UNDP Jobs - 73887- Expert on modelling and quantitative analysis for

Expert on modelling and quantitative analysis for sustainable development and its use for country policy decision

Location :

Bangkok, THAILAND

Type of Contract :

Individual Contract

Starting Date :

28-Aug-2017

Application Deadline :

31-Aug-17 (Midnight New York, USA)

Post Level :

International Consultant

Duration of Initial Contract :

28 August 2017- 15 November 2018 (Up to 30 working days).

Languages Required :

English

Expected Duration of Assignment :

Up to 30 working days

UNDP is committed to achieving workforce diversity in terms of gender, nationality and culture. Individuals from minority groups, indigenous groups and persons with disabilities are equally encouraged to apply. All applications will be treated with the strictest confidence. UNDP does not tolerate sexual exploitation and abuse, any kind of harassment, including sexual harassment, and discrimination. All selected candidates will, therefore, undergo rigorous reference and background checks.

Background

UNDP is supporting developing countries in Asia Pacific with the implementation of the 2030 Agenda. Initial country level efforts, supported by UNDP and other UN and development partners, have focused on putting in place the building blocks necessary to support SDG achievements. UNDESA and UNDP are supporting countries with capacity building projects to enhance knowledge and skills to use quantitative models to inform sustainable development policies, including the 2030 Agenda and Paris Agreement’ s NDCs.

Supporting countries’ implementation of the 2030 Agenda involves efforts to align national policies, strengthened advocacy about the importance of realizing the ambitions embedded in the Agenda, building capacity for policy design, implementation and evaluation, as well as developing institutional arrangements to promote coordination across sectors. The aim is to enhance policy coherence at all government levels, align national and sub-national development plans and budgets with the SDGs, monitor SDG progress and assess data availability and gaps. Work has also started on identifying priorities and target setting. Beyond aligning national development strategies and other policies, countries are also looking at ways to integrate the SDGs into the budget process and to come up with new, more integrated financing options.

Next steps will involve the identification of interlinkages between goals and targets and of ‘accelerator interventions’, interventions that can trigger progress across a range of goals and targets, including a literature review of quantitative estimates of inter-linkages among SDGs. It will also involve support to continue building capacity for policy design, implementation and evaluation, and support to tap into available funding schemes for sustainable development, including climate change. Many countries are keen to learn from the experience of other countries in the region and beyond in dealing with the complex challenges that the 2030 Agenda poses to countries To facilitate such exchange, UNDP’s Bangkok Regional Hub is organizing annual Regional Knowledge Exchanges, the first one took place in October 2016 in Bangkok (http://www.asia-pacific.undp.org/meetTheSDGs.html).

Realizing the 2030 Agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals needs better-informed, integrated policy making that takes into account the evidence on the impacts of and interrelationship and trade-offs between economic, social and environmental factors. Nationally relevant modelling tools are critical for providing evidence to guide policy making in weighing between trade-offs, utilizing synergies, and in anticipating shocks and impacts.

Currently, there is a number of models developed by researchers and international organizations such as economy-wide models, social models, physical, energy and environmental models. In addition, organizations and researchers are developing integrated models that combine economic, social and environmental aspects of sustainable development.

Model design and development require large amounts of data, substantial time and effort of experienced personnel. Successful model transfer and national adoption depend on continuous use of models and it then needs to be accompanied by capacity building of government technical staff and researchers in the country. Finally, before embarking on a model-building exercise, policy makers need to have greater clarity on what models can and cannot do. They require objective and rigorous assessment of existing models, their advantages and limitations their data and capacity development requirements. This information needs to be presented in a non-technical manner, so policy makers can decide in which models to invest within them. Greater ownership and understanding of models also helps to use them on a view of sustained use over the medium to long term.

The majority of the models currently available relevant to the SDGs is developed to address specific problems in a partial or integrated approach in one or several of the areas covered by the SDGs. Few recent models have been built to explicitly model the links among the SDGs and/or their targets and indicators, either adopted or still under discussion. But fewer, if any, have been in incorporated in national models to support the implementation of the 2030 Agenda and the Paris Agreement commitments. Explicitly Introducing some of the 2030 Agenda inter-linkages in a nationally built model requires reviewing a wide range of existing and emerging literature in different fields of knowledge. Such review is important to avoid, among other things, the adoption of seemingly adequate estimates that nevertheless might overlook important caveats in the relevant fields of knowledge. It is also important to ensure a robust and well-grounded selection of parameter values to be used in modeling exercises that include an explicit link to the goals, targets and indicators of the 2030 Agenda.

Considering this, UN DESA, UNDP’s Bureau for Policy and Programme Support and UNDP Bangkok Regional Hub have initiated a review of modelling tools that will address these issues, thereby enhancing the robustness of integrated models and improving their effectiveness.

This review of modelling tools will complement the work carried out by the UN Development Group, in particular, on development of SDG acceleration toolkit, which is envisaged as a reference guide and will include tools for targeting resources for needed areas, considering trade-offs and synergies between policy interventions. While the review of modelling tools will focus on tools that help analyze trade-offs and synergies, among others, and will contribute to the SDG acceleration toolkit with an in-depth review of highly technical modelling tools, as well as a review of parameters to improve the effectiveness of these modelling tools.

Duties and Responsibilities

Scope of Work

The objective of this consultancy is to provide an objective, critical, substantive, inter-disciplinary review of available models and quantitative analyses addressing the inter-linkages among the pillars of sustainable development and the SDGs with its targets and indicators in a report that can be readily be used by policy makers at the same time that can be useful for technical experts.

Expected Outputs and Deliverables

The consultant will be expected to deliver the following:

Write a guide for the use of models to support policy formulation. The guide is intended to be used by government officials and development stakeholders so they can have an idea of the range of models and methodologies available that can assist in the design of integrated policies. The guide should provide details about what methodologies are out there, how they can or are being used, what the strengths and weaknesses of each are and what that means for their uses and usefulness in providing insights for policy.

Review existing models assessing policies and inter-linkages among the pillars of sustainable development prepared for supporting policy decision-making and evaluation. The review should include models based: a) on economic theory and methodologies, general and partial equilibrium; b) on integrated assessment modeling of bio-physical, technical-engineering, and economic parameters; c) micro-simulation methodologies using survey or administrative data; d) control experiment methodologies; e) social-impact analysis; f) environmental impact assessment. The review should identify:

1) Policy decisions that can be informed by the models;

2) Where applicable, policy changes that have been influenced by the findings/application of the models;

3) Where applicable, specific SDGs and targets that have been or can be covered by the model;

4) A summary appraisal of the range of results the model can offer;

5) Theoretical underpinnings, assumptions, and strengths of the model;

6) Key limitations of the underlying theory, methodology, and application;

7) Possible extensions of the model;

8) Key data used and output results;

9) The feasibility of using adequate data and parameters in a variety of country settings, including that of countries in Asia Pacific;

10) The existence of manuals and documentation and, where they exist, the assessment of their user-friendliness;

11) Structure/ interrelationships, including methods for linking different dimensions (economic, environmental, social);

12) Assessment of the skills and knowledge needed in countries to fully own and use the model in question;

13) Whether proprietary or open source, and the cost of models, if any.

The consultant should work in close communication with consultant in contract: “Expert on country modelling and quantitative analysis for sustainable development and estimation of SDG quantitative inter-linkages”.

The consultant(s) will undertake the assignment based on desk review. UNDP Bangkok Regional Hub, UNDP-HQ, and UNDESA-DPAD will provide necessary contacts. The accomplishment of itemized tasks might include, if needed, conducting remote interviews and questionnaires.

The timeline for deliverables is expected as follows:

Deliverable 1: A draft of the research and strategy to achieve deliverables, including a preliminary list of models to be considered (3 working days, by the end of one week after signing contract);

Deliverable 2: First draft of report and guide (10 working days, by 30 Septermber 2017)

A technical report, including references and links to sources on technical specifications of models and their country-level applications, targeting technical staff/ model users.
A technical executive summary of the report, including references and links to sources on technical specifications of models and their country-level applications, targeting technical staff/ model users.
A user’s guide for government officials and development stakeholders at large to models and modelling approaches/ frameworks. The guide should support integrated decision making and evaluation of policy choices related to the implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, targeting policy makers.
A tabular presentation of the models, with relevant information, including strengths and weaknesses.;

Deliverable 3: Second full draft of report and guide, including 2.1, 2.2, 2.3 and 2.4 items. (7 working days, by 15 October 2017);

Deliverable 4: A final revised draft of report and guide including 2.1, 2.2, 2.3 and 2.4 items. (10 working days, by 15 November 2017);

Deliverable 5: Up to two training/ presentations delivered in person or through other media. (Submission deadline is as Deliverable 4).

Institutional Arrangement

The consultant (modelling expert) will report to the Inclusive Growth Team at UNDP Bangkok Regional Hub and UNDP-UNDESA (expert on modeling tools). The consultant will work closely and in consultation with the Strategy Policy Unit, Bureau of Programme and Policy Support at UNDP and the Development Policy Analysis Division of UN-DESA, New York.

Duration of the Work

28 August 2017 – 15 November 2018 (up to 30 working days).

Duty Station

Home based with no travel.

Competencies

Competencies:

Cultural and gender sensitivity and ability to work with people from different backgrounds
Ability to work both independently and in a team and ability to deliver high quality work on time;
Ability to liaise with stakeholders and partners, including governments, research institutions, civil society.

Required Skills and Experience

Education Qualifications

Postgraduate degree in economics, quantitative methods in economics or other related field, or equivalent experience; Or
Postgraduate degree in engineering, earth systems or other related fields, or equivalent experience;

Experience

Inter-disciplinary experience and practice;
Additional academic work in social research, poverty analysis or development economics is desired;
At least 7 years of experience (doctoral level studies can be substituted in lieu of experience) in developing and/ or applying economic, social or environmental/ physical models and developing/ applying inter-disciplinary analysis;
Experience working in developing countries, with governments or academic counterparts is desired.

Language

Excellent written and spoken skills in English;

Price Proposal and Schedule of Payments

The contract will be based on Lump Sum

Consultant must send a financial proposal based on Lump Sum Amount. The total amount quoted shall be all-inclusive and include all costs components required to perform the deliverables identified in the TOR, including professional fee, travel costs, living allowance (if any work is to be done outside the IC´s duty station) and any other applicable cost to be incurred by the IC in completing the assignment. The contract price will be fixed output-based price regardless of extension of the herein specified duration. Payments will be done upon completion of the deliverables/outputs and as per below percentages:
Deliverable 1-2 : 1) A draft of the research and strategy to achieve deliverables, including a preliminary list of models and 2) First draft of report and guide: 40 % of total contract amount
Deliverable 3-5: 3) Second full draft of report and guide , 4) Final revised draft of report and guide, and 5) Up to two training/ presentations delivered in person or through other media: 60 % of total contract amount

In general, UNDP shall not accept travel costs exceeding those of an economy class ticket. Should the IC wish to travel on a higher class he/she should do so using their own resources

In the event of unforeseeable travel not anticipated in this TOR, payment of travel costs including tickets, lodging and terminal expenses should be agreed upon, between the respective business unit and the Individual Consultant, prior to travel and will be reimbursed.

Travel costs shall be reimbursed at actual but not exceeding the quotation from UNDP approved travel agent. The provided living allowance will not be exceeding UNDP DSA rates. Repatriation travel cost from home to duty station in Bangkok and return shall not be covered by UNDP.

Evaluation Method and Criteria

Individual consultants will be evaluated based on the following methodology;

Cumulative analysis

The award of the contract shall be made to the individual consultant whose offer has been evaluated and determined as a) responsive/compliant/acceptable; and b) having received the highest score out of set of weighted technical criteria (70%). and financial criteria (30%). Financial score shall be computed as a ratio of the proposal being evaluated and the lowest priced proposal received by UNDP for the assignment.

Technical Criteria for Evaluation (Maximum 70 points)

Criteria 1: Education- Max 10 points;
Criteria 2: Relevant experience with developing countries on climate change adaptation, community- level finance and development- Max 10 points;
Criteria 3: Experience working in developing countries, with governments or academic counterparts, experience working with UNDP-UNDESA, or UN organs - Max 10 points;
Criteria 4: 4 Assessment of approach/methodology to assignment - Max 40 points;

Only candidates obtaining a minimum of 49 points (70% of the total technical points) would be considered for the Financial Evaluation.

Documentation required

Interested individual consultants must submit the following documents/information to demonstrate their qualifications. Please group them into one (1) single PDF document as the application only allows to upload maximum one document:

Letter of Confirmation of Interest and Availability using the template provided in Annex II.
Personal CV or P11, indicating all past experience from similar projects, as well as the contact details (email and telephone number) of the Candidate and at least three (3) professional references.
Financial proposal, as per template provided in Annex 2.

Incomplete proposals may not be considered.

For related documents to submit for this position, please click the link as below:

http://procurement-notices.undp.org/view_notice.cfm?notice_id=39811