Antecedentes

UNDP Indonesia's mission is to be an agent for change in the human and social development of Indonesia. We aim to be a bridge between Indonesia and all donors as well as a trusted partner to all stakeholders. We work in four key areas of development: Governance Reforms, Pro-Poor Policy Reforms, Conflict Prevention and Recovery, and Environment Management, with the overarching aim of reducing poverty in Indonesia. Besides the four priority areas, UNDP Indonesia is also engaged in a variety of crosscutting initiatives focused on HIV/AIDS, gender equality, and information and technology for development.

For the second time in a decade, Indonesia has been hit by a financial crisis. The Asia Pacific region is more vulnerable to crisis because it is integrated through financial, trade and investment flows into the global financial system and is thus susceptible to shocks and instabilities. Currently, a large number of the Indonesian population is living just under the poverty line. They are highly vulnerable to shocks and dependent on government assistance. The crisis has the potential to significantly impact these people and push those who are near poor down into poverty. The crisis threatens to undermine the Government’s ability to meet its poverty and employment targets and reverse important MDG achievements already gained by Indonesia.

Prospects for Indonesia in 2009 indicate that the country will not be buffered by their relatively strong economic position. Commodity prices are due to fall, and the GDP growth rate is also predicted to drop by at least 3.5%, to the lowest rate since 2000. A sharp decline in the Indonesian stock exchange has been reported and the rupiah has depreciated by 29% against the US dollar by the end of 2008. By the end of January 2009, exports had dropped by 36%, as had rates of private consumption. Employment rates are also due to drop, with lay-offs and changes from full to part time employment already reported – this will especially impact young people. In addition, the remittances sent from abroad, which are an important income source for many Indonesians, have the potential to drop sharply. Public expenditures may also be redirected from long term social investment to short term economic stimulus packages impacting spending on health, education and other social programmes.

However, Indonesia has entered into the crisis in a favorable position. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate hit a 10 year high in 2007, and the level of growth for 2008 was similar to the previous year. The impact of the crisis on Indonesia has therefore been less than in other countries. Accelerated growth over the past three years has been reflected in the falling poverty rate (from 16.6% in 2007 to 15.4% in 2008). Both urban and rural poverty rates fell, and rates show that the percentage of those living in poverty could have dropped further, had the rise in food prices (16% from 2007-2008) not risen so sharply. Employment records also indicate that open employment had been falling, while the share of the labour force in non-farm employment and formal employment had been on the increase. Strong investment, growing foreign reserves, improved tax collection and relatively low budget deficits have also meant that Indonesia has been well placed to deal with the economic crisis.

Crisis Monitoring and Response System

The Government of Indonesia is well prepared with an array of instruments to protect the poor and vulnerable from the crisis, but requires reliable and real time data in order to target these programmes in the most effective manner. The government will establish a National Crisis Monitoring and Response System to track the impact of the crisis and other shocks on poor and vulnerable groups, in order to develop a response scheme that will protect citizens from immediate risks, as well as extend beyond the current crisis.

The Government of Indonesia has approached the UN for support, specifically in the area of technical advice for crisis sensitive and real-time indicators which can be used to measure the impact of the crisis on employment, poverty-levels, informal sector activities, nutrition, urban-rural migration and so on. UNDP is committed to assisting the Government of Indonesia in setting up the National Crisis Monitoring and Response System and, assisted by UNDP Regional Centre in Bangkok, has already provided technical training to government staff on utilizing DesInventar, a software system for poverty monitoring. This system will be interfaced for use in the System.

Deberes y responsabilidades

This Terms of Reference for a Senior Consultant (Economic Crisis Monitoring) has been prepared to support the Government of Indonesia’s Crisis Monitoring and Response System. The work completed by the Senior Consultant will lay important foundations in the establishment and implementation of the Government’s Crisis Monitoring and Response System.

Scope of work Expected Results/Deliverables/Final Products Expected

The National Crisis Monitoring and Response System has the ultimate objective of providing the Government of Indonesia with the information required to create policies and programmes that will mitigate the effects of the global economic crisis on poor and vulnerable groups. The Senior Consultant will achieve the following:

1. Preparation of an analytical report that presents concrete ideas concerning informative, reliable and feasible methodologies and approaches for monitoring of vulnerabilities during the crisis building on the consultative process in the Crisis Monitoring Task Force and broader network of participants.

2. Development of framework for the crisis monitoring data collection that outlines the various methodologies, indicators, frequency of collection, sources and implementing partners. This framework will be developed in close collaboration with the Crisis Monitoring Task Force.

3. A high quality Crisis Monitoring and Response System Project Document formulated together with Poverty Reduction Unit in UNDP for approval by the Government.

4. Proposing a framework for assessment of the of the Government’s existing poverty reduction, safety net and Conditional Cash Transfer programmes in relation to their suitability as response mechanisms for the current economic crisis, drawing also on relevant on-going and future studies and research..

Specifically, through the key outputs, the Senior Consultant will provide substantive inputs and advice to Government and will contribute to the Task Force work on monitoring the impact of the economic crisis on poverty and human development. The Senior Consultant will be expected to produce high quality, evidence-based materials that stimulate dialogue with the
view to ensure effective monitoring and facilitate policy responses to the economic crisis. The Senior Consultant will draw on the most up-to-date analyses, studies and assessments of the crisis impact on human development in the country, region and globally and rely on networking with leading think tanks of development practitioners in-country and externally in completing all deliverables.

While located and operating primarily with the Government, the Senior Advisor will provide periodic updates and share insights/proposals with UNDP (and wider UN system) regarding the prospective roles that UNDP/UN can play in providing continuous effective support to the response to the economic crisis.

Roles and Responsibilities

The Senior Consultant is solely acting as contractor for this assignment. The Senior Consultant shall not advertise or in any manner whatsoever use the name, emblem or official seal of UNDP in connection with its business or otherwise.

The Senior Consultant may not communicate at any time to any other person, Government or authority external to this, any information known to it by reason of its association with the assignment which has not been made public except without the authorization of UNDP; nor shall the Senior Consultant at any time use such information to private advantage. These obligations do not lapse upon termination of this Contract.

All the outputs produced including technical background research paper, reports etc., will become UNDP products. UNDP will be entitled to all the intellectual property and other proprietary rights including but not limited to patents, copyrights, and trademarks, with regard to products, or documents and other materials which bear a direct relation to or are produced or prepared or collected in consequence of or in the course of the execution of this assignment.

To ensure proper coordination, the Senior Consultant should inform UNDP in advance about any major consultations that will be undertaken as part of the work for the Crisis Monitoring and Response System. It is expected that these consultations with stakeholders will be led by UNDP.

Management and Reporting

The Programme Manager, Poverty Reduction Unit in UNDP has been designated as a focal point for this assignment. All correspondence regarding work-plan, updates, drafts, and proposed consultations should be addressed to him.

Competencias

• Advisory, analytical and research skills of the highest order.
• Technical expertise and in-depth understanding of qualitative and quantitative methodologies and indicators for poverty monitoring.
• Ability to work with a wide group of stakeholders, including government, bilateral agencies, academia, civil society, etc.
• Ability to work with large datasets and knowledge of data/statistical software.
• Good interpersonal skills, solid judgment/decision making, initiative and creativity.
• Cultural and gender sensitivity.
• Familiarity with mandate of the UN.
• Excellent presentation and written skills.
• An understanding of the development situation in Indonesia, as well as the current impacts of the economic crisis on the poor and vulnerable groups is an advantage.
  

Habilidades y experiencia requeridas

• Advanced degree in economics, development economics/studies, politics, sociology or other social science fields relevant to the assignment.
• A minimum 5 years experience in senior advisory role in the fields of human development and poverty reduction; expertise also in governance would be an asset.
• Demonstrated experience working with/ or developing poverty monitoring systems and/or early warning systems to track vulnerabilities.
• Demonstrated experience working with the Government of Indonesia, or governments in the South East Asian region is desirable.
• English language skills, written and spoken, of the highest order.
• Bahasa Indonesia is an advantage.
• Available immediately.