Background

UNDP’s overall progamme “Mitigating the Impact of the Syrian Refugee Crisis through Support to Host Communities”

Jordan experienced a large influx of refugees into the country since 2011, accelerating in 2012 when a sudden increase in Syrian refugees into the country was reported. The government estimates that more than 1.3 million Syrian refugees have officially entered its territory until December 2014.  The vast majority of the Syrian refugee population continues to be hosted outside the tented camps, in Jordanian communities. It is estimated that more than 80% of the refugees have settled in urban areas, whether with relatives or in rented housing.  According to the government estimates, most of the refugees outside the camps are concentrated in the governorates of Irbid, Mafraq, followed by Amman and Zarqa.

The influx of refugees from Syria in the north of Jordan has further resulted in availability constraints in jobs and income-generating opportunities.  The latest employment survey conducted by Department of Statistics shows that the unemployment rate for Jordanians has increased from 2012 to 2013 in the governorates of Mafraq (10.7 to 14.5%) and Irbid (11.7 to 13 %) with the highest Syrian densities.

The competition over employment opportunities – particularly of informal nature – due to the influx of Syrian refugees is prominent in sectors such as construction, wholesale and retail, food services and agriculture, where Syrian refugees are most likely to be employed without work permits for lower wages than the national minimum wage (190 JD per month and 150 JD per month for migrant legal workers) .  This indicates losses in revenue from work permit fees for the Government, as well as decline in wage rate affecting in particular unskilled and low earning Jordanians. 

The present crisis comes at a difficult time for Jordan. Despite many efforts to engage in economic stabilization and liberalization, the country faces real economic and social challenges. The expected budget deficit for 2014 reaches 4.3% of the GDP (foreign aids included), and 8.7% of GDP (foreign aid excluded).  The net national public debt has risen above the 60% legal limit to reach up to 80% of GDP by the end of 2014, with a foreign aid dependency rate of around 26.4% of the GDP in 2011.

The Jordanian economy is persisting high unemployment level (12.6%), and the specific patterns of its labor market that incurs an enduring mismatch between demand and supply. The Jordanian working age population is young and increasingly skilled. However, with only 38% of economically active population, Jordan has one of the lowest labor market participation rates in the world.

High competition with foreign laborers over income-generating activities adds pressure to unemployment issues in Mafraq and Irbid governorates. Jordanians complain about Syrians accepting below-market rate; it was widely reported by officials and community representatives that Syrian refugees were currently crowding and pushing out Jordanian workers in specific sectors, such as hospitality, retail sales, trade, construction, and some other sectors. The good perception of Syrians as skilled and hard workers, the lower wages they are ready to accept, including the aid they receive from humanitarian agencies, are the main reasons alleged to explain this phenomenon.

Given the protracted nature of the Syrian crisis and taking into account its social, economic and fiscal burden on the country, the need of a comprehensive, coordinated and durable response becomes a priority. Accordingly, UNDP-Jordan has kicked-off a pioneering programme entitled “Mitigating the Impact of Syrian Refugees Crisis on the Jordanian Vulnerable Host Communities” in April 2013 to help the Government of Jordan in alleviating the impact of Syrian refugees crisis and improving the standards of living for Jordanians in the host communities, specifically in Irbid & Mafraq. This project includes two main development components, i) Livelihoods, Employment & Income Generation and ii) Municipal & Local Governance Improvement.

Emergency Employment Project:

Under the pillar (i) Livelihoods, Employment & Income Generation, UNDP Jordan has launched the Emergency Employment project in order to address the short term income generation through implementing a wide variety of community priorities, ranging from infrastructure rehabilitations (irrigation works, environmental health, access roads, market places, etc), as well as the longer term job creation through microbusiness development. Women, and both female and male youth are specific focus groups for the project, as they are most affected by the current crisis and represent the most vulnerable groups within host communities.  It has been implemented in five municipalities (Um Al Jimmal, Sabha, Salhiah Hosha, Rehab, and Sama Sarhan) of Mafraq Governorate.

The project will provide opportunities for community based emergency employment and income generation through Cash for Work modality, while promoting individual savings and engaging emerging entrepreneurs in economic ventures based on compulsory savings, promoting social cohesion by encouraging members of the community to organize themselves into addressing host community basic needs through the improvement of social and economic infrastructure, and creating ownership at both individual and community levels. All interventions will be implemented through communities in a participatory manner, with a view to promote social cohesion at the local level.

The approach has been designed and framed into two phases.

First phase :

It focusses on the voluntarily participation for three to four months in community services to develop community-oriented projects aimed to stabilize livelihoods, reinforce social cohesion by working together.Voluntary community services provide immediate individual income (i.e. incentive) in the amount of 208 JD/month, injects money into local economies and helps revive the production and service sectors, which are potential sources of more sustainable income and employment. In addition to voluntary community services, participants often receive life and business skills training.

Participants in voluntary community services will save a proportion of their income (104JD: 50 % of the incentive) for the whole three months.If they chose to continue under Phase II, participants will be supported to develop a business plan and invest these savings in a small business project either individually or as part of a group.

Second phase :

Investment of individual (104 JDX 3 months=312 JD) or collective savings is multiplied by UNDP to 2,000 JD on the basis of evaluation of business plans to provide a higher level of start-up capital for economic activities (microbusinesses) that hold greatest potential for success. Economic activities (microbusinesses) are selected on the basis of whether they can be self-managed and economic viability.100 men and women (50 % against the total target) will be funded in the amount of 2,000 JD inclusive of the savings of 314 JD for microbusiness development.

It also supports the reinforcement of sustainability of microbusinesses, identification of best practices to attract partnerships, financing and market opportunities.The project facilitates the access to Microfinance Institution (MFI) loans and promotes the development of investment plans for expanding, specializing and/or diversifying the interventions.

Third phase:

Phase III is not time bound, with the interventions primality playing a facilitative or brokering role in order to ensure sustainable and resilient microbusinesses, as start-up is not sufficient to guarantee resilience as they require access to input, financial and markets to become profitable and sustainable. The phase III will provide them with targeted technical support in the form of higher levels of trainings, linkage with financial service providers, linkage with markets, continuous business counselling, and support for value addition- e.g. branding, packaging and other services. 

The project will pay a special attention to group businesses with support for the selected commodities in linking to local economic development, including the development of the associations and co-operatives, which is one of key success factors for the community-based businesses and also contributes to strengthen social cohesion in the community.   

Given that livelihoods consists predominantly livestock and dairy products in three municipalities of Um Al Jimmal, Sabha and Salhiah (First batch),  the project aims to provide the cluster-based support to the sector of dairy and livestock-related products.   This TOR is particularly on the commodity-based approach through value chain analysis on dairy products.

Duties and Responsibilities

Objective:   

 The aim of the study is to examine the existing value chain on dairy products in Mafraq and identify entry points to support value chain development including cooperative development.

• The primary objective of the assessment is to understand the current value chain on dairy products and livestock-related products including actors and systems;
• Identify opportunities and constraints for dairy products and processing opportunities in Mafraq Governorate, that have a high potential for employment creation and sustainable growth of microbusinesses and cooperatives in the sector;
• The study will provide recommendations on specific entry points for UNDP to support livelihoods initiatives in dairy products and livestock related products value chain in the rural areas of Mafraq.  

Research Methodology and Approach 

In order to analyze the dairy products and livestock related value chains in Mafraq and identify entry points for sustainable microbusinesses and cooperatives, the following four basic tasks should be carried out:

• Dairy products and livestock-related products value chain mapping:  to identify existing business operations and functions around dairy products; chain operators and their linkages, as well as the chain supporters within the value chain.  Value chain maps need to be developed as the core of analysis.

Key steps and questions:

• Visualize the three elements, presenting the micro, meso and macro level of value chain with a focus on Mafraq:

• The sequence of production and marketing functions related to dairy products and livestock-related products currently performed;

• The value chain key actors taking these functions; and

• The vertical business links between operators.
• Broad assessment quantifying and describing dairy products and livestock-related products volumes: to attach numbers to the basic chain map-e.g. numbers of actors, it will be important to identify the volume of produce and the market shares of particular segments in the dairy products chain, in order to make the map for decision making and planning.  The political and institutional and legal framework conditions around dairy products and livestock-related products enabling or hindering chain development should be addressed in this part of the analysis.

Key steps and questions:

Complementing the value chain map with quantitative information and analysis, the analysis should include:

• Number of existing and potential operators (differentiating size of enterprises);
• Market share and number of potentialemployees for each category of operators (gender segregated);
• Prices paid at each chain link between stages;
• Shares of product flow of the different sub-chains/distribution channels of solid waste;
• Market share of the value chain defined as percentage of the sales value in the overall market.
• Zoom in on the basic value chain map to generate thematic chain maps on dairy products and livestock-related products.
• Special value chain studies on the stakeholder groups specific for the poor as well as women and youth.

Economic analysis of dairy products and livestock-related products value chains to assess value chain performance in terms of economic efficiency. This includes determining the value added along the stages of the value chain, the cost of production and, to the extent possible, the income of operators. In addition to that, this part of the analysis should look into the transaction costs, such as the cost of doing business related to dairy products and livestock-related products, collecting information and enforcing contracts. The economic performance of a value chain should be benchmarked-i.e. the value of important parameters to be those of competing chains in other countries in the region if analyzed relevant.

Market research on dairy products and livestock-related goods and services: This part of the assessment should look into the growth potential on goods and services and identify market opportunities and formulate an upgrading and objectives action in line with demand condition specific for women and youth. 

Key steps and questions:

Demand analysis of the dairy products and livestock-related value chain in Mafraq:

• Demand of final consumers of products
• Demand of industrial customers and exporters

Demand trend analysis:

• Recent trend demand over time (in terms of value, volume, variety)

Growth potential:

• Positive/potential growth trend of the dairy products and livestock-related products value chain and unmet market demand;
• Scope for expanding productions and value-addition through processing or product improvement;
• Competitive advantage of the dairy products and livestock-related value chain (unique product/local specialty, low cost of production), in particular for the ones from Mafraq;
• Share of poor people, women and youth that can be employed in the value chain;
• Low entry barriers for small-scale and poor entrepreneurs (low start-up cost, not requiring major capital investment, using low-tech skills);
• Covering locations where poor population live;
• Offering chances for women;
• Significance for the rural economy.

The conditions of market access:

• Existing distribution channels (e.g. middle men, industry, export or end consumer markets;
• Power of market participants (e.g. monopolies);
• Infrastructure of roads and market places (e.g. storage facilities);
• Products standards (e.g. laws/regulations on product safety);
• Tax and tariff regimes (e.g. customs tariffs on inputs);
• Service offers facilitating market access (e.g. financial and information services).

Products profiles -e.g. local cheese, butter etc.:

• Availability in the market (domestic and/or imported);
• Processed by the Jordanian industry for the domestic and/or export market;
• Possible new products having a market potential in Jordan.

Market access requirement :

• Types of products in demand;
• Market size and trends (e.g. volumes traded, consumption of different consumer groups);
• Product prices (e.g. max and minimum prices, price trends, fluctuations, price range);
• Requirements of buyers in terms of quality, price, volume and reliability.

The competitors and performance:

• Competing producers and value chains (e.g. imports, supplies from other regions);
• Performance of competing market participants (e.g. quality, price)
• Competitive advantages of competitors (e.g. market distance)
• Competing products (e.g. products currently used);

SWOT analysis on the dairy products in Jordan, including, amongst others, and provide :

• processing capacities and technology;
• Physical infrastructure;
• Technical barriers to process products;
• Marketing services;
• Policy and regulatory impediments, administrative requirements.

Entry points of intervention to facilitate upgrading of dairy products value chain targeting women and youth in particular, based on the information of the value chain analysis.  In particular, it is crucial to understand how to upgrade the status, income, productivity, through developing pre-cooperatives etc.

• Analyze opportunities and constraints to the dairy products and livestock-related products chain upgrading;
• Formulate potential matrix on prioritized interventions, using market for poor approach.

Key steps and questions:

In order to conduct the above tasks, scope of work will include: 

• Review available literature;
• Interview key players of both governmental (e.g. Municipalities, Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Industry and Trade etc.)and non-governmental entities (NGOs and companies who have ongoing activities);
• Interview existing and emerging microbusinesses on dairy products and livestock-related products, including the beneficiaries from the UNDP emergency employment project
• Locate major markets of dairy products and livestock-related products.

Key deliverables :

• Reports on dairy products and livestock-related products value chain analysis, including quantified value chain maps and economic analysis of dairy product value chains, focusing on Mafraq Governorate;
• Reports on dairy products value chain market assessment, including critical gaps and potential livelihoods and employment creation;
• Action plan with timelines on prioritized interventions for UNDP with a focus on cooperative development and its sustainable growth.

Competencies

Core:

Innovation

• Ability to make new and useful ideas work.

Leadership

• Ability to persuade others to follow.

People Management

• Ability to improve performance and satisfaction.

Communication

• Ability to listen, adapt, persuade and transform.

Delivery

• Ability to get things done.

Report and Brief Writing

• Ability to prepare quality reports and briefs.

Technical/Functional:

Primary:

Jobs  and Livelihoods

• Knowledge of livelihoods and the ability to apply to strategic and/or practical situations.

Economic Recovery

• Knowledge of Economic Recovery concepts and the ability to apply to strategic and/or practical situations.

Entrepreneurship

• Knowledge of Entrepreneurship in the developing world and ability to apply to strategic and/or practical situations.

Research

• Knowledge of various programme information for research to provide recommendation and guidance to management.

Partnerships

• Ability to engage with other agencies, donors, and other development stakeholders and forge productive working relationships;

Knowledge Management

• Ability to capture, develop, share and effectively use information and knowledge.

Required Skills and Experience

Education:

• A Bachelor’s degree in economics, development, livelihoods and private sector development, social development, sociology/anthropology, gender in development or any related field;
• A Master’s degree is a plus.

Experience:

• 8 years of work experience in analysis of market, in particular value chain analysis; community and business network relationships; industrial processing; assessing industrial markets and pricing policies;
• Experience in/with private sector is an asset.

Language Requirements:

• Fluency in English and Arabic.