Background

Republic of North Macedonia is a disaster-prone country that is particularly vulnerable to the risk of floods. Most river basins experience dramatic variations in water flows over time, and the risk of floods is also exacerbated by the country’s mountainous topography and land structure. In recent years, extreme weather events caused by changing climate conditions, including torrential rains, have heightened this risk. However, human factors are also at work. Changing land use and land cover – for example, through cultivation or construction in wetland areas, rapid urbanization and heightened erosion from logging in forests – are altering hydrological regimes, increasing the risk of floods. Other causes include incomplete, poorly maintained, decaying or inappropriately used flood control infrastructure.

The frequency of flooding, however, is higher in the northwestern region (Upper Vardar River Basin or the Polog region) than anywhere else in the country where damages and losses caused by floods have been on the rise over the past few years. Such magnitude of consequences of recent floods is a result of incomplete, missing or poorly maintained structural measures in combination with poor policies and legislation, institutional and inter-agency coordination deficiencies, unclear communication mechanisms in time of crisis and limited community awareness.

To address the growing flood-related challenges in the Polog Region and country-wide, and the associated socio-economic consequences, SECO and SDC are funding together the Improving Resilience to Floods in the Polog Region programme comprising a comprehensive set of flood mitigation and resilience building measures. The programme has the ambitious goal of instigating transformational change in managing flood risk in the region, supporting an accelerated evolution from reactive responses to floods to integrated systems for reducing and managing the hazards, vulnerabilities and exposure of communities and assets to prevent/mitigate losses and alleviate impacts of future floods. It will therefore be used as an example for improving the national framework for flood risk management, including securing long-term financing mechanisms.

More specifically, the programme aims to substantively support achieving: a) an improved knowledge of region’s flood risk, causes and appropriate responses among authorities and other stakeholders; b) an inclusive approach to flood risk management planning in line with EU legislation that is sensitive to the specific needs of different vulnerable social groups; c) a better preparedness for flood risks and strengthened recovery capacity thanks to improved governance; d) progress toward flood risk-based urban and economic development; e) a reduction in the adverse consequences of future floods in high-risk areas through the repair or construction of flood control infrastructure in line with contemporary approaches and techniques; f) creation of a flash-flood early warning and public-alert system; g) progress in the adoption of the objectives and principles of the EU Floods Directive and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, and h) advocacy of risk financing and risk transfer mechanisms.

In terms of risk financing and risk transfer mechanisms, the programme will place emphasis on conceptualizing and facilitating the introduction of long-term risk financing and risk transfer mechanisms at national, regional (e.g., river basin), and local (e.g., municipal) levels, facilitated by a policy dialogue process. ?The purpose of this work will be to enable strategizing future risk mitigation investments through increased public expenditures in flood prevention, justifying a cost-effective use of increasingly scarce financial resources. Moreover, on the basis of comprehensive risk assessments, and understanding mitigation potentials and limitations (i.e. residual risk), the project will consider a full possibility of financial mechanisms for prevention, post-disaster response and risk transfer, aiming to improve the overall ability of institutions, businesses and communities to respond more resiliently to disastrous flood events in future.

Wishing to launch this project component, UNDP seeks to hire an International Expert (Risk Financing and Risk Transfer Mechanisms Expert) with extensive previous experience in relevant policy analysis and development in risk finance which will help further position the project to instigate and support national level reform processes. The International Expert will be supported by a national risk finance/transfer expert (please see VII Terms and conditions, Professional Support).

Purpose of the Consultancy

Scope of Work

The International Expert: Risk Financing and Risk Transfer Mechanisms Expert is expected to provide high-quality advisory services to support the implementation of the flood risk financing and risk transfer component of the programme Improving Resilience to Floods in the Polog Region. Specifically, s/he will be responsible for preparing a comprehensive national level gap analysis targeting existing financial capacities and instruments vis-à-vis the actual needs based on the improved knowledge about country’s overall flood risk situation (to be completed as part of a parallel processed supported by the programme). Based on this analysis, the expert will be expected to outline a national level roadmap for risk financing and risk transfer component of the programme that will help position it optimally to utilize the momentum and fit to other ongoing and planned changes in the risk finance/transfer area.

Duties and Responsibilities

Under the direct supervision of Programme Manager, and in close cooperation with the relevant national institutions, and with support of a national expert, the International Expert: Risk Financing and Risk Transfer Mechanisms Expert will undertake the following specific tasks:

1.Review of available documents and meetings/interviews to:

• Familiarize him/herself with all relevant programme documents, and available relevant technical documentation such as comprehensive flood risk assessments carried out country-wide through different UNDP-backed projects;
• Study current national and local level flood risk financing strategies, policies and instruments;
• Identify relevant case studies and good practices (e.g., from Switzerland, EU, and neighboring countries) to support be used as models for the overall concept;
• Understand relevant analytical work related to flood risk financing/transfer carried out under past and ongoing national and regional (SEE) level initiatives (e.g. SECO-funded Southeast Europe Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility);
• Review current flood risk transfer strategies and policies and other relevant national legislation, as well as general government understanding of and awareness for flood risk transfer as well as roles and responsibilities of national policy and regulatory institutions in the country in terms of: 1) ability of the government to impose mandatory or optional or mixed flood insurance schemes; 2) adequacy of risk transfer arrangements (e.g., catastrophe bonds), insurance of public assets etc., 3) ensuring general availability or affordability of financial tools, for instance by deepening financial capacity for the assumption of flood risk;
• Review the extent of availability, adequacy and efficiency of private insurance markets in terms of disaster insurance coverage provided by the private insurance industry in the country in terms of flood insurance as well as the technical capacity of national insurance markets to manage flood risks;
• Based on discussions with local stakeholders and experts, assess people’s capacity and willingness-to-pay, and attitudes toward and knowledge of flood risk, targeting primarily the Polog region;
• Analyze financial gaps between risks reduced by structural and other non-structural measures and optimal funding required for cost effective risk finance on the national level, and specifically for the Polog region (based on documentation that will be made available by UNDP. Namely, the programme will run a parallel process of compiling existing and new flood risk assessments in the course of a national-level flood risk mapping exercise).

2. Develop a roadmap of risk financing and risk transfer mechanisms component of the programme which will position the programme in the national landscape concerning risk finance and risk transfer and enable it to support national processes in identifying an optimal risk financing scenario at local (Polog region) and national level and strengthen the existing institutions in this regard. More specifically the roadmap document will comprise the following key elements:

• Outline of a policy dialogue process with the national regulatory and policy making institutions, local institutions and key service providers;
• Technical, financial, operational, legal and institutional issues and challenges and possible solutions and strategies for developing the identified risk financing and risk transfer strategies and instruments;
• Develop Terms of Reference/Scope of Work to be undertaken by the programme including estimated budget and timeline which will lead to selection of an optimal scenario for risk finance and risk transfer involving a mix of options/tools. ?
• Programme for capacity building in the field of flood risk financing and flood risk transfer, targeting the key institutions and organizations working in the area;
• Overview of specific case studies and good practices (especially from Switzerland and the EU) to support fine-tuning of concepts, and implementation measures.

3.Visit the country/Polog region during two missions to the country over the period of 6 months (anticipated 5 days each including the days of the travel) for meetings and interviews to support the preparation of the deliverables.

Expected Outputs and Deliverables

The International Expert: Risk Financing and Risk Transfer Mechanisms Expert will be responsible for producing the following types of outputs (deliverables):

• A white paper on existing situation in terms of flood risk financing and risk transfer in the country (as outlined under part 1 of Duties and responsibilities);
• Report with relevant case studies/best practices from other countries (e.g., Switzerland, EU, neighboring countries);
• A final project report which incorporates a roadmap for execution of risk financing and risk transfer mechanisms component of the programme including recommendation and an action plan for execution of further to support feasible risk financing and risk transfer models, including Terms of Reference (as outlined in part 2 of Duties and responsibilities).

Indicative timeline:

Competencies

• Strong research, analytical, reporting and writing abilities;
• Demonstrates excellent organizational skills and proven ability to deliver consultancy products within deadlines;
• Ability to synthesize research and draw conclusions on the related subject.

Required Skills and Experience

.The International Expert: Risk Financing and Risk Transfer Mechanisms Expert will be able to respond to the following key requirements:

• Advanced university degree (minimum M.Sc.) in Insurance, Risk Management, Actuarial Sciences, Economics, Disaster Risk Management, Finance, Accounting, Statistics, Econometrics, Public Finances or other relevant fields of study;
• Minimum 12 years of relevant professional experience in risk financing/risk transfer, insurance policy and regulation, public finances, preferably from work with renowned finance/(re)insurance institutions/companies or public sector entities;
• Record of 5 similar assignments (consultancies on design of disaster risk financing solutions, macro and micro economic analysis of risk transfer, disaster risk management and financing, insurance, microinsurance and reinsurance)
• Solid understanding of disaster risk financing in Eastern Europe is an asset;
• Excellent communications, report writing and analytical skills;
• English language proficiency.

Terms and Conditions

• Language/Reporting

All deliverables/outputs need to be prepared in English. The produced documents shall be subject to proofreading, while the quality of the final versions is subject to UNDP approval.

• Duration of the assignment

Maximum available time for development of the task is 30 days over a period of 6 months.

• Payment schedule

The payment for the services will be carried out in installments linked to submission and approval of the deliverable indicated above. NOTE: number, value and distribution of installments can be adjusted prior to signing of contract.

• Professional support

A national risk finance/transfer expert will be hired to facilitate the work of the international expert by: a) supporting data collection and analysis; b) introduction to the country context, challenges and future development possibilities; c) supporting meeting with stakeholders; and d) support to preparing of key deliverables.

• Travel requirements

The consultant is expected to have two missions to the country in the course of the assignment. Each mission will be 8 to 10 days, including the days of the travel. Preliminary travel schedule is presented bellow (NOTE: this schedule is tentative and for orientation purposes only. It is subject to modifications depending on actual project needs, and consultant’s availability):

• Tickets should be on most direct economic class (business and first-class airfare are not permitted as per UNDP rules and regulations);

NOTE: If unforeseen travel is requested by UNDP and not required by the Terms of References (ToR), such travel shall be covered by UNDP in line with applicable rules and regulations and upon prior written agreement.

Documents to be Submitted

Applicant’s offer has to comprise the following documents:

1. Offeror’s letter (summarizing qualifications and relevance for the assignment based on previous experience) as per the following form LINK
2. Most updated professional CV with focus on required qualification;
3. Brief description of why the individual considers him/herself as the most suitable for the assignment and list of at least 5 most relevant assignments (consultancies on design of disaster risk financing solutions, macro and micro economic analysis of risk transfer, disaster risk management and financing, insurance, microinsurance and reinsurance)
4. Brief methodology/approach (not more than 2 pages) for carrying out the assignment including an outline of the key steps;
5. Financial proposal. The financial proposal must be expressed in the form of an all-inclusive daily fee in USD (all-inclusive includes the daily expert fee, cost of travel for two missions, communications, any other expenses related to this assignment, travel ticket - most direct economic class etc.)

CRITERIA FOR SELECTION OF BEST OFFER

Step I: Screening / Longlisting

Applications will be screened and only candidates meeting the following minimum criteria will progress to the pool for shortlisting:

• Advanced university degree (minimum M.Sc.) in Insurance, Risk Management, Actuarial Sciences, Economics, Disaster Risk Management, Finance, Accounting, Statistics, Econometrics, Public Finances or other relevant fields of study;
• Minimum 12 years of relevant professional experience in risk financing/risk transfer, insurance policy and regulation, public finances, preferably from work with renowned finance/(re)insurance institutions/companies or public sector entities;
• Record of minimum 5 similar assignments (consultancies on design of disaster risk financing solutions, macro and micro economic analysis of risk transfer, disaster risk management and financing, insurance, microinsurance and reinsurance)
• Solid understanding of disaster risk financing in Eastern Europe is an asset;
• Excellent communications, report writing and analytical skills;
• English language proficiency.

Step II: Shortlisting by Desk Review and Interview

UNDP will conduct a desk review on applications to produce a shortlist of candidates by evaluating the technical criteria based on the table below including an interview with the invited shortlisted candidates. Having done a desk review of applications UNDP will invite the top 3 to 4 shortlisted candidates for interview.

Only candidates obtaining a minimum of 49 points (70%) in the technical evaluation shall be considered for the financial evaluation.

Step III Financial Evaluation

Upon completion of the technical evaluation, the panel members evaluated the financial offer of the candidate that met the minimum threshold.

For the considered offers in the financial evaluation only, the lowest price offer will receive 30 points. The other offers will receive points in relation to the lowest offer, based on the following formula: (Pn / Pl) * 30 where Pn is the financial offer being evaluated and Pl is the lowest financial offer received.

The award of the contract shall be made to the offeror whose offer has been evaluated and determined as:

a) Being responsive/compliant/acceptable, and

b) Having received the highest score based on the following weight of technical and financial criteria for solicitation as per the schedule below:

* Technical criteria weight: 70%

* Financial criteria weight: 30%