UNDP Jobs - 49515- National Consultant to Conduct Evaluation for the

National Consultant to Conduct Evaluation for the Project: Support to Poverty Analysis and Monitoring at MOPIC and DOS: Thinking Differently about Poverty and the Poor - Phase II

Location :

Amman, JORDAN

Type of Contract :

Individual Contract

Starting Date :

15-Oct-2014

Application Deadline :

06-Oct-14 (Midnight New York, USA)

Post Level :

National Consultant

Duration of Initial Contract :

15 working days

Languages Required :

Arabic English

Expected Duration of Assignment :

15 working days

UNDP is committed to achieving workforce diversity in terms of gender, nationality and culture. Individuals from minority groups, indigenous groups and persons with disabilities are equally encouraged to apply. All applications will be treated with the strictest confidence. UNDP does not tolerate sexual exploitation and abuse, any kind of harassment, including sexual harassment, and discrimination. All selected candidates will, therefore, undergo rigorous reference and background checks.

Background

Phase II initiatives were designed to provide direct support to the National Agenda 2006 – 2015 poverty alleviation initiatives 2, 3, 4 and 6 as follows: 2. Develop a comprehensive national social policy with a focus on social development and productivity enhancement; 3. Strengthen human resource capacities to implement poverty alleviation programs; 4. Develop a clear understanding of poverty root causes and characteristics; 6. Provide assistance to the unemployed poor to integrate into the workforce. The main objectives of this project are to assist the Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation, the Department of Statistics, and their social sector partners to develop the definitions, the measurement and information tools, the analytical and technical capacity, and the coordination mechanisms that will be needed to respond to the challenges of the next decade created by the rising “social risks” of vulnerability and exclusion that are likely to confront the Kingdom.

The Jordan Poverty Report published by the Department of Statistics in July 2010, showed an increase in poverty rates in the Kingdom from 13.0% in 2006 to 13.3% in 2008, indicating that the Jordanian social safety net was able to buffer, but not reverse the effects of the global economic crisis. The report also showed a substantial increase in the number of poverty pockets (sub-governorates with 25% population or more below national poverty line) from 22 pockets to 32 pockets over the same period. In analyzing the geographical distribution of the poor in the Kingdom, the Report reveals a complex picture indicating that while higher concentrations of poor families live in the poverty pockets, the overwhelming majority of the poor live outside of them. While only 8.3% of the population of Amman governorate lives under the poverty line, 24.5% of the total poor population of Jordan live within Amman governorate. The Report shows that Amman, Irbid and Zarqa, the three most densely populated governorates in Jordan, are home to 57% of persons living under the poverty line. Given the continuing pressures which drive rural-to-urban migration in Jordan, this pattern is likely to persist.

In addition to the trend of poverty becoming more concentrated in urban and densely populated areas, the global economic crisis is reflected in an increasing depth of poverty. A comparative analysis of the Household Expenditure and Income Survey (HEIS) 2006 and 2008 in the Jordan Poverty Report 2010 shows that between 2006 and 2008, households experienced a shift in consumption patterns driven by the rising cost of fuel and transportation. As a result, average household consumption of meat and poultry declined by 42%, and of vegetables declined by 20%, suggesting a rising trend in food insecurity. This decline in household expenditures on essential food items was accompanied by a decline in the share of household expenditures on school-related expenses. Within the same period, the real incomes of the poorest quartile declined by 8.5%, while those of the richest quartile declined by only 0.9%, indicating an increasing gap in real income between the well-off and poorest segments of Jordanian society between 2006 and 2008.

The 2010 Jordan Poverty Report applies poverty line of JD 680 (approximately USD960) per capita annually, based on the 2008 HEIS. This monetized caloric intake-based poverty line follows previous national poverty lines of JD 315 per person per annum in 1992, followed by JD 392 and JD 556, for 2002 and 2006, respectively. In order to survive, the HEIS 2008 indicated an average person would need JD 32 (approximately USD 45) to purchase sufficient food products to maintain a minimum caloric intake and JD24 (approximately USD34) for non-food products, for a total per person per month minimum necessary income of around JD56 (approximately USD79). This figure, applied to an average household size of 5.4 persons, amounts to JD 306 (USD 432) as the minimum necessary monthly income for a family of five to survive. The current minimum wage is set at JD 150 (USD 212). Even if two adult members of an average household were to hold full-time minimum wage jobs, household income would still remain below the poverty line. These factors, together with a regressive (sales) tax, suppress effective demand in high poverty areas, creating a negative environment for micro-credit and small-business enterprise-based employment generation schemes, among other problems.

Given continuing rural-to-urban migration, the world market-price driven shift in household consumption patterns away from food and education, and the growing wedge between the poverty line and the minimum wage, poverty constitutes a key challenge facing socio-economic policy makers in Jordan today.

In recognition of this challenge, the government of Jordan included a theme on poverty alleviation in the National Agenda 2006-2015, and proposed a number of policies and initiatives aimed at reducing poverty to be addressed through executive programmes and action plans.

The National Agenda identified the following initiatives to achieve poverty reduction:

Create a National Council for Development and Poverty Alleviation;
Develop a comprehensive national social policy with a focus on social development and productivity enhancement;
Strengthen human resources capacities to implement poverty alleviation programs;
Develop a clear understanding of the poverty root causes and characteristics;
Restructure the National Aid Fund;
Provide assistance to the unemployed poor to integrate in the workforce;
Upgrade social skills of welfare workers;
Increase penetration of microfinance services in poor communities;
Expand village cluster programs and services in rural areas.

The Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation and the Ministry of Social Development then embarked on a joint initiative to formulate a new poverty alleviation strategy based on the previous strategy, the National Agenda, and the National Executive programme.

The 2010 Poverty Report is based on the Household Expenditure and Income Survey (HEIS) of 2008.

The shift in consumption was driven by the phasing out of oil subsidies in 2007 combined with significant increases in world energy prices. The resulting cut-back in nutritional intake illustrates the absence of any compensatory buffering margin in the household budgets of the poor. Although the subsidies have recently been partially restored, high current food and energy prices largely cancel any net positive effect.

The program objectives were:

The main objectives of this project are to assist the Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation, the Department of Statistics, and their social sector partners to develop the definitions, the measurement and information tools, the analytical and technical capacity, and the coordination mechanisms that will be required to respond to the challenges of the next decade created by the rising “social risks” of vulnerability and exclusion that are likely to confront the Kingdom.

Phase I of the project achieved a solid base of outputs, which include:

The establishment of a Poverty Statistics Division at the Department of Statistics (DOS), which is now part of the permanent organizational structure of DOS with six staff members, including a head of the division;
The introduction of multidimensional poverty measurement to move beyond simple indicators of economic deprivation by applying the “unmet basic needs” approach to develop a “Living Standard Index” (LSI) for Jordan. The resulting LSI indicators were introduced in the 2010 Household Expenditure and Income Survey;
The creation of a computerized Management Information System (MIS) in the Programmes and Projects Directorate (PPD) for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation to consolidate Line Ministry administrative input/output and budget data to monitor implementation of the National Executive Programme at the sector, program and project level.

Phase II of the project proposes to build upon this foundation as follows:

Support the Poverty Statistics Division of the Department of Statistics and the Policies and Strategies Directorate of the Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation in conducting and carrying out the statistical analysis of a supplementary social data pilot module survey to measure vulnerability risk and social exclusion and add relevant indicators to complement the Living Standards Index (LSI) created under Phase I; support a shift from the current money-metric caloric-intake based poverty line to a more differentiated poverty line or lines which are more compatible with the LSI and the concepts of risk, vulnerability, and social exclusion and Jordan’s future development path as a middle income country;
Broaden the potential of the Management Information System by creating a separate, fully compatible database of social sector Ministry administrative data to provide outcome and impact monitoring to complement the current National Development Plan input/output monitoring system. Support the development of a set of MIS-based “sensitive indicators” to provide the Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation, Monitoring with early warning system to support rapid assessment of emerging risks;
Support the Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation Social and Economic Productivity unit in the comparative analysis of multi-factor poverty risk and vulnerability; the Programme and Projects Directorate (PPD) in policy outcome and impact monitoring techniques; the Policies and Strategies department and its Line Ministry counterparts in improved methods of statistical literacy for evidence-based policy-making; as well as supporting the Ministry as a whole in its coordinating function in cooperation with the social sector Ministries, Agencies, charitable Funds and non-governmental actors in improving the design and delivery of social services.

These proposed Phase II initiatives are designed to provide direct support to the following National Agenda 2006 – 2015 poverty alleviation initiatives:

Develop a comprehensive national social policy with a focus on social development and productivity enhancement;
Strengthen human resource capacities to implement poverty alleviation programs;
Develop a clear understanding of poverty root causes and characteristics;
Provide assistance to the unemployed poor to integrate into the workforce; as well as the National Executive programme 2011-2013 themes listed above.

Duties and Responsibilities

Scope of Work

Within the context outlined above, UNDP seeks to recruit a national consultant to conduct an evaluation of the project: “Support to poverty analysis and monitoring at MOPIC and DOS: thinking differently about poverty and the poor – Phase II”

The scope of the evaluation should cover the following:

The project objectives, inputs, outputs and activities and their relevance to the outcome statement
Impact of the capacity building courses that were implemented;
Issues and challenges related to the implementation of the project;
Impact of socio-economic tools developed through the project duration on enhancing the government policies and strategies;
Impact of the project products and their sustainability after closing the project;
Level of cooperation and support of the responsible and relevant parties.

Methodology

The consultant is expected to work with the project consultant and with the Socio- Economic Analyst at UNDP Jordan. Based on the objectives and scope of work outlined above, the consultant is expected to undertake the following tasks during the evaluation process:

Review of relevant documents including: documents on national policies related to the project, the Project Document, progress reports, and all relevant other documentation related to implementation including: assessment reports and activity reports;
Conduct interviews and roundtable meetings with project stakeholders and partners;
Any other methods the consultant finds valuable to determine the best methods and tools for collecting and analyzing data.

Below are the required activities and expected outputs, based on the objectives and scope of work stated above, respective timelines/deadlines and number of working days.

Output: Evaluation inception report containing proposed methods, proposed sources of data, and data collection procedures, proposed schedule of tasks, activities and deliverables in addition to evaluation matrix - Timeline: After conclusion of necessary meetings, After Review of documents.Within 3 working days.

Output: A progress report on the evaluation process, Timeline: within 3 working days.

Output: Draft evaluation report: the report should include the following sections, Timeline: within 6 working days.

Title page;
List of acronyms and abbreviations;
Table of contents, including list of annexes;
Executive summary;
Introduction: background and context of the programme;
Description of the project – its logic theory, results framework and external factors likely to affect success;
Purpose of the evaluation; key questions and scope of the evaluation with information on limitations and de-limitations;
Approach and methodology;
Findings; summary and explanation of findings and interpretations;
Conclusions and recommendations; lessons learned;
Annexes.

Output:

Final evaluation report and debriefing meeting on evaluation results with stakeholders, Timeline: Within 5 working days

Competencies

Functional Competencies:

Ability to work under pressure against strict deadlines;
Ability to think out-of-the-box;
Ability to present complex issues persuasively and simply;
Ability to contextualize global trends in accordance with the dynamics of the operating (working) environment.

Required Skills and Experience

Education:

Advanced university degree in Economics, public administration, or related discipline.

Experience:

7 years’ experience in Poverty, Socio-Economic issues and specific experience in monitoring and evaluation;
Full computer literacy.

Language:

Fluency in English is required.

General professional experience:

Extensive experience in fields of project management, economics, statistics, social studies;
Solid knowledge of the Jordanian natural context, government structure and national policies;
Experience in evaluation.

Documents to be included when submitting the proposals

Interested individual consultants must submit the following documents/information to demonstrate their qualifications:

1. 2-3 page proposal:

Explaining why they are the most suitable for the work;
Provide a brief methodology on how they will approach and conduct the work (if applicable).

Lump sum financial proposal based on deliverables required.

Personal CV of the Principal Investigator and team members including past experience in similar projects and at least 3 references

Noting that, only applications which include the above, will be considered.