Background

Albania’s vocational education and training (VET) and vocational skills development (VSD) system all too often has failed to equip students with the req­uisite knowledge, competences and skills for a suc­cessful transition into the labour market. This has resulted in an unsuitably qualified labour force, skills shortages and soaring youth unemployment. Recognizing the need to systematically address em­ployment by re-orienting the vocational education and training and vocational skills development sys­tem towards labour market needs, and modernizing and extending outreach of employment services, the Albanian government adopted the National Employ­ment and Skills Strategy 2014-2020.

UNDP globally and regionally has built a strategic vision that recognizes the importance of creating employment opportunities as a means to addressing both poverty reduction and inequalities and exclusion. Indeed, the first outcome of the recently adopted United Nations Youth System Wide Action Plan focuses on Employment and Entrepreneurship with the intention to ensure greater opportunities for youth to secure decent work and income over the life-cycle, contributing to a virtuous circle of poverty reduction, sustainable development and social inclusion. To support the integration of various youth employment policy objectives through coordinated action, UNDP Albania, in collaboration with other UN agencies has designed and implemented several skills development / employment related interventions.

After six years of experience addressing labor supply interventions, UNDP Albania’s strategic vision is to contribute to building a labour-market focused skills development system that is suited to enhance the employment and entrepreneurship aspects of the unemployed in urban and rural areas, while simultaneously addressing the skills needs of those employed in the formal and informal sectors and emerging entrepreneurs.

The ambition of the Swiss funded Skills Development for Employment (SD4E) Programme is to make a systemic contribution to the modernization of Al­bania’s VET/VSD system by addressing several key challenges: skills mismatch and unequal access to employment and training services; labour market challenges in rural areas; insufficient governance of funding for employment and training; lack of coor­dination / collaboration in the system; inadequate labour market information; and insufficient quality and relevance of VET and VSD providers and their programmes. The overall goal of the programme is that “more young women and men in urban and rural areas in Albania are employed or self-employed.” In order to achieve this goal, the programme focuses on four outcomes:

Outcome 1:       Improving and diversifying employment promotion measures, and advancing their governance

Outcome 2:       Improved environment and regulatory framework for up-scaling work-based learning schemes (elements of dual system)

Outcome 3:       Quality assurance and accreditation of VET/VSD providers

Outcome 4:       Anticipating skills needs in the short and medium term

Duties and Responsibilities

Scope of the assignment

The urge to better understand the need for skills of the society and the economy remains crucial to the efficiency of economic and employment policies. The skills or occupation mismatch in the recent years has been among the factors causing unemployment, especially unemployment among young and high productive population causing delay in economic recovery. Skills mismatch in the labour market and the associated inefficiencies of Albania’s education model have thus emerged as a priority.

UNDP is seeking a national consultant who will be tasked with building a test quantitative skills forecasting model for Albania, focusing on the short to medium term (up to 5 years’ time horizon). Quantitative employment projections should be produced by sector and occupation. To allow for further extrapolation, the data should be broken down by level of education, age bands, gender. A combination of di?erent methods, both quantitative and qualitative, will consent to achieve reliable and meaningful results. A validation analysis, through a qualitative approach, will also be part of the scope. Priority is given to accuracy and reliability. In this sense, the model and its assumptions must be as transparent and simple as possible.

The assignment will be carried out over a 4-month long period, during which s/he will carry out the following activities:

1. Review literature on the topic (5 working days) – some indicative literature includes (but should not be limited to) the following:

• Forecasting report: “Labour market analysis and long – term forecast up to 2025”, May 2013 - under the Twinning project “Support to the National Employment Policy” K2007/IB/SO/02
• From University to Employment: Higher Education Provision and Labour Market Needs in the Western Balkans Synthesis Report, EC, 2016;
• Guide to Anticipating and Matching Skills and Jobs Volume 2, Developing Skills Foresights, Scenarios and Forecasts, CEDEFOP, ETF, ILO, 2016
• Vietnam Employment Trends 2010, National Centre for Labour Market Forecast and Information Bureau of Employment, Ministry of Labour, Invalids and Social Affairs, 2010.

2. Assess data availability, sources INSTAT: LFS, SNA; Eurostat; IFM; ILO; ECFIN; etc. (4 working days)

3. Preliminary development of a skills forecasting model (27 working days)

• Supply forecast: based on population projections, available on INSTAT. The consultant will evaluate how to combine the population projections with the current supply composition by educational level (low, medium, high), occupation and sector of employment, identified from the LFS data. The population projections, together with education future trends, are the components of the projected supply of labour. Development of education levels on populations can be possibly modelled by stock-flow based on pseudo-cohorts identified from individual LFS data (Bosworth, et al. (2012)).
• Employment projections: the consultant will evaluate the most appropriate technique to project the future employment by broad industry sector, considering the data availability and feasibility. Two different possible approaches include the input-output tables methodology (see Guide to Anticipating and Matching Skills and Jobs Volume 2, Developing Skills Foresights, Scenarios and Forecasts, Chapter 8.3 for all details), and projections of past trends based on predicted GDP growth. S/he will investigate whether it is advisable to generate the forecast internally or to refer instead to employment projections published by external sources (ILO, ECFIN). The assignment includes the creation of a conversion module, which can translate the employment projections by sector into occupations, using shares of employment by occupation within each industry. In a similar fashion, translation of overall employment can be translated into qualifications demanded. This process delivers a consistent set of employment estimates across all three dimensions (sector, occupation, qualification). The basis of the employment shares will be the Labour Force Survey data. The level of details of broad industry sector will be define by the consultant according to the data available. 
• Demand forecast: The demand methodology should be based on replacement and expansion demand. Expansion demand is the extra demand arising from economic growth. Expansion demands for both occupation and qualification are the net change in employment from these equations, calculated between any two years. Replacement demand is that arising from retirement, migration, outflow from occupation/qualification category.

The result of this activity will be an excel file with detailed data, showing:

• Forecasted Labour Supply by: educational level, occupation, age, gender
• Forecasted Employment by: occupation, sector, qualification
• Forecasted Labour Demand by: occupation, sector, qualification

4. Test the model (8 working days)

Test the robustness of the model, and review any possible inconsistency.

5. Validation of results (3 working days)

Present the preliminary results to a board of experts from universities or public institutions. Validation through a qualitative approach, in order to interpret and adjust the quantitative results. (It might be a workshop, focus group, or others, in collaboration with relevant stakeholders and experts). Other sources of validation (i.e., foresight scenarios based on employers’ surveys, data on vacancies collected from Public Employment Services) might be considered. The proposal should explain the method planned and the kind of experts that will be involved.

6. Report writing (8 working days)

The report should explain in details the methodology and the assumptions used to build the test model. Weak points, difficulties and limitations of the prototype should be explicitly mentioned, as well as possible improvement, so that further development could be pursue in the future. The report should also present all results, including figures highlighting the main findings. The results should be explained in light of the validation conducted with the experts. The report could include, or should be the basis for additional insights analysis (i.e. focus on skills mismatch).

Deliverables

The expected deliverables for this individual consultancy will be as follows:

• Brief report outlining the preliminary findings of the literature review and assessment of available data / sources;
• Validation of the forecasting model carried out;
• Data file and draft final report;
• Final report reflecting / incorporating feedback received.

Competencies

Core Competencies:

• Demonstrating/safeguarding ethics and integrity;
• Demonstrate corporate knowledge and sound judgement;
• Self-development, initiative-taking;
• Act as a team player and facilitate team work;
• Facilitating and encouraging open communication in the team, communicating effectively;
• Creating synergies through self-control;
• Managing conflict;
• Learning and sharing knowledge and encourage the learning of others;
• Informed and transparent decision-making.

Functional Competencies:

• Strong communication skills (written, spoken, composing, presentation);
• Substantive knowledge of econometrics;
• Excellent skills in using SPSS, STATA or similar statistical software;
• Prior experience in building forecasting models is highly desirable;
• Political and cultural sensitivity and commitment to UNDP’s development objectives in the country.

Required Skills and Experience

Academic Qualifications

• PhD degree in economics, statistics, or other related field combined with relevant working experience.

Work Experience

• Minimum 10 years of relevant professional experience, preferably in the field of economics, econometrics, or statistics;
• Prior solid experience in working with large data sets and carrying out econometric analysis / modelling;
• Previous experience/familiarity with UNDP or other UN agencies is desirable.

Language

• Full working knowledge of English and Albanian is essential.

Evaluation Procedure

UNDP applies a fair and transparent selection process that would consider both the technical qualification of Individual Consultants as well as their financial proposals. The contract will be awarded to the candidate whose offer:

• Is deemed technically responsive / compliant / acceptable (only technically responsive applications / candidates will be considered for the financial evaluation)
• And has obtained the highest combined technical and financial scores.

Technical Criteria - 70% of total evaluation – max points: 70

Criteria A: Practical familiarity with econometric analysis / modeling – max points: 35

Criteria B: Educational background– max points: 15

Criteria C: Brief methodology on how the consultant intends to carry out this assignment – max points: 20

Financial Criteria - 30% of total evaluation – max points: 30

Application Procedure

Interested applicants are advised to carefully study all sections of this ToRs and ensure that they meet the general requirements as well as specific qualifications described. Incomplete applications will not be considered. Please make sure you have provided all requested materials.

The application should contain:

• Cover letter explaining why you are the most suitable candidate for the advertised position. Please paste the letter into the "Resume and Motivation" section of the electronic application.

• Letter to UNDP Confirming Interest and Availability-please fill in the attached form...http://www.un.org.al/editor-files/file/PSU_%20ICLA.doc.
• Filled P11 form including past experience in similar projects and contact details of referees, please upload the P11 instead of your CV. Download here.
• Financial Proposal in ALL* - specifying a daily fee in Albanian Lek  for the tasks specified in this announcement. 
• Copy of Diplomas and copy of Passport.

*Kindly note that Letter to UNDP Confirming Interest and Availability and Financial Proposal are two separate documents and should be both part of your application.

How to Submit the Application:

To submit your application online, please follow the steps below:

• Download and complete the UN Personal History Form (P11) for Service Contracts (SCs) and Individual Contracts (ICs);
• Merge your UN Personal History Form (P11) for Service Contracts (SCs) and Individual Contracts (ICs), Financial Proposal Letter to UNDP Confirming Interest and Availability and cover letter into a single file. The system does not allow for more than one attachment to be uploaded;
• Click on the Job Title (job vacancy announcement);
• Click “Apply Now” button, fill in necessary information on the first page, and then click “Submit Application;”
• Upload your application/single file as indicated above with the merged documents (underlined above);
• You will receive an automatic response to your email confirming receipt of your application by the system.

Due to large number of applications we receive, we are able to inform only the successful candidates about the outcome or status of the selection process.

UNDP is committed to achieving workforce diversity in terms of gender, nationality and culture. Individuals from minority groups, indigenous groups and persons with disabilities are equally encouraged to apply. All applications will be treated with the strictest confidence.