from respective Cluster(s) and RRMC (Dhaka-01 day);
  • Prepare and submit the inception report including the adjusted work plan, an evaluation matrix and other items as in the Companion Guide(Dhaka -02 days);
  • Conduct data collection and analysis, interviews, site visits, stakeholder meetings, workshops, etc. in the country (Dhaka and outside of Dhaka -15 days);
  • Prepare and submit the draft evaluation report to UNDP (Dhaka-05 Days);
  • Debrief with key stakeholders and present key findings and recommendations; collect feedback from the debriefing workshop (Dhaka-01 Day);
  • Incorporate comments from key stakeholders, respective Cluster(s) and the government partners (Dhaka -03 Days);
  • Finalize and submit the final evaluation report and evaluation brief to UNDP (Dhaka-01 Days).

Inputs

UNDP Bangladesh will provide office space and transport to field sites and will also arrange meetings and consultations to ensure access to key stakeholders. The Poverty Reduction Cluster will provide key documents and data relevant to the evaluation. No laptop will be provided.

Tentative Payment Schedule:

  • 50% upon submission of the draft evaluation report;
  • 50% upon submission of the final evaluation report.

Competencies

Corporate Competencies:

  • Demonstrates integrity by modeling the UN’s values and ethical standards (human rights, peace, understanding between peoples and nations, tolerance, integrity, respect, results orientation (UNDP core ethics) impartiality;
  • Promotes the vision, mission, and strategic goals of UNDP;
  • Displays cultural, gender, religion, race, nationality and age sensitivity and adaptability.

Functional Competencies:

  • Knowledge and experience with programming development, monitoring and evaluation;
  • Consistently approaches work with energy and a positive, constructive attitude;
  • Demonstrates openness to change, flexibility, and ability to manage complexities;
  • Ability to work under pressure and with multi-disciplinary and multicultural teams and possess excellent inter-personal skills;
  • Demonstrates strong written and oral communication skills;
  • Remains calm, in control and good humored even under pressure;
  • Proven networking, team-building, organizational and communication skills;
  • Ability to establish priorities for self and others, and to work independently.

Required Skills and Experience

Education:

  • A master’s degree in economics, public policy, development studies or relevant discipline; Ph.D. an asset.

Experience:

  • Minimum 10 years of technical expertise in the field of economics, public policy, development studies or relevant areas;
  • Experience in conducting evaluations at programme and/or outcome levels in related fields with international organizations, development aid agencies, and/or NGOs;
  • Experience in implementing a range of qualitative and quantitative data collection techniques and methods in programme evaluations;
  • Good knowledge of UNDP’s mandate and the political, cultural and economic contexts of the region.

Language:

  • Fluency in English.

Financial Proposal

Total lump sum

The financial proposal shall specify a total lump sum amount, and payment terms around specific and measurable (qualitative and quantitative) deliverables (i.e. whether payments fall in installments or upon completion of the entire contract). Payments are based upon output, i.e. upon delivery of the services specified in the TOR. sIn order to assist the requesting unit in the comparison of financial proposals, the financial proposal will include a breakdown of this lump sum amount (including travel, per diems, and number of anticipated working days).

Evaluation of the Candidates

Individual consultants will be evaluated based on the following methodology.

Cumulative analysis

The candidates will be evaluated through Cumulative Analysis method. The award of the contract will be made to the individual consultant whose offer has been evaluated and determined as:

  • Responsive/compliant/acceptable; and
  • Having received the highest score out of a pre-determined set of weighted technical and financial criteria specific to the solicitation.

Only candidates obtaining a minimum of 49 points in the technical evaluation would be considered for Financial Evaluation.

Technical Evaluation Criteria (Total 70 marks):

  • Solid technical expertise in the field of economics, public policy, development studies or relevant areas (40 marks);
  • Previous experience in conducting evaluations at programme and/or outcome levels in related fields with international organizations, development aid agencies, and/or NGOs (30 marks).

Financial Evaluation (Total 30 marks):

All technical qualified proposals will be scored out 30 based on the formula provided below. The maximum points (30) will be assigned to the lowest financial proposal. All other proposals received points according to the following formula:

p = y (µ/z)

Where:

p = points for the financial proposal being evaluated

y = maximum number of points for the financial proposal

µ = price of the lowest priced proposal

z = price of the proposal being evaluated

Documents to be included when submitting the proposals

Interested individual consultants must submit the following documents/information to demonstrate their qualifications in one single PDF/Word file:

  • Personal CV that provides a detailed description of pervious relevant experiences and technical expertise pertaining to this particular assignment.