Background

Due to the diverse and complex terrain of the Caucasus mountains, its significant influence and the influence of the Black Sea and Caspian Sea on the climate and weather of the region, Georgia is exposed to various climate-induced hazards including floods and flash floods, climate-induced geological hazards (including landslides, mudflow, debris flows), droughts, soil erosion, severe winds, hailstorms and avalanches. Furthermore, according to Georgia’s the 2nd and the 3rd National Communications, the frequency, intensity and geographical spread of extreme hydro meteorological hazards will increase under climate change and may result in significant impacts on key sectors including agriculture, critical infrastructure (transportation networks, buildings, roads, water supply, energy installations), natural resources and eco-systems, glaciers and forests.

To address the existing development challenges, UNDP Georgia is implementing a program aimed at reducing exposure of Georgia’s communities, livelihoods and infrastructure to climate-induced natural hazards through a well-functioning nation-wide multi-hazard early warning system and risk-informed local action. It will provide critical climate risk information that would enable the Government of Georgia to implement a number of nation-wide transformative policies and actions for reducing exposure and vulnerability of the population to climate-induced hazards, thus catalysing a paradigm shift in the national climate risk management, climate-proofed disaster risk reduction and early warning approaches.

The program encompasses three interrelated projects funded by Green Climate Fund (GCF), Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) and Swedish International Development Cooperation(SIDA).

The GCF funded project interventions target expanding the hydro-meteorological and agrometeorological observation network, introducing methods and tools for gender sensitive vulnerability assessment, supporting establishment of a centralized multi-hazard disaster risk information and knowledge system, enhancing multi-hazard forecasting and modelling capacities and improving community resilience through implementation of early warning system (EWS) & risk reduction measures.

The project funded by SDC aims at reducing exposure and vulnerability of communities in Georgia, through development of multi-hazard risk information by introducing standardized and harmonized national multi-hazard mapping and risk assessment methodologies, effective national regulations, coordination mechanism and institutional capacities. 

The SIDA funded project intends to reduce exposure of Georgia’s communities, livelihoods and infrastructure to climate-induced natural hazards through supporting implementation of structural measures in the affected areas.

Geographical coverage of the program is nation-wide, covering all 11 major river basins in Georgia: Enguri, Rioni, Chorokhi-Adjaristskali, Supsa, Natanebi, Khobi, Kintrishi, Khrami-Ktsia, Alazani, Iori, Mtkvari (same as Kura) focusing on the following hazards: floods, landslides, mudflows, avalanches, hailstorms, windstorms and droughts.

At present existing capacities of national institutions do not enable forecasting of hazards with high precision and accuracy, nor is the regulatory and institutional setup appropriate to support a well-designed multi-hazard early warning system. Among others, introduction of modelling capacities is integral part of addressing those issues.

The program seeks to provide support to national institutions in building capacities for multi-hazard and risk modelling and mapping, operationalization of multi-hazard early warning system and community-based resilience building.

Duties and Responsibilities

The overall  responsibility of the international expert is to lead the process of improvement of hazard forecasting capabilities of integration of the new sources of data into the hazard forecasting systems. The international expert is expected to support enhancement  of the capacities of the National Environmental Agency (NEA) in assessment of quality of satellite products to ensure bias correction and full deployment of those data sources into the hazard forecasting platform as well as acquisition, processing, analysis and use of weather radar data. Additionally, the expert will be responsible to undertake a thorough assessment of the capacity needs of NEA in weather forecasting.

The expert will work under overall guidance of Project Chief Technical Advisor and in cooperation with International Expert on Forecasting Systems. 

Duties and Responsibilities:

For the entire period of the assignment the international expert will be responsible for:

• Review of the report on Technical and Human Capacity Needs of NEA in the Usage of Radar and Satellite Data and Capacity development plan.

In order to review already developed report the expert should undertake a capacity assessment of radar and satellite data obtaining and processing skills; Satellite and radar data, acquisition, analyses and processing for NWP, forecasting and early warning procedures. The expert should analyze developed scorecard by assessing the capacities for these topics and incorporate his/her findings into the report on training recommendations and plan to address any gap(s) that may have been found during this analysis.

• Assisting NEA in an analysis of satellite data available at NEA and any other external data sources e.g. MPE from EumetSAT, GPM, JAXA, SADIS, PERSIANN and CHIRPS

The data to be used in the analysis should always be, in all cases, the earliest (near real-time) data (shortest latency time). The expert should undertake the analysis for events in the past and check its adequacy for hindcast mode predictions (always using shortest latency). The satellite data are to be used primarily for hazard forecasting purposes, including floods/flash-floods, mudflows, landslides. The expert should ensure development and implementation of procedures for the availability of those data for the forecasting platform, including scripts for downloading, processing and extracting the data for forecasting purposes. In case that there is need to assess these products for drought forecasting, the latency criteria can be altered if needed.

• Supporting NEA in weather radar data analysis and processing.

The radar data will come from different sources and different manufacturers. The consultant will support the validation of radar data for precipitation, wind and hail products. The radar data will be compared to any available data, mainly from available weather stations. The validation will be undertaken for significant events when data from both sources (monitoring network and radar) are available. The consultant should provide a detailed report regarding the quality of the radar data against the weather stations and also detailed recommendations regarding the suggested approach for the exploitation of the weather radar data for forecasting purposes. All the scripts for data acquisition and processing should be provided. NEA weather forecasters have initiated this task and there are resources available. The expert should assess the validity of the current approach.

• Supporting NEA in the introduction of weather radar data in the hazard forecasting systems

The expert will explore inclusion of weather radar data in hazard forecasting, highlighting its use in flood/flash-floods, mudflows, landslides, wind and hail. The hail forecasting EWS will be mainly based on the use of the weather radar, and the expert should develop procedures to ensure implementation.

Deliverables:

1. Reviewed Report on capacity needs assessment that should include developed and filled in technical capacity assessment scorecard, capacity development plan and recommendations.
2. Report regarding the results of assessment of the quality of the weather radar data against the weather stations and also detailed recommendations on the suggested approach for the exploitation of the weather radar data for forecasting purposes. All the scripts for data acquisition and processing should be provided.
3. Report on the support in the introduction of weather radar data in the hazard forecasting systems with recommendations regarding how those data can be used, developed scripts and procedures needed for this.
4. Report on the accuracy analysis of satellite precipitation estimates to be used primarily for hazard forecasting purposes. The report should detail on the analysis of the following products: MPE from EumetSAT, GPM, JAXA, PERSIANN, CHIRPS for the selected past events and its adequacy checked for hindcast mode predictions (always using shortest latency). The report should also describe procedures for data availability for the forecasting platform, including scripts for downloading, processing and extracting the data for forecasting purposes.

Competencies

Corporate competencies:

• Demonstrates integrity by modelling the UN’s values and ethical standards;
• Understanding of the mandate and the role of UNDP would be an asset;
• Promotes the vision, mission and strategic goals of UNDP;
• Displays cultural, gender, religion, race, nationality and age sensitivity and adaptability;
• Treats all people fairly without favouritism

Functional competencies:

• Strong communication and analytical skills;
• Demonstrated skills in drafting reports;
• Ability to work under pressure with several tasks and various deadlines;
• Actively generates creative, practical approaches and solutions to overcome challenging situations;
• Excellent writing, presentation/public speaking skills;
• A pro-active approach to problem-solving;
• Computer literacy;

Leadership and Self-Management skills:

• Builds strong relationships with the working group and with the project partners; focuses on impact and results for the project partners and responds positively to feedback;
• Cooperates with working group effectively and demonstrates strong conflict resolution skills;
• Consistently approaches work with energy, positivity and a constructive attitude;
• Demonstrates strong influencing and facilitation skills;
• Remains calm, in control and good humoured under pressure;
• Demonstrates openness to change, new ideas and ability to manage ambiguity;
• Demonstrates strong oral and written communication skills;
• Demonstrates ability to transfer knowledge and competencies;
• Ability to work independently and hurdle competing priorities.

Required Skills and Experience

Education

• At least Master’s degree in meteorology, hydrology or any related field, (minimum requirement); 

Experience

• At least 5 years’ experience in operational weather/hydrological forecasting including acquisition, processing and analysis of weather radar data and utilization for hazard forecasting (minimum requirement);
• At least 5 years experience in analysis of satellite precipitation estimates and in using the data for hazard forecasting purposes (minimum requirement);   
• Familiarity and/or experience on Multi -hazard Early Warning Systems (MHEWS) is an asset;

Language Requirements

• Proficiency in both spoken and written English.

EVALUATION

Offerors will be evaluated based on the cumulative analysis method, against combination of technical and financial criteria. Maximum total obtainable score is 100, out of which the total score for technical criteria (desk review and interview) equals to 70 and for financial criteria – to 30. 

Offerors that do not meet any of the Minimum Requirements will be automatically rejected, while the rest will form the long list.

Technical evaluation will comprise of desk review and interview stages. Offerors who pass the 70% threshold, is obtain minimum 35 points as a result of the desk review will be invited to the interview.

More specifically, following criteria will be used for evaluating the offerors:

Offerors passing 70% threshold as a result of the interview (i.e. obtain minimum of 14 points) will be recommended for financial evaluation. 

FINANCIAL PROPOSAL

* Lump sum contracts

The financial proposal shall specify a total lump sum amount, and payment terms around specific and measurable (qualitative and quantitative) deliverables (i.e. whether payments fall in instalments or upon completion of the entire contract). Payments are based upon output, i.e. upon delivery of the services specified in the ToR.  In order to assist the requesting unit in the comparison of financial proposals, the financial proposal will include a breakdown of this lump sum amount.

Maximum 30 points will be assigned to the lowest price offer. All other price offers will be scored using the formula (inverse proportion):  Financial score X = 30* the lowest price offer/suggested price offer. All envisaged travel costs must be included in the financial proposal as well.