Background

Terms of Reference

UNDAF 2015-2020 End of Programme Evaluation

United Nations in Timor-Leste

?. BACKGROUND

1. General Context

Timor-Leste has achieved substantial progress on sustainable development since its independence in 2002. Aiming to develop a prosperous and strong upper middle-income nation by 2030, the country embarked on a process of economic, social and political development, encapsulated in the National Strategic Development Plan 2011-2030 (SDP). Major investments have been made in key areas of the SDP, namely social capital, infrastructure development, economic development and strengthening of institutions. To enable progress in these sectors, the Government of Timor-Leste has focused on strengthening national systems to address complex, interrelated and evolving development challenges, and on effective mobilization and management of resources to achieve results.

The UNDAF 2015-2020 has been the overarching framework guiding the UN in Timor-Leste in addressing national development priorities articulated in the SDP. The political transitions experienced in 2017 and 2018 with the arrival of the VIII Government and the SDG agenda that came in force in 2016 are prompting the UN to take stock of progress made, draw lessons from past interventions to inform the formulation of a strategic and unique UN value proposition to bring about “UN development solutions” to meet the aspirations of the Government and accelerate progress in the implementation of national development priorities.

1. The Timor-Leste UNDAF 2015-2020

The United Nations Development Assistance Framework (UNDAF)[1] 2015-2020 for Timor-Leste was jointly developed by the Government of Timor-Leste and the UN in Timor-Leste to establish a strategic programme framework to support national development priorities as outlined by the Government of Timor-Leste in the Timor-Leste Strategic Development Plan 2011-2030. In 2015, The proportion of the net ODA as compared to GNI is 7.8% in Timor-Leste. The UNDAF also reflects the aspirations of the Sustainable Development Goals, which builds upon the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and the broader Millennium Declaration, as well as Timor-Leste’s initiatives in this regard as chair of the g7+ and as a pilot country for implementation of the landmark New Deal for Engagement with Fragile States[2].

The UNDAF Outcomes, identified and agreed by all parties, are built on solid foundations that shape the UN work and provide a benchmark to measure achievements over the implementation period between 2015 and 2020. 2017 marked the mid-point of UNDAF’s operational term offering the opportunity to review UN work in the country through the conduction of the UNDAF Mid-Term Review aimed at assessing its relevance in light of the emerging socio-economic and political contexts and international development agenda, including the 2030 Agenda and the SDGs.  

Furthermore, several UN entities have conducted evaluation exercises[3], the UNDAF End Cycle Evaluation will build upon to focus on Assistance Framework relevance, effectiveness, efficiency, and contributions toward impact while also looking at the sustainability of interventions moving into the next UNDAF cycle and the process of mainstreaming the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

1. UNDAF End of Programme Evaluation in the context of Timor-Leste

The UNCT Timor-Leste is embarking on an End of Programme UNDAF Evaluation for the period of 2015-2020, which will serve as an accountability tool for the delivery of results during the current UNDAF cycle and a major input for the planning process of the next UNDAF.

Now is the appropriate time to start preparing for the new UNDAF, in the light of the new government that has defined new programmatic priorities, as well as the recent reform of the UN Development System for which the UNDAF is a central element. Timor-Leste is one of the countries piloting the next generation UNDAF, seen as the most important UN instrument for planning and implementation of UN development activities in each country.

The UNDAF end-term evaluation will provide a robust basis for the formulation of the next UNDAF that can start even earlier than 2020. The next generation UNDAF will aim at accelerating progress on the SDGs national targets by addressing bottlenecks with a focus on those left behind or at the risk of being left behind. The end of programme evaluation will generate the evidence to cover the changing development landscape and emerging new actors and how the UN adapts to the changing environment in Timor-Leste.

II. EVALUATION PURPOSE, OBJECTIVES, TIMELINE

The UNDAF Evaluation will seek to be independent, credible and useful, and will adhere to the highest professional standards in evaluation including the United Nations Evaluation Group (UNEG) Evaluation Norms and Standards of Evaluation. The evaluation will be responsive to the needs and priorities of the UN Country Team in Timor-Leste and engage the inclusive and extensive participation of a broad range of stakeholders. The evaluation should help shape a new generation UNDAF aiming at a UN’s contribution to real improvements in Timor-Leste people‘s lives while respecting the choices and opportunities open to them.

2.1 Purpose

1. To generate evidence and lessons learnt based on the assessment of the current performance of the UNDAF outcomes and to strengthen the formulation of the next UNDAF.  The findings are expected to enhance the alignment of the new UNDAF with Government priorities and strategies and thereby strengthen programming and results at the national and subnational level.
2. To provide information for decision-making that supports national development efforts.

2.2 Users of UNDAF Evaluation

The principal purposes of each user are:

1. Primary user: UNCT

Guide document for all agencies to inform the design of Country Programmes

1. Secondary user: Government of Timor-Leste

Frame to receive international cooperation for the development of the country

1. Tertiary users: Development partners and implementing partners[4]

Support UN transparency, accountability, and integrity to deliver the results to the people the UN seek to serve.

2.3. Objectives

The objectives of the UNDAF Evaluation are:

1. Provide an independent assessment of the relevance, effectiveness, efficiency, and contributions to impact towards achievement of stated targets including SDGs given the Timor-Leste context, including, an analysis of what worked (or not) and why.
2. Assess the extent to which UNDAF is supporting the national development process and contributing to development results
3. Generate a set of clear, strategic, forward-looking and actionable strategic and programmatic recommendations based on the key lessons from current and past cooperation to strengthen the design of the next UNDAF.
4. Provide a set of actionable and evidence-based recommendations to support greater accountability of the UNCT to UNDAF stakeholders.  

 2.4. Timeline

 ?. CRITERIA OF EVALUATION & EVALUATION QUESTIONS

In line with ‘Quality Criteria for UNDAF’, the evaluation will assess UNDAF implementation according to the following criteria

A. Relevance and Strategic Focus of the UNDAF in relation to the issues it was designed to address as well as their underlying causes in the context of national policies and strategies:

• To what extent are UNDAF objectives or outcomes still valid and aligned to key national development priorities including their underlying and root causes priorities?
• Was the UNDAF (and UNCT) responsive to changing environment in Timor-Leste at national and subnational level and how did and should it adapt to these changes?
• To what extent UNDAF aligned with priorities of SDP and relevant policies?

B. Assess the Principled adherence to assess the principles of integrated programming as per outlined in UNDAF guidance to reinforce inclusivity and ensure “No one left behind” in terms of progress towards agreed UNDAF outcomes:

• To what extent have human rights principles and standards been reflected or promoted in the UNDAF?
• To what extent and in what ways has the UNDAF responded the “promise to leave no one behind and appropriately addressed the situation of the most vulnerable and marginalized groups, including through measures targeted at reducing inequalities” and other cross-cutting issues reflected in UNDAF? Were specific goals and targets for vulnerable and marginalized people set and if so have they been met?
• To what extent has institution-building and institution-strengthening taken place in human rights and gender equality terms?
• To what extent the UNDAF contains clearly articulated results (outcome level), indicators for measuring progress, and budgetary resources that reflect UN contributions based on the system’s comparative advantage in the country.

C. Assess the Effectiveness of UNDAF implementation and performance in terms of progress towards agreed UNDAF outcomes. Identify lessons learnt for future programming, particularly how the UN can best contribute to mainstreaming and localizing the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda:

• Were the objectives or outcomes achieved or not? What are the major factors that facilitated or hindered the achievement of these objectives?
• What are key factors enabling or hindering the UNDAF outcome realization, and what can be learned and incorporated into the next UNDAF cycle? 
• What are the collaborative advantage of the UN organizations to contribute to the achievement of development objectives in Timor-Leste? How have the UN agencies used these to support the implementation of the UNDAF?
• What system and tools exist for monitoring implementation of the UNDAF? What challenges have been experienced in ongoing monitoring of UNDAF implementation and what improvements could be made?

D. Assess the Efficiency of the UNDAF as a coordination and partnership framework:

• To what extent does the UNDAF demonstrate a complementary and coordinated approach by the UNDS (United Nations Development System), including consideration of joint programming and common positions on situations of concern? Are UNDAF priorities sufficiently targeted to maximize efficiency?
• To what extent does the UNDAF underpin the UN transparency and accountability to beneficiaries of assistance, including through clear mechanisms for accountability?

E. Analyse to what extent results achieved and strategies used by the UNDAF are Sustainable (i) as a contribution to national development and (ii) in terms of the added value of UNDAF for cooperation among individual AFPs:

• Has UNDAF enabled innovative approaches embedded in institutional learning for national capacity development (government, civil society and NGOSs) to enable these actors to continue achieving positive results without the UN/development partners’ support?
• Have complementarities, collaborations and /or synergies fostered by UNDAF contributed to greater sustainability of results of Development partners and Government interventions in the country?
• Does the UNDAF respond to the challenges of national capacity development and promote ownership of programmes?
• How can the next UNDAF cycle best incorporate the SDGs to ensure that the Agenda 2030 is fully reflected?

Duties and Responsibilities

?. PROPOSED EVALUATION METHODOLOGY AND PROCESS

The UNDAF End of Programme Evaluation will utilize a multi method approach and be carried out in accordance with UNEG Evaluation Norms and Standards of Evaluation and Ethical Standards and fully compliant with the UNEG Quality Checklist for Evaluation Reports.[5] The evaluation will be conducted in close collaboration with the UN Resident Coordinator’s Office (RCO), UN Country Team (UNCT), Programme Management Team (PMT), including sub-group Results Monitoring & Evaluation (RM&E) and national counterparts. The United Nations Evaluation Development Group for Asia and the Pacific (UNEDAP) will provide technical support.

1.  Methodology

The End of Programme evaluation is a programmatic evaluation in that it assesses the UNCT’s performance against the UNDAF programmatic framework that specifies its strategic intent, objectives and outcomes set forth in the results framework. The evaluation will consider contribution of the UNCT to the change in the stated UNDAF outcomes and the evaluators will need to explain how the UNCT contributed to the observed results. and how to ensure that the evaluation identifies critical areas for the UNCT to focus its work in moving forward and given the changing context of UN reform.

During the inception phase, the evaluation team will propose a detailed methodology designed to provide evidence around the result areas of the UNDAF 2015-2020. An evaluation matrix will be prepared during the inception phase in which the sources of data, methods and criteria will be defined for each evaluation question, including assuring triangulation of data. The inception report should include – description of data sources, data collection and analysis methods, indicators, triangulation plan, factors for comparative analysis, validation strategy, detailed stakeholder analysis and a clear indication of how and which national and provincial entities and communities will be consulted, engaged and involved in the evaluation process. Adherence to UN code of conduct, a human rights-based, gender equality and women’s empowerment sensitive approach, and inclusive approach for addressing the needs of people with disabilities, data collection and treatment should be made explicit in the inception report.  

The evaluation will be conducted using a rights-based and inclusive approach, with explicit attention to gender equality, women’s empowerment, and the needs of persons living with disabilities. The evaluation will comply with the UNEG “Standards for Evaluation in the UN system”, “Norms for Evaluation in UN System and “Ethical Guidelines for Evaluation.”[6]

Data collection and data analysis – the UNDAF evaluation will use a multiple method approach, which will include the following: desk review of reference materials, interviews with relevant/key stakeholders (i.e. government, officials/partners, donors, CSOs, people’s organizations/communities, the private sector and beneficiaries), site visits, and community meetings.

Stakeholder participation – the UNDAF evaluation will be conducted in an extensive and inclusive manner and utilization-focused approach, ensuring the involvement of key stakeholders in all phases of the evaluation and boosting ownership of the evaluation shall be adopted. This phase should include the reconstruction of the Theory of Change to strengthen stakeholders’ ownership and pave robust way for the planning of the next UNDAF

Validation – findings will be supported with evidence. Triangulation of qualitative and quantitative data will help ensure the validity the conclusions drawn. A report will be prepared including identified constraints, lessons learned and challenges in relation to the priority interventions as well as specific recommendations made both to the UNCT and to individual agencies.

While the evaluation will be conducted mainly in Dili, capital of Timor-Leste, the Evaluation Team should plan to undertake 1-2 field visits to other municipalities in their methodology. When choosing sites to visit, the Evaluation Team should consider the availability of baseline data for these sites and make the choice of the locations to visit based on the implementation of relevant UN programmes in these areas. The proposed field visits should be presented in the inception report, and discussed with the Programme Management Team (PMT) and UNCT.

The evaluation approach should follow the UNEG guidance on integrating human rights and gender equality, UNEG norms and standards and international principles for development evaluation. In line with the UN System-Wide Action Plan (UN-SWAP) on gender equality, data collection methods and process should be gender responsive. The final report should be compliant with UNEG quality checklist of evaluation reports and acknowledge how inclusive stakeholder participation was ensured during the evaluation process and any challenges to obtaining the gender equality information or to addressing these issues appropriately. Data should be systematically disaggregated by sex and age and, to the extent possible, disaggregated by geographical region, ethnicity, disability, migratory status and other contextually-relevant markers of equity.

4.2. Processes

The evaluation will be conducted in three phases:

Phase 1- Preparation:

• Collection of reference material: The UN RCO, in close consultations with the Results Monitoring and Evaluation (RM&E), will compile a list of background materials, documents, and reports relevant to the UNDAF Evaluation.
• Identification and selection of consultants: The UN RCO will take the lead, jointly with the PMT in collaboration with RM&E, in soliciting CVs of available consultants and prepare pre-selection of candidates that meet the requirements. The UNCT will agree on the selection process and agree upon eligible candidates. The consultants will be sourced on individual basis.
• Development of evaluation strategy and design: Prior to the main data collection phase, the UNDAF Evaluation Team Leader will assess the availability of evaluative evidence, and develop an evaluation plan, which will include a design matrix, data collection and analysis methods and potential sites for field visits.

Phase 2 – Conduct of data collection activities and the preparation of the evaluation reports:

• Desk review of reference material: The Evaluation Team will be responsible for reviewing the reference documents, reports and any other data and information provided by the RCO.
• Main data collection mission: The Evaluation Team will conduct data collection activities as guided by the Evaluation Plan. The team will conduct agreed-upon interviews with stakeholders, surveys, questionnaires and site visits.
• Data analysis and reporting: The Evaluation Team will conduct further data analysis based on all information collected and present the preliminary findings to stakeholders prior to preparing a draft evaluation report. The UNDAF Evaluation Team will write and submit the draft report to the UNCT. The UNDAF Report will be written in accordance with its respective Terms of Reference, the Evaluation Plan and other established guidance documents.
• Review of the draft report and finalization of the report: the draft UNDAF Evaluation Report will be submitted to key stakeholders for factual correction and feedback. The Evaluation Team Leader, in consultation with the UNCT, will prepare a comment matrix to indicate how the comments were taken into account, and together with the team of consultants, will finalize the UNDAF Evaluation Report.
• Stakeholder workshops: A meeting with the key stakeholders will be organized to present initial findings and recommendation of evaluation the first revision to refine the report

Phase 3 - Finalization Report: The UNCT together with the RCO will conduct follow-up activities, as guided by their respective processes and mandates. In the context of the UNDAF Evaluation:

• Organization of a stakeholders’ meeting/ workshop (UNCT, government and development partners) to validate and refine findings, conclusions and recommendations, discuss dissemination and communication strategies and plan for implementation of evaluation recommendations. The follow-up plan should determine a process for ensuring that lessons learnt are incorporated into the next UNDAF programming cycle.
• Dissemination of the evaluation findings and recommendations. Implementation of a follow-up plan, in particular focusing on the design of a new UNDAF cycle.

[1] The UNDAF is structured along the four strategic development sectors defined in the Timor-Leste Strategic Development Plan 2011-2030. The four sectors are: (1) Social Capital (2) Infrastructure Development (3) Economic Development and (4) Governance and Institutional Development.[1] Aligned with these four sectors, four outcomes and seventeen sub-outcomes have been elaborated to respond and evolve the needs within each sector. This structure ensures the national ownership and alignment of UN development activities to national priorities and provides the basis for collaboration with development partners

[2] The 2nd Fragility Assessment (2015) was led and fully led funded by the Government of Timor-Leste through the Ministry of Finance, and included technical support from key relevant Ministries, and both expertise and financial support from g7+ Secretariat to facilitate the data collection and consultations. In the main findings from the 2nd Fragility Assessment for the five Peacebuilding and Statebuilding Goals particular emphasis was placed on the need for continued gender inclusion, financial transparency of institutions and political parties, better quality of service delivery, improved Tetum representation in the justice and education systems, infrastructure development, and improved employment opportunities in all industries.

[3] WHO and UNFPA undertook a Mid-Term Review in 2017. In 2018, UNDP conducted an ICPE (Independent Country Programme Evaluation) and FAO conducted Country Programme Evaluation. IOM is underway the project evaluations.

[4] Private Sectors, Civil Society Organizations, Academia, International/National NGOs, International Organizations, Faith-Based Organizations, Community-Based Organizations, etc.

[5] 15http://www.unevaluation.org/document/detail/607

Competencies

?. EVALUATION TEAM COMPOSITION

The UNDAF Evaluation will be commissioned to an external independent Evaluation Team composed of:

1) An international evaluation Consultant who will act as Team Leader. S/he will focus on the evaluation of development results and will have overall responsibility for producing the UNDAF Evaluation Report as well as the quality and timely submission of the same Report to the UN RC Office and UNCT; and

2) A national evaluation Consultant will support the evaluation and help to provide socio-economic and cultural context.

The International consultant will be identified and selected first. S/he will be deeply involved in the selection of the national consultant.

Required Skills and Experience

5.1. Qualification of the International Consultant

The international consultant will work with the National Consultant. As UNDAF Evaluation team leader, s/he should possess the following minimum qualifications:

• Advanced university degree (Masters and equivalent) in development studies, economics, international relations, or related field; PhD an asset.
• At least, 10 years of relevant professional experience, including previous experience as team leader conducting evaluations in multilateral or bilateral settings, and leading multi-cultural, multi-disciplinary teams.  Excellent knowledge of and experience with the UN system and UN common country programming processes; prior experience in working with multilateral agencies; Previous experience in UNDAF evaluations and with the UNDAF framework should be considered an advantage;
• Knowledge about development context of Timor-Leste and the Region would be an advantage
• Knowledge of the development issues in lower mid-income countries;
• Good knowledge of health and nutrition, education, youth and justice issues will be an asset;
• Specialized experience and/or methodological/technical knowledge, including data collection and analytical skills, particularly in the following areas: understanding of human rights-based approaches to programming; gender analysis; environmental sustainability, theory of change, Results Based Management (RBM) principles; logic modelling/logical framework analysis; quantitative and qualitative data collection and analysis; participatory approaches;

• Fluency in English, excellent oral, written, communication, and reporting skills; and
• Familiarity with information technology, including proficiency in word processing, spreadsheets, and presentation software, etc.

5.2. Qualification of the National Consultant

The consultant will work with the International Consultant. As UNDAF Evaluation team member, s/he should possess the following minimum qualifications:

• Advanced university degree (Masters and equivalent) in development studies, economics, international relations, or related field;
• 8 years of relevant professional experience is highly desirable, including previous substantive involvement in evaluations, research and/or reviews;
• Excellent knowledge of the UN system and UN common country programming processes;
• Good knowledge and experience with the national development frameworks, especially Timor-Leste Strategic Development Plan (SDP), Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), etc.;
• Specialized experience and/or methodological/technical knowledge, including some specific data collection and analytical skills, particularly in the following areas: Results Based Management (RBM) principles; logic modelling/logical framework analysis; quantitative and qualitative data collection and analysis; participatory approaches;
• Good knowledge and experience on human rights-based approaches to programming; gender equality and Women’s Empowerment and People leaving with Disabilities considerations;
• Excellent written and spoken English; and
• Excellent report writing skills as well as communication and interviewing skills.

?. DELIVERABLES

1. Inception report and evaluation work plan

The Evaluation Team will be responsible for identifying appropriate methodologies for data collection. This may include a mix of quantitative and qualitative methodologies and may include: surveys, questionnaires, desk review, direct observation, interviews and focus group discussions. The proposed methodology should generate credible evidence to answer the evaluation questions, while taking into account available resource and timeline. The Evaluation Team will present their proposed methodology as part of the Inception Report which will include a stakeholder map, the final list of evaluation questions, the evaluation matrix, the overall evaluation design, a detailed description of the data collection plan for the field phase, and a description of the roles and responsibilities of the individual team members.

1. A PowerPoint presentation highlighting the main components of the final inception report, to be presented to the UNCT.
2. A PowerPoint presentation and stakeholder meeting to share and explain findings to stakeholders after data collection phase has ended.
3. Draft UNDAF End of Programme Evaluation Report. The Evaluation Team will write a draft UNDAF report, including a reconstructed Theory of Change and a proposed action plan for implementation of evaluation recommendations, keeping in mind the proposed structure of the final UNDAF report (ANNEX 4) distributing to members of the PMT (and RM&E) for review and comments. The revised draft report shall thereafter be submitted to the UNCT with a validation workshop being held to validate the preliminary findings and recommendations. Checklist for Evaluation Report for guidance: http://www.unevaluation.org/documnt/detail/607
4. Final UNDAF End of Programme Evaluation Report. The final report should be based on at least two rounds of commenting on draft evaluation reports, taking into account potential comments from the PMT, RM&E and the UNCT. The final version will be submitted in English to the UN Country Team through the Resident Coordinator for review. It will include a set of clear, forward-looking and actionable recommendations logically linked to the findings and conclusions, and identify lessons learnt to improve the strategies, implementation mechanisms, and management of the next UNDAF as well as a proposed Action Plan for the next programme cycle. There will be clear guidance not only for mainstreaming the SDGs into the next UNDAF cycle, but also for supporting UN reform proactively.

VII. SCOPE OF PRICE, PROPOSAL AND SCHEDULE OF PAYMENTS

Lump Sum Contract: The Financial Proposal must be expressed in the form of an all-inclusive[1] Lump Sum Amount, linked to the Expected Outputs and Deliverables, supported by a breakdown of costs as per the template provided by UNDP. Under the lump sum approach, the contract price is fixed, regardless of changes in the cost components or duration of the assignment.

Travel; All envisaged travel costs must be included in the financial proposal. This includes all travels to join duty station/repatriation travel.  In general, UNDP should not accept travel costs exceeding those of an economy class ticket. Should the IC wish to travel on a higher class he/she should do so using their own resources. In the case of unforeseeable travel, payment of travel costs including tickets, lodging and terminal expenses should be agreed upon, between the respective business unit and Individual Consultant, prior to travel and will be reimbursed.

?. DURATION AND PAYMENT SCHEDULE

The Evaluation is expected to take 70 working days from October 2018 to February 2019 with the International Consultant engaged for forty 40 days, the National Consultant engaged for 30 days. Fees shall be paid based on the delivery of the following outputs and corresponding tranches and based on the quality assurance process:

Each Consultants shall be required to submit a financial proposal based on an all-inclusive lump sum amount. The said amount shall be fixed regardless of the changes on the actual cost of the component included in the lump sum amount. Failure to deliver agreed work on time may result in the UN withholding part payment for the work.

Recommended Presentation of Offer

Interested individual consultants must submit the following documents/information to demonstrate their qualifications:

1. Dully accomplished Letter of Confirmation of Interest and Availability using the template provided by UNDP (to be downloaded from the procurement notice link http://procurement-notices.undp.org/view_notice.cfm?notice_id=49950);
2. Personal CV or P11, indicating all past experience from similar projects, as well as the contact details (email and telephone number) of the Candidate and at least three (3) professional references;
3. A brief methodology and step by step timeline on how he/she will approach and complete the assignment, and
4. Financial Proposal in the template provided by UNDP (to be downloaded from the procurement notice link http://procurement-notices.undp.org/view_notice.cfm?notice_id=49950).

1. Criteria for Selection of the Best Offer

X. APPROVAL

This TOR is approved by:

Signature:

Name and Designation:

Date of Signing:

ANNEX 1: TIMOR-LESTE DEVELOPMENT CONTEXT

After 500 years of Portuguese colonization and 24 years of Indonesian occupation, Timor-Leste regained independence on 20 May 2002 as the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste. Timor-Leste is a lower middle-income country with a population of 1.2 million and a landmass size of 15,410 km2. The country belongs to the Small Island Developing States group.

Economic improvements and GDP growth has averaged 4% a year in the past five years.[2] Coffee export account the majority percent of Timor-Leste’s exports. In 2017, coffee exports have increased to almost $30 million, which is more than double their level over past three years.[3] However, government’s consumption, exports, and investment in 2017 were mostly weakened and the GDP growth was fallen sharply.[4]This contraction is driven by a reversal of trend in government spending following the duodecimal budget regime and caretaker government dissolution of Parliament in January 2018. Timor-Leste’s overall institutional framework is weak, showing the average 2.8 value of Country Policy of Institutional Assessment (1=low, 6=high).[5] This weakness are linked to government’s financial management and public administration that may hinder the economic development of Timor-Leste.Anticipated election was held on May 2018 and the new Prime Minister was sworn-in on June 2018. Upcoming approval and related program of government, and the resumption  regular public spending  are expected to revive the economy.

By 2021, Timor-Leste’s dependence on the petroleum fund accounting for 90% (US $16 Billion) of the country’s revenue could be depleted.[6] In January 2017, the Timorese Government announced the termination of the 2006 Treaty on Certain Maritime Arrangements in the Timor Sea (CMATS) and in March 2018 Timor-Leste and Australia signed a treaty on permanent maritime boundaries that established a fair border between the two countries. The maritime border negotiations are critical to the development of the Sunrise Oil field, which was discovered in the 1970s as a new source of oil and income. Urgency for a diversified non-oil economy is underway with diversification of the key sectors of the economy – the private sector, including agriculture and tourism.

Timor-Leste’s HDI value for 2016 is 0.585 positioning it at 133 out of 188 countries and territories.[7] Between 2000 and 2016, Timor-Leste’s HDI value increased from 0.470 to 0.585, and increase of 24.5 percent. However, significant human development challenges remain including poverty, stunting, malnourishment and maternal mortality. Public Health expenditure remains at a low of 1.3% of GDP hindering developments in sanitation and clean water resources. The poverty rate in 2017 continues to remain at a high of 41.8%[8] disproportionately affecting the rural population that makes up 70% of Timor-Leste’s 1.3[9] million people and whom reside in ecologically fragile and disaster-prone areas.

Despite these challenges, Timor-Leste has been particularly successful in creating peace and stability. National political conflict and communal/ideological conflict has remarkably decreased since 2006.[10] Furthermore, Timor-Leste has been ranked as the most democratic nation in Southeast Asia, fifth in Asia and coming 43rd globally in the Democracy Index 2017.[11]

Since the Restoration of Independence in 2002, the UN has been committed to supporting Timor-Leste to enact transformative policies and programmes to achieve its vision of a healthy, well-educated, prosperous, equitable and strong institution, framed in the national Strategic Development Plan 2011-2030. After the departure of UNMIT, United Nations Agencies, Funds and Programmes remained in the country to provide support to long-term national development priorities, framed in the National Strategic Development Plan 2011-2030, leaving behind the post-conflict period and shifting to a sustainable development along the priority areas of the Government of Timor-Leste.

ANNEX 2: MANAGEMENT, ROLES AND RESPONSIBILITIES

ANNEX 3: RECOMMENDED LIST OF DOCUMENTS

1. Timor-Leste Strategic Development Plan 2011-2030

http://timor-leste.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/Timor-Leste-Strategic-Plan-2011-20301.pdf

1. Timor-Leste Population and Housing Census 2015

http://www.statistics.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/1-Preliminary-Results-4-Printing-Company-19102015.pdf

1. Timor-Leste Demographic Survey (TLDHS)
2. Timor-Leste SDG Roadmap 2017 http://timor-leste.gov.tl/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/UNDP-Timor-Leste_SDP-Roadmap_doc_v2_English_220717.pdf
3. Mid-Term Review 2017 WHO Country Cooperation Strategy: 2015-2019, Timor-Leste
4. Mid-Term Review 2017 UNFPA Country Cooperation Strategy: 2015-2019, Timor-Leste
5. UNDP, UNICEF & UNFPA Country Programme Action Plan (CPAPs) for Timor-Leste 2015-2019
6. Country Policy and Institutional Assessment Data Bank, http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=country-policy-and-institutional-assessment   
7. World Bank, Timor-Leste economic report, March 2018
8. 2nd Fragility Assessment Report in Timor-Leste, Dili, September 2015
9. UNDP, Timor-Leste National Human Development Report, 2018
10. Timor-Leste Population. (2018-06-15). Retrieved 2018-07-17, from http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/timor-leste/
11. The Asia Foundation, The State of Conflict and Violence in Asia, October 2017
12. ILO, Decent Work Country Programme (DWCP) Timor-Leste 2016 - 2020

ANNEX 4: STRUCTURE OF THE UNDAF REPORT

Title page

Name of programme or theme being evaluated

Country of project/programme or theme

Name of the organization to which the report is submitted

Names and affiliations of the evaluators

Date

Table of Contents

List of acronyms

Executive summary

• A self-contained paper of 1-3 pages.
• Summarize essential information on the subject being evaluated, the purpose and objectives of the UNDAF End of Programme Evaluation methods applied and major limitations, the most important findings, conclusions and recommendations in priority order. (Maximum 5 pages)

(Main Report; Maximum 35 pages)

Introduction

• (Context and national priorities, goals, and methodology, brief description of the results)
• Describe the project/programme/theme being evaluated. This includes the problems that the interventions are addressing; the aims, strategies, scope and cost of the intervention; its key stakeholders and their roles in implementing the intervention.
• Summarize the UNDAF purpose, objectives, and key questions. Explain the rationale for selection/non- selection of evaluation criteria.
• Describe the methodology employed to conduct the UNDAF End of Programme Evaluation and its limitations if any.
• Detail who was involved in conducting the UNDAF End of Programme Evaluation and what were their roles.
• Describe the structure of the UNDAF End of Programme Evaluation report.
• A Reflection on the main findings which considers: (a) the results of the desk review of existing documentation available, and (b) the interviews conducted with Heads of UN Agencies, selected senior programme staff, and selected senior Government officials.
• Results by UNDAF Outcome: national progress, specific contribution of UN agencies and resources mobilized etc.

Partnership and collaboration strategy among UNCT and other donors; and evaluation of the efficiency and effectiveness of UNDAF as a partnership framework

Major Challenges

UNDAF Financial Management

Assessment of M&E process

Findings

State findings based on the evidence derived from the information collected. Assess the degree to which the intervention design is applying results-based management principles and human rights-based approach. In providing a critical assessment of performance, analyze the linkages between inputs, activities, outputs, outcomes and if possible impact. To the extent possible measure achievement of results in quantitative and qualitative terms. Analyze factors that affected performance as well as unintended effects, both positive and negative. Discuss the relative contributions of stakeholders to achievement of results. Assess how/if the intervention has contributed to gender equality and fulfilment of human rights.

Lessons learnt

Based on the findings and drawing from the evaluator(s)’ overall experience in other contexts if possible provide lessons learned that may be applicable in other situations as well. Include both positive and negative lessons.

Recommendations

• Formulate relevant, specific and realistic recommendations that are based on the evidence gathered, conclusions made and lessons learned. Discuss their anticipated implications. Consult key stakeholders when developing the recommendations.
• List proposals for action to be taken (short and long-term) by the person(s), unit or organization responsible for follow-up in priority order. Maximum of ten recommendation points.

Conclusions

Conclusions should be substantiated by the findings and be consistent with the data collected. They must relate to the UNDAF objectives and provide answers to the evaluation questions. They should also include a discussion of the reasons for successes and failures, especially the constraints and enabling factors.

Follow up Plan

• This may include current UNDAF
• Next UNDAF
• Provide suggested time lines and cost estimates (where relevant) for implementation.

Annexes may include the following (maximum 10-15 pages)

• Attach ToR (for the UNDAF End of Programme Evaluation).
• List persons interviewed, sites visited.
• List documents reviewed (reports, publications).
• Data collection instruments (e.g. copies of questionnaires, surveys, etc.).
• Assessment of the progress by outcomes in relevance to the nationally defined goals.
• Photos
• Stories worth telling (Most Significant changes [MSC])
• List of used documents and persons met.

*The UNDAF Evaluation Report should be developed in accordance with the UNEG “Standards for Evaluation in the UN system”, “Norms for Evaluation in UN System and “Ethical Guidelines for Evaluation.” Analysis should include an appropriate discussion of the relative contributions of stakeholders to results. It will consider the evaluation objectives as per relevance, effectiveness, efficiency, impact and sustainability of results, as well as the key issues of design, focus and comparative advantage.

[1] The term “All inclusive” implies that all costs (professional fees, travel costs, living allowances, communications, consumables, etc.) that could possibly be incurred by the Contractor are already factored into the final amounts submitted in the proposal

[2] UNDP, Timor-Leste National Human Development Report, April 2018, p.48

[3] World Bank, Timor-Leste economic report, March 2018, p.7

[4] World Bank, Timor-Leste economic report, March 2018, p.1

[5] Country Policy and Institutional Assessment Data Bank, http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=country-policy-and-institutional-assessment

[6] UNDP, Timor-Leste National Human Development Report, April 2018, p.48

[7] UNDP, Timor-Leste National Human Development Report, April 2018, p.4

[8] World Bank, Timor-Leste Economic Report, March 2018, p.1

[9] Timor-Leste Population. (2018-06-15). Retrieved 2018-07-17, from http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/timor-leste/

[10] The Asia Foundation, The State of Conflict and Violence in Asia, October 2017, p.181

[11] The Economist, Democracy Index, 2017, https://www.eiu.com/topic/democracy-index