UNDP Jobs - 71140- International Foresight and Scenarios Methodology

International Foresight and Scenarios Methodology Expert (ISBE)

Location :

Maseru, LESOTHO

Type of Contract :

Individual Contract

Starting Date :

30-Mar-2017

Application Deadline :

16-Mar-17 (Midnight New York, USA)

Post Level :

International Consultant

Duration of Initial Contract :

45 days spread between March and September 2017

Languages Required :

English

Expected Duration of Assignment :

45 days

UNDP is committed to achieving workforce diversity in terms of gender, nationality and culture. Individuals from minority groups, indigenous groups and persons with disabilities are equally encouraged to apply. All applications will be treated with the strictest confidence. UNDP does not tolerate sexual exploitation and abuse, any kind of harassment, including sexual harassment, and discrimination. All selected candidates will, therefore, undergo rigorous reference and background checks.

Background

Lesotho is a small land-locked country of about 2 million ethnically/racially and culturally homogeneous people fully surrounded by South Africa on which it is heavily dependent for goods, revenues and services. The country marked its 50th independence anniversary in October 2016 amidst heightened anxiety about its political and economic stability. The last two elections (2012 and 2015) failed to produce an outright winner and, instead, led to an emerging trend of coalition governments which, unfortunately, have proved to be unstable.

While Lesotho’s political dynamics could be viewed in some way as normal and even a positive expression of democracy, the resulting uncertainty has continued to affect the socio-economic fortunes in a country that is heavily reliant on South Africa for most goods and services. The pre-occupation with politics result in a distracted administration; and slow decision-making, count among other challenges. In short, there is lack of long-term strategic thinking and planning. In the recent past, the socio-economic situation has further been negatively impacted by declining Southern African Customs Union (SACU) revenue; deteriorating health delivery systems; stagnating education system, declining food production and heightened vulnerability.

Socially, Lesotho lags behind on a number of regional and international benchmarks. Particular concerns centre around female and youth populations in relation to opportunities in an adult male-dominated society. While the Gender-related Development Index (GDI) ranks Lesotho 43 out of 187 countries with a female to male ratio of HDI at 0.973, thus suggesting low gender disparities, the reality is different (Lesotho NHDR 2015). For example, Article 12 of the SADC Protocol on Gender and Development (2008) stipulates that States Parties shall endeavour to ensure at least 50% of decision-making positions in the public and private sectors are held by women by 2015. On the contrary, there were reversals following the 2015 elections, with women representation in the National Assembly going down from 26% to 25%, and from 27% to 24% in the Senate. This is below the minimum target of 30% women representation, Provisions for gender equity and equality would be key in a new constitution.

Lesotho is young demographically, and nearly 40 percent of the people in Lesotho are aged between 15 and 35 years and constitute a youth bulge. The 2015 NHDR characterises youth in Lesotho as follows: Globally, Lesotho is ranked 115 out of 170 countries with regard to the Youth Development Index (0.53). Youth development outcomes have advanced in terms of education (0.688), employment (0.683) and political participation (0.583), but remain very low in relation to civic participation (0.336) and health (0.224). Lesotho is the worst performer on youth health in the Commonwealth.

Collectively, Lesotho’s development challenges suggest the need for strategic long-term thinking and action, with the participation of multiple stakeholders, in ways that could spur a national dialogue on the country and future that Basotho desire. Commendably, the Government of Lesotho has committed to and launched the Lesotho Reforms Programme which is intended to address constitutional, sector and institutional bottlenecks to stability and development. This complements several other reforms to improve the investment and business climate in Lesotho and the justice sector reforms.

1.Project Description

The Lesotho Foresight and Scenarios Project (LFSP) is a collaborative undertaking between UNDP, the Ministry of Development Planning (MoDP) and the National University of Lesotho (NUL). It is intended to spur thoughtful dialogue on Lesotho’s development pathways into the future. It is designed to contribute to the efforts of the Lesotho United Nations Country Team (UNCT) to support national development and the entrenchment of capacities within national institutions, such as the NUL. It is also intended to feed into the development of a new National Strategic Development Plan (NSDP 2018-2022) spearheaded by the MoDP. Specifically, LFSP will provide a platform and process through which national stakeholders will have a non-partisan space to explore pathways to a stable, peaceful and prosperous future. Stakeholders including political, private sector, youth, CSO, academic and religious leaders will engage with the question, “ What do we want Lesotho to look like in 2030 and what decisions might we need to make today to have the future we prefer?”.[1] The project will build on, expand and deepen the discussions and momentum generated at the Workshop on Foresight for the SDGs held in Lesotho in September 2016 which was organized by UNDP and the MoDP and facilitated by the Global Centre for Public Service Excellence (GCPSE).

With the technical support of UNDP and working with the NUL and MoDP as implementing partners, the LFSP will be implemented in three phases over a period of approximately 8 months.

Phase 1: Inception and research phase- A G-STEEP Analysis (Gendered Social, Technological, Environmental, Economic and Political) will be undertaken and reports written of key trends, systemic factors and actors and drivers of change.[2]

Phase 2: Scenario development phase -Lesotho future scenarios developed in a multi-stakeholder process.

Phase 3: Dissemination phase- Project products compiled into a compendium and a simplified popular version of the scenarios printed in English and Sesotho and disseminated.

In terms of approach, the LFSP seeks to combine the traditional approach to scenario-analysis as a collaborative process involving stakeholders, with practical international experience and in-depth and systematic research and analysis as a basis for scenario development.

On behalf of the UNCT, UNDP Lesotho is seeking an expert in foresight and scenario process and methodology to support the technical, methodological, and process aspects of the LFSP. The assignment will include on-site and off-site responsibilities and entail at least three visits to Lesotho.

Duties and Responsibilities

Under the supervision of the Lesotho UN Peace and Development Advisor (PDA) and working with the LFSP Technical Working Group made up of representatives of UNDP, MoDP and NUL, the International Foresight and Scenarios Methodology Expert will support the implementation of the LFSP in phases 1 and 2 for a total of 35 working days spread over approximately eight months:

Phase One (March to June 2017; Total working days =25

Developing and delivering a “Foresight and Scenarios Methodology Workshop” as part of the LFSP’s Inception and Methodology Workshop (10 Days)[1]
In consultation with the Lesotho UN Peace and Development Advisor (PDA) and LFSP team inclusive of the NUL and MoDP, develop the content and process of the 2½ - 3-day inception and methodology workshop (off-site);
During the inception and methodology workshop, make presentations on the concepts of foresight and scenario analysis and the relevance to Lesotho; and methodological and process options (on-site);
Guide the participants in bounding/delimiting areas of in-depth analysis for the research phase and in the development of guidelines for authors of analytical papers (on-site).
Guide authors in the development of research papers (Off-site and on-site, 15 days).
Guide authors in the development of scenarios research papers including in distinguishing between academic and scenario research;
Distill key factors and drivers to inform the scenarios formulation process
Facilitate a two-day authors’ and peer-review workshop (on-site)
In consultation with the PDA and the Project’s Technical Working Group, develop the process and content for the scenarios development workshop.

Phase Two (May-June 2017; Total Working days =10

Based on the analysis and research carried out in Phase 1 and discussions at the Inception Workshop, design a workshop on Lesotho Scenarios (off-site);
Facilitate a workshop and guide the participants in the development of scenarios and respective narratives (on-site),
Support the refinement of the scenario narratives/summations as necessary (on and off-site).

[1] The distribution of the 25 days is for guidance only. The expert may decide on how best to distribute the days in order to meet the objectives.

Competencies

Corporate Competencies:

Demonstrates integrity by modeling the UN’s values and ethical standards;
Promotes the vision, mission, and strategic goals of the project.
Displays cultural, gender, religion, race, nationality and age sensitivity and adaptability;
Treats all people fairly and without favoritism.

Functional Competencies:

Demonstrates strong intellectual and operational capacity in providing and coordinating advisory services to stakeholders
Significant experience in providing practical advice to policy makers;
Ability to work well with senior counterparts in government, academia, civil society, private sector and development partners;
Strong group facilitation, communication and interpersonal skills;
Excellent organizational skills, self-management and ability to work effectively in a team.

Required Skills and Experience

Education:

Masters or higher degree in any of the social sciences or other relevant field.

Experience

Minimum 10 years specialized experience in international context,
Knowledge of foresight and scenario building methodology.
Practical experience facilitating foresight and scenario building processes at a senior level.
Practical experience working on scenarios research
Strong knowledge of cross-cutting developmental issues and themes and their interlinkages;
Strong knowledge of political and development processes in Africa is desirable.

Langage:

Fluent in English.

Procedure:

Submit P11, Confirmation of Interest and Availability, and Methodology;
Detailed TORs and Templates can be viewed at:http://procurement-notices.undp.org/view_notice.cfm?notice_id=36245.