Antecedentes

UNDP recently published a Central Asia (Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) human development paper on trade and human development, building on its 2005 Central Asia Human Development Report (via use of a more flexible modular, thematic format). The next in this series of Central Asian human development papers is devoted to migration, remittances, and human development.

The lack of decent employment opportunities has been a key development challenge in Central Asia—especially for its low- and lower middle-income countries. While the impact of the global and European financial crises on the region has been relatively mild, economic growth in Central Asia is often based on the export of natural resources (energy, metals) or a few large enterprises (e.g., TALCO in Tajikistan, or Kumtor in the Kyrgyz Republic). Together with demographic trends (large numbers of young people entering the workforce each year) and governance/institutional capacity issues, these structural characteristics depress employment growth in the region, relative to labour market participants’ aspirations.

Significant external labour migration has emerged as a response to this growth pattern, particularly in Central Asia’s low- and lower-middle income countries. (While internal (rural-to-urban) migration flows are also significant in the region, these will not be a major focus of this paper) This is apparent inter alia in the large size and rapid growth in remittance inflows, and their importance as development drivers. For example:

• As ratios vis-a-vis GDP, remittance inflows in 2013 are estimated at 47% in Tajikistan and 32% in the Kyrgyz Republic—ranking these two countries first and second in the world in terms of this ratio;
• Remittance inflows provide critical support to the external balance of Central Asia’s low-income countries;
• According to official data, remittance inflows in Tajikistan during 2011-2012 were more than twice as large as merchandise exports, fully financing Tajikistan’s merchandise trade deficit. For the Kyrgyz Republic, remittances have financed between half and three quarters of the merchandise trade deficit during most of the past decade;
• The available evidence indicates that remittance inflows in Central Asia’s low-income countries play a significant role in reducing poverty—particularly in the Kyrgyz Republic, reducing the 2012 poverty headcount from 45% to 38% (using the national poverty line).

Estimates of the precise magnitudes of these inflows face formidable methodological and measurement difficulties. Still, it seems clear that remittances in Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic have acquired very large dimensions and continue to grow (in absolute terms). These trends may pose questions to the conventional wisdom about the role and sustainability of migration and remittances as drivers of development and poverty reduction. Generally speaking, such views posit that slowing population growth (especially among younger age cohorts), converging income levels between source and destination countries, and the transformation of circular migrants into permanent residents in destination countries eventually weaken migration drivers and the remittances they generate. While such arguments may hold in the long term, the experience of the past decade suggests that, as a guide to the short- and medium-term development context in Central Asia’s low-income countries, they could leave quite a bit to be desired. These issues may also be becoming increasingly relevant for Uzbekistan—Central Asia’s sole lower middle-income country. Central Bank of Russia data indicate that Uzbekistan is the largest recipient (receiving nearly one third) of the wire transfers sent from Russia to other CIS countries (in value terms).

On the other hand, the large scale of these flows may be matched by their associated human costs—in both source and destination countries; and for the migrants themselves, for the communities that receive them, and for those left behind. This may in particular be the case for Central Asia’s low-income countries, where rural communities and families are increasingly losing their young men, where children grow up without fathers, where Soviet-era progress towards gender equality is under threat, and where returning migrants can spread HIV, TB, and other infectious diseases contracted in epidemiological hotspots. Likewise, migration may not be an unmixed blessing for the Russian Federation (the source of 80-90% of the remittances received by Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic), where migrant workers from Central Asia (and other CIS countries) can be sources of social tensions.

Questions about Central Asia’s low-income countries’ prospects for transforming the export of migrant labour to into the export of labour-intensive goods and services—particularly to the Russian Federation, but also to Kazakhstan (especially for the Kyrgyz Republic)—likewise loom large. These issues are closely associated with the future of the Eurasian integration project, which is now occurring within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Community’s Customs Union, and which is to be transformed into the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) in 2015. (The Customs Union consists of the Russian Federation, Kazakhstan, and Belarus. The Kyrgyz Republic is currently negotiating to join) Should the creation and expansion of the EEU—which is to feature the free movement of labour (as well as of goods, services, and capital)—also promote the expansion of labour-intensive sectors like textiles, food processing, and tourism in Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic (due to growing exports to EEU countries), and help formalize migration flows to the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan, the resulting benefits could more than offset losses resulting from higher tariff and non-tariff barriers to imports from non-EEU suppliers.

These large migration and remittances flows show that labour markets in Central Asia’s low-income countries are already deeply integrated with the Russian labour market. This integration has occurred irrespective of the formal status of the Kyrgyz Republic’s and Tajikistan’s aspirations for membership in the Customs Union and the EEU. On the other hand, the quasi-informal nature of these flows reduces their beneficial development impact, particularly in terms of supporting pension funds and other forms of social and employment protection in source and destination countries. Formalizing these migration flows could yield important labour market and social protection benefits in both Central Asia and the Russian Federation. (These questions are explored inter alia by Centre for Integration Studies, Eurasian Development Bank, Saint Petersburg, 2012.)

But despite the importance of issues, governments in Central Asia have yet to fully come to terms with their development (and especially human development) implications. In countries where national migration strategies have been designed, their implementation has often lagged. Likewise, efforts to support social protection systems in Central Asia by facilitating contributions from migrants working in the Russian Federation are only now starting. Moreover, except for the IOM, the international community has been slow to come to terms with the development programming ramifications of these large migration and remittance flows in Central Asia. On the other hand, some good practices have emerged, inter alia in the form of local development projects that hold job fairs for migrants and attract savings from migrant households for reinvestment into community development via microfinance operations and other locally controlled inclusive financial institutions. Projects designed and implemented by UNDP, IOM, IFAD, OSCE, and other international partners have generated some important initial lessons learned and good practices that could be replicated and scaled up.

The paper will analyse migration and remittance flows in Central Asia from a human development perspective, with special emphasis on their employment, gender, social protection, inclusive finance, local development, economic diversification, and Eurasian integration dimensions. It will:

• Be data driven;
• Build on the existing research already developed by inter alia the Eurasian Development Bank’s Centre for Integration Studies and International Organization for Migration;
• Combine analysis of existing data on migration and remittances with the development and analysis of new primary data (e.g., via crowd-sourcing, micro-narratives, etc.), where appropriate; and
• Identity key programming issues, lessons learned, good practices, for project design and implementation in these areas.

Deberes y responsabilidades

The expert to be engaged under this consultancy will, based on data from national and international sources, as well as a review of existing literature and policy documents:

Describe (or estimate) the size of/trends in migration and remittance flows:

For/from both countries of migration destination (primarily the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan, plus others, as needed) and origin countries:

• With a particular focus on Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and, to the extent possible, Uzbekistan;
  Reflecting, to the extent possible, data about migration and remittances flows to and from third countries, especially China;
• Differentiating (to the extent possible) between labour migration, versus migration for study, family reunification, political asylum, or other purposes;
• Differentiating—to the extent possible, using balance-of-payments data (and other data, when such is feasible)—between unrequited private transfers, labour compensation, and other payments flows that may be misleadingly classified as remittances (e.g., import of working capital, export of tourism services);
• Comparing trends in remittance inflows to receiving countries with inflows of ODA, FDI, and other capital flows, as well as receipts from the exports of goods and services;
• Recognizing methodological and measurement limitations on estimates of migration and remittance flows, and providing ranges/bands of these estimates, to reflect these ambiguities; and
• Where possible, identifying data sources (administrative, “Big Data”) which potentially could provide additional information on migration and remittances (for instance, bank data on individual transfers, mobile companies, border police data, etc.), as well as assessing the accessibility of these data sources.
  

Compare these migration and remittance trends to other countries from other regions, with a particular focus on:

• Explanations for why remittance inflows to Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic are so high; and
• Short- , medium- , and long-term forecasts/projections/scenarios concerning their possible evolution;

Provide evidence-based assessments of the impact of migration flows on the labour markets of source and destination countries, vis-à-vis official data (or estimated therein) of:

• Labour force;
• Employment;
• Unemployment;
• Poverty and inequality.

Where possible, disaggregating these assessments (for both source and destination countries) by:

• Gender;
• Sub-national regions;
• Ethnicity;
• Other potential vulnerability criteria.

Provide assessments of the extent to which labour migration from Central Asian countries produces other:

Negative socio-economic consequences, inter alia in the form of:

• “Brain drain” (in the form of “lost” skilled labour);
• Critical strains on family and social cohesion;
• Spread of communicable diseases.

Positive consequences, inter alia in the form of circular migration, via which returning workers acquire:

• New skills (“brain gain”);
• Working capital;
• Exposure to new ways of working, living, development opportunities, role models (“social remittances”).
  

Provide an overview and analysis of key policy directions concerning migration and remittances, in the following countries/regional organizations:

• Russian Federation;
• Kazakhstan;
• Tajikistan;
• Kyrgyz Republic;
• Uzbekistan;
• Commonwealth of Independent States;
• Eurasian Economic Commission.

Deliverables and timeline

The consultancy will present the above in the form of a 40-50 page single-spaced, English- or Russian-language narrative, including data, exposition, and source materials/works cited, by the following timeline:

• 1 August 2014—a full first draft of the report (35% of the lump sum paid upon delivery and UNDP acceptance of the full first draft);
• 1 October 2014—a complete final draft of the report, in good quality English or Russian (50% of the lump sum paid upon delivery and UNDP acceptance);
• 31 October 2014—review of overall analytical, which includes parts from final draft of the report, provided by consultant (15% of the lump sum paid upon finalization of review and UNDP acceptance).

Management arrangements

The consultant(s)/consultancy engaged for this assignment will:

• report to Human Development Officer; and Team leader, UNDP regional poverty reduction practice for Europe and Central Asia; and
• work closely with the UNDP offices in the Central Asian countries and Russia most directly covered by this study.

Competencias

Corporate competencies:

• Demonstrate integrity by modelling the UN’s values and ethical standards;
• Promote the vision, mission, and strategic goals of UNDP;
• Display cultural, gender, religion, race, nationality and age sensitivity and adaptability;
• Treat all people fairly without favouritism; and
• Fulfil all obligations to gender sensitivity and zero tolerance for sexual harassment.

Functional competencies:

• Have strong interpersonal, communications, and diplomatic skills;
• Be able to work in a team;
• Be open to change and able to receive/integrate feedback;
• Be able to work under pressure and stressful situations; and
• Have strong analytical, reporting, and writing abilities.

Habilidades y experiencia requeridas

Education/Academic Background:

• An advanced university degree (preferably in economics, sociology, international law, or development studies).

Experience:

• A proven research record on international migration, remittances and development issues;
• Extensive experience (at least 5 years) working in the former Soviet Union, ideally in Central Asia, in the above mentioned areas;
• Familiarity with the human development paradigm;
• A proven ability to deliver quality research in a timely fashion at a reasonable price.

Languages:

• Excellent English or Russian: spoken and written communications skills (ideally both).

Evaluation of Applicants

Individual consultants will be evaluated based on a cumulative analysis taking into consideration the combination of the applicants’ technical qualifications and financial proposal. The award of the contract should be made to the individual consultant whose offer has been evaluated and assessed as:

• Responsive, compliant, and acceptable; and
• Having received the highest score out of a pre-determined set of weighted technical and financial criteria specific to the solicitation.

Only the highest ranked candidates who are found to be technically qualified for the job will be considered for the financial evaluation.

Technical criteria (70% of the total evaluation, maximum—35 points):

• Research record on international migration, remittances, and development issues—particularly concerning data on labour migration and remittances, and their socio-economic implications (maximum—10 points);
• Experience working on transition economies in general and Central Asia in particular (maximum—10 points);
• A demonstrated ability to deliver high-quality, well-written research (written sample to be provided with application), in English or Russian (ideally, both), in a timely fashion (maximum—10 points);
• Familiarity with the human development paradigm, particularly as concerns, poverty, gender, and other vulnerability criteria (maximum—5 points).

Financial criteria: these will be 30% of the total evaluation (maximum—15 points).

Application procedures

Qualified candidates are requested to apply online via this website. The application should contain:

• A cover letter, describing:  The applicant’s qualifications, previous experience, background, relevant expertise, and comparative advantages in performing this work; and A brief methodological overview that would guide how the work would be performed and managed. (Applicants are kindly requested to paste the letter into the “resume and motivation” section of the electronic application);
• A completed P11 form that describes past experience on similar projects and contains contact details of referees. This form can be downloaded from http://europeandcis.undp.org/files/hrforms/P11_modified_for_SCs_and_ICs.doc; applicants are requested to upload the P11 form instead of their CV.
  
• A recent writing sample of the applicant’s relevant research (up to 5 pages A4, in Russian or English language), not edited by others to be sent to hru.sk@undp.org;
• A financial proposal:* specifying a) the total lump sum amount for the work to be done (as specified above); and b) breaking this lump sum down into number of anticipated working days and any other possible costs;
• Incomplete applications will not be considered. Please make sure you have provided all requested materials.

* The financial proposal should be all-inclusive, taking into account various expenses incurred by the consultant during the contract period (e.g., fee, health insurance, and any other relevant expenses related to the performance of the services).

General Terms and conditions as well as other related documents can be found under: http://on.undp.org/t7fJs

Qualified women and members of minorities are encouraged to apply.
Incomplete applications will not be considered.

Due to large numbers of applications, UNDP is only able to inform successful candidates about the outcome or status of the selection process.