Historique

One of the major drivers of economic growth in Africa, over the past decade, is commodity boom. Most African countries experienced appreciable growth to the extent that sub-Saharan Africa was rated as the second fastest growing region globally between 2000 and 2010.  Over the past one year, however, the rising trend of commodity prices is giving way to a declining trend. Most of the primary commodities such as gold, iron ore, crude oil, cotton and cereal that have been sustaining most countries have experienced tumbling prices since October 2013.The fall in prices ranges from about 9.3% in cereal to about 40.3% in iron ore – a double tragedy for the three Ebola epicenter countries that rely heavily on iron ore. Cocoa is, however, one of the few exceptions with a rising trend over the same period – about 18%.The unfolding development is posing some challenges to national governments in terms of resources to fund development projects and running costs. In some countries, it has started to manifest in the form of macroeconomic imbalances such as decline in external reserves, fall national currencies, increase in budget deficits,  and rise in public debts, to mention a few.  Some countries have been struggling to pay salaries of public servants over the past months. This could also affect capacity to sustain social protection programmes for the vulnerable and marginalized groups, which is considered to be critical in the continent’s transformation agenda in the years ahead.

Objectives

The UNDP Regional Bureau for Africa (RBA) wants to examine the implications of changes in commodity prices over the past one year on African economies (at the sub-national, national and regional levels) and to consider the emerging opportunities for UNDP.   The study is to look at the regional and national dimensions using evidences from countries as case studies.  This paper should be policy oriented with strategic advice on how to better diversify the continent’s economies.

Devoirs et responsabilités

Key outlines of the report:

• This section justifies the paper with strong rationale for and the imperatives of the policy paper, key objectives with adequate problem statement and key research questions and hypotheses. Identify 1-2 primary commodities serving as major foreign exchange earners and review the trend over the past two years;
• Lessons from the past commodity changes in Africa: Key issues to address include trend analysis of terms of trade and commodity prices movements in Africa; policy issues articulated to address the issues and associated successes (including extent of economic diversifications in Africa), etc. What are the key lessons and opportunities from the past experiences on terms of trade and commodity price movements in Africa?
• The New Wave of Commodity Price movements in Africa: Magnitudes, dimensions and drivers. This section should also include articulation of overarching implications for African countries (macroeconomic and sectoral policy management – e.g. impact on national budgets) with concrete examples from the case studies provided in the attachment; specific actions taken by governments to cope with or address this development;
• Emerging policy options: What are the possible policy recommendations that should be put in place to effectively manage this fall in commodity process? How can Africa use this development as an opportunity to fully operationalize economic transformation through pragmatic economic diversification?What specific opportunities does this development create for UNDP in terms of advisory services and programmatic interventions?
• Summary and conclusions: This should provide some key messages, striking conclusions, and policy highlights.

Key deliverables:

• Draft report by 6 February 2015;
• Final report incorporating comments and feedbacks from UNDP by 13 March 2015.

        The assignment is for with in 14 work days  between 1 February  2015 and 14 March  2015.

Compétences

Corporate Competencies:

• Demonstrated commitment to UN’s mission, vision and values including working in a culturally diverse environment.
• Displays cultural, gender, religion, race, nationality and age sensitivity and adaptability.
• Demonstrates ability to function in a team environment and shares knowledge and experience.

Functional Competencies:

• Excellent oral and writing skills with strong academic and policy experience;
• Capacity to interact with senior officials of government, donors, CSOs, etc.;
• Outstanding analytical and negotiations skills. Ability to present coherent and convincing positions both in writing and orally. There must be evidence of similar works done in the past on issues of poverty and inequality;
• Strong ability to take initiative to move complex processes forward to achieve articulated results, work at varying levels and on different initiatives simultaneously (personal organization and ability for multi-tasking). The consultant must also possess ability to work under pressure and to accommodate change;
• Demonstrable networking capability, interpersonal skills and strong ability to promote team work.

Qualifications et expériences requises