Background

Among the natural catastrophes, earthquakes has most severe consequences. At the same time, consideration must be given to each major earthquake that accompanied by numerous secondary consequences causing rather substantial damage.

The results of examination of analysis of consequences of destructive earthquakes show that preliminary conduction of a complex of organizational and engineering-and-technical actions as well as due management of the population at threat of earthquake and elimination of its consequences substantially reduce human victims and minimize a material loss. The known examples of assessments of enormous economic, social, demographic and ecological damage from earthquakes illustrate that in consideration of further state development prospects it is intolerable to ignore seismic danger.

In world practice, after each major earthquake it has been estimated repeatedly, that the cost of preventive measures for decrease in a seismic risk appears to be ten times less than the cost of elimination of consequences of such earthquake, whereas the effect from preventive measures may be considerably higher than the expenses borne.

Turkmenistan is one of the most earthquake-prone countries not only in the Central Asian region, but also in the world. Studies show that the Kopetdag mountain system that separates Turkmenistan and Iran has a high seismic activity that is confirmed, in particular, by the devastating earthquake of 1948 in Ashgabat with a magnitude of 7.3, which resulted in the death of about 80% of the local population and its neighborhood.

Due to their geographic location, territorial organization and rapid economic growth, the major cities of Turkmenistan, and in particular the capital city of Ashgabat, as well as towns Balkanabad and Turkmenbashi are located in a seismically hazardous zone, and are subject to earthquakes. In case of a catastrophe, the negative impact can spread to the whole country and even beyond it. The risk of a devastating earthquake has a potentially huge negative impact on the dynamics of the country's development.

The seismic hazard and risk assessment are a necessary condition for any subsequent social-and-economic planning and application of measures directed at preparation for earthquakes and elimination of their consequences.

In order to ensure the full implementation of Turkmenistan's development goals, the Government of Turkmenistan has begun developing a focused agenda that will allow the country to become more sustainable in the face of potential natural and man-made emergencies. To this end, the Government of Turkmenistan and UNDP have reached an agreement on strategic integration of efforts for capacity building in disaster risk management in the country.

Recognizing the importance of DRR, including preparing for emergencies and supporting joint efforts in this area, the Government of Turkmenistan decided to allocate appropriate financial resources for joint implementation with UNDP of tasks and activities in the above directions. In this regard, the project “Strengthening National Capacity for Seismic Risk Assessment, Prevention and Response to Potential Earthquakes” is aimed at elaboration and realization of a complex strategic approach for forecasting and assessing seismic hazards and risks in Turkmenistan, and will assist the Government of Turkmenistan in strengthening the capacity of authorities affiliated with the preparation and response to emergencies in general.

The project complies with the principles of the Sendai Framework Program on disaster risks reduction and will promote realization of all its priorities in Turkmenistan.

The objectives of the project correspond to the country's development priorities and strategic agreements between the Government of Turkmenistan and UNDP formulated in the cooperation program (2016-2020).

Pilot activity will be worked out on the territory of Ashgabat (or some of its regions) for the subsequent application of successful practices and approaches in similar work on the territory of other settlements of Turkmenistan subject to seismic risks.

The project is directed at achievement of 3 outcomes:

Outcome 1: Conducting a comprehensive assessment of seismic risks in Ashgabat;

Outcome 2: Integrated development of the Institute of seismology and physics of the atmosphere of the Academy of Sciences of Turkmenistan aimed at updating and modernizing the methodological, scientific and technical and human resources;

Outcome 3: Increasing the readiness level of the relevant agencies to respond to disasters caused by earthquakes.

During the implementation of the project, modern methods of information processing, earthquake risk assessment will be tested and implemented in accordance with international practice and standards by involving groups of international experts and leading organizations in the field of seismology.

The project realization plan of actions envisages performance of works in seismic vulnerability assessment for each of representative categories of Ashgabat buildings and all city territory as a whole with farther seismic risk assessment. 

Duties and Responsibilities

Within the project frameworks, UNDP envisages to employ the International Consultant for seismic vulnerability and seismic risk.

The objective of these Terms of Reference is:

- critical review of up-to-fate methods of seismic vulnerability and seismic risk assessment with development of respective recommendations applicable to conditions of Turkmenistan and territory of Ashgabat city;

- training of local personnel for performance of practical works in assessment of seismic vulnerability of buildings in the existing housing development;

- creation of specialized GIS;

- determination of seismic vulnerability, seismic risk assessment and mapping in the territory of Ashgabat city;

These Terms of Reference is performed within the frameworks of Outcomes 1 and 2 of the project.

Working under the general supervision of the UNDP Programme Analyst on Resilience, Climate and Energy, the Programme Management Officer, and direct guidance of the UNDP Project Specialist, the International Consultant for seismic vulnerability and seismic risk will be responsible for performance of the following responsibilities and tasks:

1. Performance of a critical review of up-to-date methods of assessment of seismic vulnerability of buildings and on its basis preparation and coordination of methodical recommendations for their application.

  • To perform information retrieval of published (both in Russian and in English) sources on seismic vulnerability of buildings and structures;
  • To perform a critical review of existing approaches and methods on assessment of seismic vulnerability of buildings and structures;
  • To prepare and coordinate methodical recommendations for assessment of seismic vulnerability of buildings applicable to conditions of Turkmenistan.

2.Performance of a critical review of existing methods and practices of seismic risk assessment and on its basis preparation and coordination of methodical recommendations for their application.

  • To perform information retrieval of up-to-date methods of seismic risk assessment on published sources and Internet resources (both in Russian and in English);
  • To conduct an analysis of published sources on seismic risk quantitative assessment for built-up territories;
  • To carry out a selection and substantiation of a technique of Ashgabat territory seismic risk assessment.

3. Conduction of a training course on assessment of vulnerability of buildings (with a trip to Ashgabat).

  • To prepare scientific-and-methodical materials (in a form of presentations) for conduction of training on seismic vulnerability of buildings;
  • To conduct a training course on seismic vulnerability in Ashgabat, including scientific-theoretical and practical training.

4. Creation of specialized GIS for performance of works in assessment and mapping of seismic hazard and risk in the territory of Ashgabat city

  • General management and coordination of works in creation of GIS for assessment and mapping of seismic risk on Ashgabat territory;

  • Creation of algorithm and program for generation of scenarios of possible earthquakes and spatial estimation of damages and damage on the city territory in real time mode in GIS.

5. Determination of seismic vulnerability for each of representative categories of buildings in Ashgabat.

  • To perform categorization of existing types of buildings in Ashgabat housing development;
  • To determine seismic vulnerability of representative types of buildings (as a probable level of damages depending on a level of seismic impacts);
  • For each of representative categories of Ashgabat buildings to construct seismic vulnerability functions necessary for seismic risk assessments.

6. Ashgabat territory seismic risk assessment (with a trip to Ashgabat).

  • Seismic risk assessment, development of the Ashgabat territory seismic risk map in accordance with the seismic micro-zoning map;
  • Development of scenarios of possible destructive earthquakes of various magnitudes in the territory of Ashgabat city and assessment of their consequences;
  • Assessment of a probable social-and-economic damage from earthquakes on the basis of seismic risk estimations.

 

Expected Outcomes:

All outcomes shall be presented in a form of text report in Russian (attaching graphic materials) and sent to the UNDP Country Office (in PDF format). It is expected that the International Consultant will achieve the following:

Outcome I:

  1. The information retrieval of published sources on assessment of seismic vulnerability of buildings and structures is performed;
  2. The critical review of existing approaches and methods on assessment of seismic vulnerability of buildings and structures is performed;
  3. Methodical recommendations for assessment of seismic vulnerability of buildings applicable to conditions of Turkmenistan are prepared and coordinated.

The preliminary schedule of performance of works as per Outcome I: November-December 2019

Payment: 8% of the Contract total amount.

Outcome II:

  1. The information retrieval of up-to-date methods on seismic risk assessment in published sources and Internet resources (both in Russian and in English) is performed;
  2. The analysis of published sources on seismic risk quantitative assessment for built-up territories is performed;
  3. The selection and substantiation of a technique of seismic risk assessment for Ashgabat territory is performed.

The preliminary schedule of performance of works as per Outcome II: January – February 2020.

Payment: 8% of the Contract total amount.

Outcome III:

  1. Scientific-methodical materials (in a form of presentations) are prepared for conducting of the training on seismic vulnerability of buildings;
  2. A training course on Ashgabat seismic vulnerability, including scientific-theoretical and practical studies is performed.

The preliminary schedule of performance of works as per Outcome III: February – June 2020.

Payment 14% of the Contract total amount.

Outcome IV:

  1. The general management and coordination of works in creation of GIS for assessment and mapping of seismic risk in the territory of Ashgabat city is carried out;
  2. The algorithm and programs for generation of scenarios of possible earthquakes and spatial estimation of damages and damage on the city territory in a real time mode in GIS are created.

The preliminary schedule of performance of works as per Outcome IV: March – October 2020.

Payment: 20% of the Contract total amount.

Outcome V:

  1. The categorization of existing types of buildings in Ashgabat housing development is carried out;
  2. For each of representative categories of buildings their seismic vulnerability is determined;
  3. For each of representative categories of Ashgabat buildings the seismic vulnerability functions necessary for estimation of seismic risk are constructed.

The prelinary schedule of performance of works as per Outcome V: May – October 2020.

Payment: 25% of the Contract total amount.

Outcome VI:

  1. The seismic risk assessment is performed; the Ashgabat territory seismic risk map is developed in accordance with the sumac micro-zoning map;
  2. Scenarios of possible destructive earthquakes of various magnitudes in the territory of Ashgabat city are developed and their consequences are assessed;
  3. The assessment of a probable social-and-economic damage from earthquakes on the basis of a seismic risk assessment is performed.

The preliminary schedule of performance of works as per Outcome VI: July – December 2020.

Payment: 25% of the Contract total amount.

Payment Conditions

Payment will be made in six stages (by parts) after performance of respective sections of the task, upon provision of the reports and certification given by the UNDP Programme Analyst on Resilience, Climate and Energy.

Organizational Structure

The International Consultant for seismic vulnerability will work independently contacting, if necessary, with the UNDP Project Team Expert, who will regularly assess the outcomes of the Consultant work including on timeliness of performance of tasks and their quality. For performance of works under outcomes I, II, V, VI attraction of the National Consultant for seismic stability of Ashgabat buildings is expected.

Duration of Performance of Terms of Reference

The performance of these Terms of Reference is provided on a short-term and part-time basis as well as on the basis of achievement of outcomes. The expected duration of work for these Terms of Reference is about 13 months, preliminary from November 2019 to 31 December 2020.

Any delays in performance of these Terms of Reference caused by organizational reasons or necessity of obtaining of respective authorizations and accesses to information sources shall be discussed with the UNDP Programme Analyst/ UNDP Project Specialist for the purpose of undertaking appropriate actions for their solving.

Competencies

  • Knowledge of estimate-theoretical bases of seismic vulnerability and seismic risk assessment (mandatory);
  • Possession of up-to-date methods of engineering examination of existing buildings and structures for the purpose of assessment of their actual seismic stability (mandatory);
  • Possession of data processing methods and programs for operational modal analysis (desirable);
  • Possession of methods and programs of estimation of buildings for seismic stability including ability to build damageability and vulnerability function graphs (mandatory);
  • Possession of GIS-technologies (ArcGIS) and tools (including programming for GIS) for seismic risk estimations and mapping for built-up territories (mandatory);
  • Ability to formulate and present professionally the outcomes of works performed (mandatory).

Required Skills and Experience

Education

  • Advanced degree (Master or equivalent) in the field of engineering science, preferably engineering-construction with specialization in building structures and seismic stability of structures;
  • Availability of a scientific degree with specialization in building structures or in building mechanics is considered as strong asset.

Professional Experience

  • Practical experience (not less than 15 years) of work in seismic vulnerability and seismic risk assessment;
  • Experience in scientific work in the field of seismic engineering and seismic building construction;
  • Practical experience in engineering examination of buildings and structures for the purpose of assessment of their actual seismic stability;
  • Practical experience in seismic risk mapping for built-up territories with GIS use;
  • Availability of publications on seismic vulnerability and seismic risk (please attach the list of publications to CV);
  • Experience in conducting the trainings on seismic vulnerability and seismic risk assessment;
  • International experience in the projects related to seismic vulnerability and seismic risk assessment, including the experience in the countries of the Central-Asian region;
  • Language Requirements

  • Fluency in Russian and English languages.

 

Submission of Documents:

The interested candidates shall provide the below-listed documents (information) to show their qualification:

  • The applicant’s letter to UNDP confirming interest and readiness of the Individual Consultant for performance of these Terms of Reference representing the financial proposal of the Consultant. The financial proposal shall include payment of consultancy services, administrative expenses (if necessary), transport expenses and/or any other expenses, which candidates consider necessary for performance of these Terms of Reference. The financial proposal shall specify the total amount of an expected fee in a foreign currency (US Dollars) for a total scope of work. The sample of  such letter under the name “Letter of Confirmation of Interest and Availability in English” may be find in a reference ONLY:
  •  http://www.tm.undp.org/content/turkmenistan/en/home/procurement.html

THE CANDIDATES WHO WILL NOT PROVIDE THE FINANCIAL PROPOSAL WOULD BE DISQUALIFIED;

  • Methodology specifying phases, tasks, methods, techniques, timetables, resources, accessibility and tools applied for successful performance of these Terms of Reference;
  • Resume (Curriculum Vitae) including a respective work experience and a list of publications corresponding to the subject of these Terms of Reference.

Evaluation of Proposals:

The Consultant selection will be conducted by a method of combined evaluation using the following criteria:

1) Technical part of the proposal -70%:

  • Education - 25 points
  • Professional experience in respective field (this will include the practical experience, international experience and availability of publications) - 55 points
  • Language skills – 10 points
  • Methodology - 10 points

2) Financial part of the proposal - 30%

Additional Requirements for the Recommended Candidate

The recommended contractors at the age of 65 years old and elder and in case if a working trip is required shall undergo a full medical examination including X-ray and obtain the medical authorization from the UN approved doctor prior to accept his assignment. The medical examination shall be approved by the UN doctor and cost covered by the Consultant.

Appendices:

General Conditions of the Contract for provision of services by individual contractors may  be found in a reference http://www.tm.undp.org/content/turkmenistan/en/home/operations/procurement/