Background

In line with the Arab region’s development priorities and the strategies elaborated at the country level and by regional institutions, and guided by the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the UNDP Strategic Plan 2018-2021, the UNDP Regional Bureau for Arab States (RBAS) developed the regional programme document (RPD) for Arab States (2018-2021). As per UNDP regional distribution, the Arab states region includes 20 of the 22 countries belonging to the League of Arab States.

Within these frameworks, the regional programme was designed to respond to a regional context marked by increasing conflict, vulnerability, and exclusion in several countries, partially compensated by development gains, and a relative stability in others. To respond to the diversity of development settings and challenges in the Arab region, the regional programme was articulated in two outcomes derived from the UNDP Strategic Plan 2018-2021.

• Outcome 1: Accelerate the structural transformation of productive capacities in a sustainable and inclusive manner (related to Strategic Plan Outcome 2: accelerate structural transformations for sustainable development);
• Outcome 2: Strengthen institutions to  promote inclusive participation, prevent conflict and build peaceful societies (related to Strategic Plan Outcome 3: strengthen resilience to shocks and crises).

In line with the Evaluation Plan, UNDP-RBAS is commissioning an Outcome Evaluation to assess the impact of UNDP-RBAS’ interventions focused on the root causes of conflict and governance deficits, designed to contribute to Outcome 2. The evaluation shall cover the 2018-2021 programme cycle.

Because of the ongoing volatility, risk-informed approaches were applied to formulate interventions aimed at increasing the capabilities of communities, institutions and stakeholders to anticipate and respond to shocks.

The regional programme introduced a forward-looking perspective on how governments and non-governmental actors can cooperate to counteract fragilities while promoting democratic reforms and fostering resilience. The evaluation is intended to provide forward looking recommendations to the new regional programme cycle (2022-2025).

 BRIEF REGIONAL CONTEXT/BACKGROUND

The Arab region is home to high, middle, and low-income countries, facing different sets of development challenges and diversely affected by conflict and transition dynamics. Besides each country specificity, some regional trends can be observed:

• Mounting economic challenges and uncertainty: The region GDP growth was at 1.5 % in 2019, less than in 2018 (2.1%) and one of the lowest level since the 0.4% in 2008.1 This has negatively affected an already challenging job market, with adult and youth unemployment rates among the highest in the world at 10% and 27%, respectively2.
• Conflict, Migration and Displacement: The Arab region has continued to experience severe conflicts and protracted crises challenging development gains, and bringing about great human suffering, massive displacement, and damage to infrastructure and services. Since 2012, conflict-affected countries like Libya, Syria, and  Yemen  have experienced  unprecedented  declines in  their Human Development Index.3 Of the 60 million displaced people worldwide, close to 40% originate from the Arab region, mainly Syria and Palestine.4
• Persistent governance deficit: Despite reforms in some countries, international perception surveys confirm a prevalence of corruption and governance deficits in terms of rule of law, access to justice, and representation. According to the Arab Barometer, 45.5% of those surveyed expressed distrust of the courts and the legal system.5 This led to widespread popular discontent, as exemplified in 2019 by social and political upheavals in Sudan, Iraq, Tunisia and Lebanon in protest against deteriorating living conditions and rising corruption.
• Gender inequality: Despite achievements in terms of closing the gender gap in health and education, numerous other obstacles still need to be tackled. Female labour force participation rate continues to be the lowest globally, at 18.4% and female unemployment in the Arab countries is at 15.6 percent – three times higher than the world average.6 In addition, of all regions in the Global Gender Gap Index, the Arab region has the lowest score (61.1%) hosting seven of the 10 countries with the largest gender gaps in the world, including Iraq and Yemen, which are, respectively, penultimate and last in the ranking of 153 countries.7
• Growing resource insecurity and Climate Change: Development trajectories in the region are further affected by climate change and the increasing fragility of natural resources. Arab countries have access to only 1% of the global water resources, while hosting 5% of the world population.8 Despite scaling-up their interest in using renewable energy sources, especially wind and solar power generation, as of 2015, Arab countries have continued to rely heavily on fossil fuel, where electricity production from oil and gas account for 94% of total production, while only 0.5% stem from renewable sources (wind and solar) and 3% from hydro sources.9

These challenges have been exacerbated by the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has exposed serious fault lines and vulnerabilities in societies, institutions and economies in the region. Growing number of cases in the region are cause for concern, especially in light of fragmented health care in many countries. This led to policy measures including lockdown of businesses and activities and movement restrictions in many countries in the region in an effort to curb the spread of the virus, with consequent economic fallout. Due to COVID-19, the Middle East and North Africa region’s economy is expected to contract by 3.5 percent.10 Countries in the region have uneven capacities to offer stimulus packages, limited by a serious drop in revenues from tourism, remittances, trade and production, exacerbated in oil exporting countries by the drop in oil prices11. The heaviest burden of the pandemic falls on vulnerable groups. Women are likely to suffer significant consequences of the pandemic and migrants, accounting for 40% of all workers in the region, are exposed to limited access to services, job losses and reduced ability to return to their countries of origin.12 In addition, countries and communities caught up in conflicts, and especially those experiencing forced displacement, are facing additional challenges in accessing humanitarian relief and health care.

In addition to the above, the economic and political crisis in Lebanon, that was already aggravated by the fallouts of the pandemic, has been coupled with the destruction brought about by a deadly explosion at the Beirut port. The blast struck the Lebanese capital in the midst of a crippling financial and economic crisis. Nearly 180 people were killed, 300,000 displaced and more than 6,000 injured in the blast, which destroyed most of Beirut’s port and surrounding neighborhoods. According to the UN Office for the Coordination and Humanitarian Affairs (UN- OCHA), the explosions damaged six hospitals, 20 health clinics and 120 schools. An appeal was launched on 14 August by the United Nations and aid partners to help the Lebanese people move from immediate lifesaving relief towards reconstruction and recovery, including repair of the shattered economy in the longer term. The appeal targets four areas: food security, health, shelter and education.13

1 World Bank national accounts data. Note: the regional aggregates include Mauritania and Comoros.

2 World Bank Group, 2019, Unemployment, youth total (% of total labor force ages 15-24) (modeled ILO estimate), International Labour Organization, ILOSTAT database. Data retrieved in June 21, 2020.  https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.UEM.1524.ZS?end=2019&start=2019&view=bar

3 Human Development Report data: http://www.hdr.undp.org/en/data

4 Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2017,” United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), 2018,   http://www.unhcr.org/5b27be547.pdf.

5 Arab Barometer: https://www.arabbarometer.org/survey-data/data-downloads/. Note, the Arab Barometer (wave V) sample consists of 26,721 respondents in 12 Arab countries.

6 ILO World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2019

7 World Economic Forum, Global Gender Gap report 2020 www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GGGR_2020.pdf. Note the regional average includes Israel.

8 3RD ARAB WATER FORUM “Together towards a Secure Arab Water” Final report, 2014.  http://arabwatercouncil.org/3rdAWF/files/report.pdf

9 IEA Statistics.

10 International Monetary Fund, Libya not included due to significant outlie in GDP fluctuation (-58.7)   https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD .

11 UN 2019, Policy Brief: The Impact of COVID-19 on the Arab Region An Opportunity to Build Back Better  https://www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/sg_policy_brief_covid-19_and_arab_states_english_version_july_2020.pdf   12 Ibid.

13 https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/08/1070242

14 Excluding the Gender Justice and the Law initiative.

15 Idem

Duties and Responsibilities

The purpose of this Outcome Evaluation is to capture and demonstrate evaluative evidence of UNDP-RBAS’ contributions towards strengthening institutions to promote inclusive participation, prevent conflict and build peaceful societies in the Arab region, as articulated in Outcome 2 of the Regional programme document for Arab States (2018-2021).

As the regional programme is in its third year of implementation, the evaluation exercise will also be forward- looking, aimed at informing and improving the next UNDP-RBAS Regional programme document that will cover the period 2022-2025.

The evaluation findings and conclusions must be based on concrete and credible evidence that will support UNDP’s strategic thinking for its new programme cycle, specifically in determining its strategic priorities in supporting regional institutions and national governments to promote inclusive participation, prevent conflict and build peaceful societies in the Arab Region.

The evaluation will assess achievements made to contribute to outcome 2, factors affecting the outcome, and related partnership strategies. It will evaluate processes, approaches and strategies of UNDP-RBAS’ development interventions in the areas of inclusive participation, conflict prevention and peacebuilding. The evaluation will also look at the impact and relevance of knowledge generated while implementing initiatives in those areas. It will also take into consideration facets of mainstreaming gender through the interventions, and the overall impact of the Programme on gender equality.

The proposed evaluation will assess the following indicative outputs falling under outcome 216 as stated in RPD 2018 – 2021. The outputs respond to the UNDP Strategic Plan 2018-2021 “signature solutions”, integrated responses to development challenges that can be combined and configured to respond to diverse development settings. The Plan identifies six signature solutions framed around i) keeping people out of poverty, ii) strengthen effective, inclusive and accountable governance, iii) enhance national prevention and recovery capacities for resilient societies, iv) promote nature-based solutions for a sustainable planet; v) close the energy gap, and vi) strengthen gender equality and the empowerment of women and girls. Through the articulation of its outputs, the regional programme intends to contribute to Outcome 2 through three out of the six signature solutions, as well as by promoting knowledge platforms, a critical delivery mechanism identified in the UNDP Strategic Plan 2018-2021.

OUTCOME 2: Strengthen institutions to promote inclusive participation, prevent conflict and build peaceful societies

Worth noting that due to COVID-19, the projects have redirected their course of implementation using methods that do not require travelling or physical meetings. Since the outbreak of the pandemic, UNDP did not engage in any activity that would have placed the staff and stakeholders at risk of being infected by the virus. Hence, team meetings, official events and consultations with stakeholders have been held virtually.

PROJECTS DIRECTLY LINKED TO THE OUTCOME

UNDP-RBAS implements projects specifically designed to contribute to outcome 2, as well as other initiatives that contribute to both Regional Programme outcomes.

PROJECTS AND INITIATIVES THAT DIRECTLY CONTRIBUTE TO OUTCOME 2:

GOVERNANCE SIGNATURE SOLUTION

Anti-Corruption Initiative in the Arab Countries, ACIAC (closed in 2019): ACIAC helped partners to develop national capacities to enhance transparency and accountability across different sectors and stakeholders in support of implementing the United Nations Convention against Corruption. Initially focused on establishing a regional network of critical integrity mechanisms and institutions, including anti-corruption commissions, the project expanded to focus on preventing corruption in key sectors that deliver public services and generate state revenues using innovative methodologies. ACIAC worked with UNDP Country Offices in the Arab States to achieve three outputs:

1. National capacities enhanced to draft, implement and monitor laws that prevent and combat corruption;
2. Specific initiatives supported to design, advocate and integrate measures that strengthen transparency and accountability in key vulnerable sectors; and
3. Participatory platforms fostered to promote, inform and review strategies that link anti-corruption to sustainable development.

KOICA Anti-Corruption Initiative in the Arab Countries, ACIAC (2019-2023): The project evolved into a new phase prioritizing seven countries (Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Palestine and Tunisia). The overall goal is to enable institutions and systems to address awareness, prevention and enforcement of anti- corruption measures to maximize availability of resources for poverty eradication and contribute to the establishment of inclusive and effective governance in line with SDG 16. The project aims to achieve three main outputs:

1. Multi-country cooperation enhanced to promote the effective and inclusive implementation of the UN Convention against Corruption;
2. Corruption risk management processes institutionalized in key vulnerable sectors across region; and

c)   Arab Anti-Corruption and Integrity Network supported to transform into the region’s leading sustainable organization promoting SDG 16.

In the wake of COVID-19, mainstreaming anti-corruption practices and related risk management approaches in the health sector will be expanded to other sectors, wherever trust in institutions plays a pivotal role, as recovery measures develop.

Promoting Social Cohesion in the Arab region, PSCAR (2015-2019): The project aimed at promoting social cohesion, with a focus on equal citizenship, trust among citizens as well as between citizen and state; and pluralistic acceptance of the other, of different faiths, confessions, ethnic backgrounds, and political ideologies. Governments, civil society actors, journalists and media experts, religious leaders and institutions were the main stakeholders of the project. PSCAR aimed at achieving the following main outputs:

1. Regional knowledge and advocacy platforms to promote social cohesion facilitated and supported;
2. Governments and civil society actors to establish measures to advance social cohesion between citizen and state and restore legitimacy and trust in state supported;

c)   Tolerance,  respect  for  diversity  and  higher  social  cohesion  amongst  different  social  groups promoted.

Diversity Advancement in the Arab Region (DAAR) (2019): The Diversity Advancement in the Arab Region (DAAR) initiative evolved from the above-mentioned project on social cohesion. The main aim was to shed light on the diversity spread across the Arab countries in general, and on the management of this diversity. It aimed at restoring diversity at the social, political and economic levels by investing in: supporting policy-oriented research; designing tools and methodologies; opening up knowledge exchange space and networking; advising on legislation and policies that are conducive to advancing the governance of diversity. Key stakeholders included COs and experts from and beyond the region. The main output of this initiation phase is:

1. Regional project on Diversity Advancement defined and developed.

Impact measurement capacity on prevention of violent extremism, PVE (2018-2019): The Preventing Violent Extremism regional component aimed at supporting UNDP country offices, national counterparts and civil society actors to prevent violent extremism by addressing its drivers and build national capacities, with a focus on Jordan. The project has invested in establishing and developing M&E frameworks for PVE interventions in the Arab region. Further, it provided platforms for regional exchanges and experience sharing among experts, practitioners, governments and civil society representatives. The main output sought were:

1. Improved capacities (knowledge and skills) of civil society, government and UN actors to monitor and evaluate impact of PVE projects, programmes and strategies, including on women;
2. Increased awareness by civil society, government and UN actors of available resources and strategies to prevent violent extremism and understanding of PVE dynamics in their context, including the gendered impact.

Youth Leadership Programme, YLP (2018-June 2020): It was launched as an stand-alone initiative in 2018 to build a regional dynamic network, working at the intersection of youth, innovation and sustainable development. Through  6 editions17,the project has provided  leadership  training  to  over 20,000 youth participants and 80 youth-serving organizations in 18 countries in the Arab region and supported the design of around 7,000 projects that address local development challenges. The initiative’s outputs were:

1. Youth and partner networks expanded and mechanisms institutionalized to create an environment for acceleration of youth innovation and SDGs;
2. Youth Empowerment and Engagement Project developed with identified partners and funding;
3. Youth leaders’ capacity strengthened, and their knowledge enhanced;

Youth Engagement and Empowerment Project, YEEP (July 2020-2021): Opportunities, challenges, gaps and lessons learned derived from the YLP have been observed and assessed paving the way for the development of a more holistic Youth Project that aims to build on the successes of the previous years’ achievements while lending itself to more impact and support to young people in the Arab Region. This new vision will be informed through a year-long process of consultation within the RBAS, UNDP country offices, youth, youth serving partner organizations, the private sector and other partners including incubators and academia. The outputs sought are the same mentioned under YLP.

Other initiatives that also contribute to this outcome are:

Arab Youth Arts and Music Initiative, AYAMI (2019-2020): Among the youth initiatives, AYAMI has been conceived with the overall objective to raise awareness on the 2030 Agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) among children and youth, and to prepare them for being the custodians of sustainable development. The initiative places art and music at its core, as powerful tools to communicate messages and engage with people and communities. Activities have been adjusted to respond to the impact of COVID-19 on youth, putting emphasis on the importance of achieving the SDGs for a safer and better future. The outputs sought are:

1. SDGs multimedia product developed;
2. Communication strategy implemented to launch, promote and disseminate the multimedia product in the Arab region and beyond;
3. Awareness campaign on COVID-19 raised and promoted online and offline across the Arab Region;
4. Regional project on Arab Youth Art and Music defined and developed;

Regional Electoral Support Project for Middle East and North Africa (Phase II 2018 – 2021): In coordination with the Regional Programme and contributing to Outcome 2 of the RPD, the overall aim of this global project is to support and advocate for greater social and political voice and participation in democratic processes, particularly of women and youth. The project supports entities and initiatives that promote democratic institutions, raise awareness and knowledge on electoral processes and practices, and strengthen regional cooperation among electoral stakeholders, establishing and enhancing capacities of key actors, and reinforcing inclusive political participation. Phase II is designed around four region-specific outputs:

1. Regional electoral capacity and knowledge enhanced;
2. Profession of electoral administration strengthened through regional cooperation;
3. Civic and political participation of women enhanced;

d)  Role of youth in the electoral cycle promoted.

In addition to the above, between 2018 and 2019 some preliminary work has been carried out in collaboration with the Islamic Development Bank (IsDB) to develop the initiative "Parliaments for Agenda 2030– Empowering parliamentarians to implement the Sustainable Development Goals", designing pilot projects in Somalia, Tunisia and Jordan in order to support parliaments, through their legislative, oversight and representation functions, to fully play their role in achieving the SDGs. These initiatives are now country-led. In the same framework, UNDP, ESCWA and IsDB, in collaboration with the IPU, organized the second edition of the Arab Region Parliamentary Forum on the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, providing a platform for parliamentarians from the region to debate, reflect and exchange experiences and best practices.

RESILIENCE SIGNATURE SOLUTION

Strengthening the capability in the League of Arab States Secretariat and its Member States to provide early warning and effective responses to impending regional crises, conflicts and post conflict situations (2016-2019): To support the League of Arab States (LAS) to effectively tackle and manage crises arising in the region, the project -a partnership among UNDP, the European Union and LAS- aimed to strengthen LAS institutional and operational capacities to anticipate, analyse, prevent, and respond to crises in the region, including through the establishment of dedicated task forces. The main stakeholders of the projects were LAS staff and Members States officials, the EU, and relevant regional/international bodies. The main outputs sought were:

1. CMD   restructured   and   Phase   1   achievements   maintained   and   extended   to   relevant   LAS sectors/departments and Member States.
2. The process of establishing an Arab Cooperation Framework facilitated.
3. Taskforces are established by League of Arab States and become active to support an Arab Cooperation Framework on Early Warning and Crisis Response.
4. Task force members are given an in-depth training of trainers (ToT) program in (1) Conflict and (2) Peace and Security.
5. The LAS/Member States and the EU (in the framework of the EU-LAS Strategic Dialogue), and other regional/international bodies deepen their policy dialogue and increase coordination on crisis related issues of mutual interest.
6. Cross-Cutting Result: Focus on Gender.

Fostering Capacities in the Arab States for Sustaining Peace and Preventing Conflict (2019-2021): Supported by the Government of Japan (GoJ), UNDP is working towards building and sustaining peace and stability in the Arab States region through developing the capacity, frameworks and mechanisms of the League of Arab States (LAS). This project aims to provide timely support to the enhancement of LAS’ role in initiating and facilitating the thinking of new modalities for cooperation among its member states, in order to accelerate the achievement of the SDGs, including those under conflict or post-conflict setting. The three key intended outputs are:

1. LAS Institutional capacity strengthened, and the relevant technical knowledge and skills of staff enhanced;
2. Platform for strategic dialogue between LAS and its member states and GoJ enhanced and sustained toward expanded Arab-Japan-UNDP cooperation; and
3. Support for the Second Japan-Arab Political Dialogue provided.

Negotiations were held with GoJ and LAS to define a new timeline of the activities which have been disrupted by the COVID-19 crisis. Specifically, the infrastructure works under Output 1 and the roundtables under Output 2 through the organization of virtual roundtables.

Strengthening the Long-Term Resilience of Subnational Authorities in countries affected by the Syrian and Iraqi Crises (2019-2021): The municipal resilience programme in response to the Syria crisis is a joint UNDP/UN-Habitat action intervening in two of the countries affected by the impact of the Syria crisis, Lebanon and Iraq. The aim of this multi-country initiative is to improve the resilience of host and refugee populations in communities impacted by the Syrian crisis, through strengthened local multi-level governance systems and improved access to basic services, affordable housing and income. The project is funded by the European Union Trust Fund “Madad”. Each country component has specific outputs, which fall under the 3 main outcomes of the project:

1. Subnational authorities have enhanced capacities to engage in holistic, area-based planning and consider different scenarios that respond to the needs of host, refugee and IDP populations.
2. Service delivery is increasingly responsive and generates more significant social stability outcomes based on the needs of the host, refugee, and IDP populations.
3. Subnational authorities are empowered to facilitate local economic development (LED) and have better access to municipal investment that benefits the extension of safe public services and economic opportunities for the host, refugee, and IDP populations.

GENDER SIGNATURE SOLUTION

Fostering Inclusive Participation and Effective Contribution of Women in the Public Sphere, Mosharaka (2014-2018): The project aimed to address the deficits in the public participation and citizenship rights of women in the Arab Region, especially in transition, fragile and post conflict countries. The main partners and stakeholders involved were UN Women, Union for the Mediterranean, Center of Arab Women for Training and Research (CAWTAR), the Arab Women Organization (AWO) and the League of Arab States (LAS), CSOs, governments and regional entities working on gender and women’s empowerment. The project had two main outputs:

1. Regional and national actors and institutions to establish measures to advance gender equality, and women’s political, social and economic participation supported
2. Women peace and security frameworks to reinforce social cohesion and promote women’s equal access to political and economic opportunities in early recovery and post crisis settings established

Gender Justice & the Law (2018-2019): Building on assessments on the law and legal practices on women’s right an protection conducted in 20 countries across the region, UNDP worked with its sister Agencies at regional level (UNFPA, UN Women and UN-ESCWA) to sustain thought leadership and partnerships on Gender Justice & the Law providing the most updated laws and policies, analysis and advocacy messages to promote changes on gender equality before the law and its implementation. The initiative also provided the evidence base to practitioners, governments, policy makers, women machineries and civil society organization for policy debate and programmatic interventions to reverse gender inequalities in the law and enhance the delivery of justice to women in the region. The main output of the initiative was:

1. Thought leadership and partnerships on Gender Justice & the Law in the Arab region created and sustained.

Ensuring Innovative Women’s Participation in Political and Economic Decision-Making in Post- Conflict Situations (2020): Given the prevalence of post-conflict challenges in the Arab region, UNDP in the Arab States will lead a global initiative, working with UNDP regional offices around the world, using innovative practices to source and highlight emerging solutions that enable women’s economic and political participation. Key stakeholders of the initiative will be grassroots women’s organizations, academics, private and public sectors with a specific focus on those whose voices have not been heard in similar fora. This initiative with its initiation phase aims at achieving the following outputs:

1. Key areas of hitherto unexplored approaches to women’s engagement in post conflict economic and political decision highlighted;
2. Post-conflict engagement of women peacebuilders supported through the formulation and advocacy of a set of recommendations;

c)   UNDP  programming  in  crisis  contexts  in  RBAS  region  improved  by  the  implementation  of  the recommendations from the consultation process.

KNOWLEDGE PLATFORMS

Arab Development Portal, ADP: Through Phase III (2016-2018) and Phase IV (2019-2021), the initiative in partnership with the Coordination Group of Arab National and Regional Development Institutions (CG) aims to create a knowledge platform which promotes timely and high-quality knowledge on key development topics in the Arab region. With advanced tools for data browsing, extraction, and visualization, the portal offers the latest available data on 14 topics and includes around 6,500 indicators. The ADP has established the first regional SDG Tracking tool which not only monitors countries’ progress against the official 244 SDGs indicators, but also considers country-specific indicators identified under the 2030 national strategies.

In addition, the ADP works closely with national statistical offices (NSOs) to improve their capacity to produce, manage and disseminate data. The main project’s outputs are:

1. Users’ access to high-quality data and information on development topics in the Arab region enhanced;

b)  Data users and producers’ capacity strengthened.

Activities during COVID-19 continue entailing the maintenance of the Portal and production of infographics and social media content on the socio-economic effect of the pandemic.

Arab Human Development Report (AHDR): This flagship series of reports championed the creation and dissemination of people-centred development knowledge and ideas throughout the region. The six reports published since 2002 have been vital advocacy instruments to induce and facilitate development debate in the region and centred around the following themes: opportunities (2002), knowledge (2003), freedom (2004), gender (2005), human security (2009), youth (2016). A research paper, produced in 2019, analysed how the full realization of citizenship in the Arab countries is undermined by forces of exclusion such as discrimination, geography, socio-economic status, unaccountable governance, and shocks and fragilities. The main project output is:

1. Arab Human Development Report produced.

In lieu of publishing a traditional full-fledged AHDR, the project has pivoted to a more agile strategy given the incertitude created by COVID-19, which favours shorter papers around thematic research as well as other by-products such as blogs, etc. to help inform UNDP’s programmatic offer as it continues to support countries in the region, to respond and recover from the impact of COVID-19.

Time Frame: The overall achievements of the key projects contributing directly to the outcome will be evaluated since the start of the current RPD (January 2018) until November 2020. Evaluation of relevant contribution and support provided to UNDP Country Offices under this outcome will also be conducted.

Geographical coverage: this evaluation will cover the Arab region as defined by UNDP (see background and context section), with a focus on countries the relevant regional projects are operating.

Target groups and stakeholders: Target groups and stakeholders include, but are not limited to, relevant regional institutions, government agencies and entities, civil-society organizations and research institutions, other UN agencies, donors, and the private sector, where applicable.

Target Audience: UNDP, the project beneficiaries and stakeholders, other UN agencies, donors and other relevant users of the report.

EVALUATION CRITERIA AND KEY GUIDING QUESTIONS

The outcome evaluation must provide evidence-based information that is credible, reliable and useful. It must give the intended users the information needed in order to make decisions, take action and add to knowledge. Hence, the analysis will seek to answer, at a minimum but not limited to, the following questions grouped according to the four OECD-DAC evaluation criteria: (a) relevance; (b) effectiveness; (c) efficiency; and (d) sustainability.

Relevance:

• To what extent does the intended outcome and associated outputs address regional priorities?, and to what extent are these aligned with UNDP’s mandate?
• Are the initiatives developed to contribute to this outcome addressing the needs and requirements of the identified target groups?
• To what extent is UNDP support relevant to the achievement of the SDGs in the region?
• To what extent did UNDP adopt gender-sensitive, human rights-based and conflict-sensitive approaches?
• To  what  extent  is  the  theory  of  change  presented  in  the  regional  programme  still  relevant  and appropriate to formulate and justify initiatives in this area?
• To what extent is UNDP engagement with partners and stakeholders a reflection of strategic considerations, including the role of UNDP in the specific regional development context and its comparative advantage?
• To what extent was the method of delivery selected by UNDP appropriate to the development context?

Effectiveness:

• To what extent has progress been made towards outcome 2 achievement? What has been the UNDP contribution to the observed change?
• Did the projects at least set dynamic changes and processes that move towards the long-term outcomes?
• How has delivery of the regional programme outputs been addressed in light of the challenges imposed by COVID-19?
• What has been the contribution of partners and other organizations to the outcome, and how effective have UNDP partnerships been in contributing to achieving the outcome?
• What have been the key results and changes attained? How has delivery of regional programme outputs led to outcome-level progress?
• Have  there  been  any  unexpected  outcome-level  results?  Have  outputs  produced  unexpected externalities which proved beneficial or detrimental towards the outcome?
• How have UNDP regional initiatives in this area complemented and supported UNDP work at the country office level?
• To what extent have the achieved results benefited women and men equally?
• To what extent have identified target groups benefited?
• What factors have contributed to achieving or not achieving the intended outcome?
• What additional factors should be considered to enhance effectiveness?
• To what extent did UNDP engage or coordinate with stakeholders, implementing partners, other United Nations agencies, as well as regional and national counterparts to maximize the contribution to outcome- level results?

Efficiency:

• To what extent have the programme or project outputs resulted from economic use of resources?
• To what extent were quality regional programme outputs delivered on time?
• How did the projects address the challenges faced by COVID-19 in the course of implementation?
• To what extent did the project adjustments in light of the disruption to major activities imposed by COVID-19 (including envisaged budget implications) yield to the expected results?
• To what extent were partnership modalities conducive to the delivery of regional programme outputs?
• To what extent did monitoring systems provide management with a stream of data that allowed it to learn and adjust implementation accordingly?
• To what extent did UNDP promote gender equality, the empowerment of women, human rights and human development in the delivery of the corresponding outputs?
• To what extent have UNDP practices, policies, processes and decision-making capabilities affected the achievement of outcome 2?
• To what extent have triangular and South-South cooperation and knowledge management contributed to the results attained?
• Which programme areas or approaches are the most relevant and strategic for UNDP to scale up and consider going forward?

Sustainability:

• To what extent do partners have the institutional capacities, including sustainability strategies, in place to sustain the outcome-level results?
• To what extent are policy and regulatory frameworks in place that will support the continuation of benefits?
• To what extent have partners committed to providing continuing support (financial, staff, aspirational, etc.)?
• To what extent do mechanisms, procedures and policies exist to carry forward the results attained on gender equality, empowerment of women, human rights and human development by primary stakeholders? How have these been affected by COVID-19?
• What is the level of capacity and commitment from the stakeholders to ensure sustainability of the results achieved?
• What could be done to strengthen sustainability?

METHODOLOGY

The evaluation will be carried out by an independent international evaluator and will  engage  a  broad  range of key stakeholders and beneficiaries, including representatives or regional organisations, government officials, donors, civil society organizations , which were involved in programme delivery or received advisory support, as well as UNDP staff. The evaluation is expected to take a “theory of change’’ (TOC) approach to determining causal links between the interventions that UNDP- RBAS supported and the observed progress against this outcome, starting with the theory of change prepared during the project design phase.

The evidence gathering will closely track the RRF for this outcome. Evidence obtained and used to assess the results of UNDP support should be gathered from a variety of sources, including data on indicators’ achievement, existing reports, stakeholder interviews, focus groups, or surveys as appropriate. While interviews are a key instrument, all analysis must be based on observed facts, evidence and data. Findings should be specific, concise and supported by quantitative and/or qualitative information that is reliable, valid and generalizable. The broad range of data provides strong opportunities for triangulation. This process is essential to ensure a comprehensive and coherent understanding of the data sets, which will be generated by the evaluation The data analysis approach needs to be detailed in the inception report.

The evaluation should, inter alia, include:

• Desk reviews: The evaluator will review all relevant documentation, including the following: i) Regional Programme Document ii) project documents and progress reports; iii) past evaluation reports iv) UNDP’s corporate strategies and  reports, etc.
• Interviews and focus group discussions, or surveys as appropriate (focusing on an equal gender representation): Stakeholders to be engaged will include: i) UNDP staff ii) regional institutions and government partners iii) target groups and representatives of civil society organisations, including women's rights organizations.; iv) donors v) UN agencies working to contribute to the same outcome, etc.
• Briefing and debriefing sessions: Briefing and debriefing sessions with UNDP staff and stakeholders.

It is worth noting that as of 11 March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a global pandemic as the new coronavirus rapidly spread worldwide. Travel has been restricted since then. Accordingly, the evaluator shall develop a methodology that takes this into account to conduct the evaluation virtually and remotely, including the use of remote interview methods and extended desk reviews, data analysis, surveys and questionnaires. This should be detailed in the inception report and agreed with the Evaluation Manager.

As the evaluation will be carried out virtually, due consideration should be given to stakeholder availability and willingness to be interviewed remotely, their access to the internet/computer, and the possibility that some may be still working from home. These limitations must be reflected in the evaluation report. Remote interviews will be undertaken through telephone or online (skype, zoom etc).

A short validation mission may be considered if it is confirmed to be safe for staff, consultants, stakeholders and if such a mission is possible within the evaluation schedule.

Overall guidance on evaluation methodology can be found in the UNDP Evaluation Guidelines.18 The evaluator will determine the specific design and provide a complete evaluation methodology to UNDP as part of the evaluation inception report which will include a detailed workplan for this assignment, comprehensive of interview schedule and data to be used in the evaluation. Due consideration of COVID-19 implications should also be clearly outlined in the inception report and discussed and agreed with UNDP. More information can be found in the UNDP guidance on ‘virtual evaluations during COVID-19.19

SCOPE OF WORK, RESPONSIBILITIES AND DESCRIPTION OF THE PROPOSED WORK

The objective of this assignment is to engage the services of a highly qualified, independent and objective individual to conduct outcome evaluation in accordance with the proposed objectives and scope of this Procurement Notice / Terms of References (ToR) and following the UNDP evaluation guidelines (2019).20

The selected individual should not have participated in the design, implementation, and decision-making of the projects / initiatives contributing to this outcome.

S/he must successfully deliver the outputs below:

1. Initial work plan.
2. Evaluation inception report (around 15 pages). The inception report should be carried out following and based on preliminary discussions with UNDP after the desk review and should be produced before the evaluation starts.
3. Draft evaluation report (refer to report template in the annex21). The programme unit and key stakeholders in the evaluation should review the draft evaluation report and provide a set of comments to the evaluator within an agreed period of time, addressing the content required (as agreed in the TOR and inception report) and quality criteria as outlined in the evaluation guidelines.
4. Evaluation report audit trail. Comments and changes by the evaluator in response to the draft report should be retained by the evaluator to show how he/she has addressed comments.
5. Final evaluation report, including the executive summary and annexes.
6. Evaluation debriefings. Following an evaluation, UNDP may ask for a preliminary debriefing of findings.

In line with the UNDP’s financial regulations, when determined by UNDP and/or the consultant that a deliverable or service cannot be satisfactorily completed due to the impact of COVID-19 and limitations to the evaluation, that deliverable or service will not be paid.

Due to the current situation and its implications, a partial payment may be considered if the consultant invested time towards the deliverable but was unable to complete to circumstances beyond his/her control.

S/he will undertake the following tasks/steps to  conduct the outcome evaluation in accordance with the proposed objective and scope of the evaluation ToR:

1. Present an initial work plan;
2. Conduct a desk review of documents;
3. Prepare an inception report detailing the evaluation scope, of the proposed methodology, a detailed work plan and the evaluation report outline;
4. Conduct interviews /focus groups/surveys with regional / national and other identified stakeholders;
5. Conduct debriefing sessions with UNDP as implementing partner;
6. Prepare the draft evaluation report;
7. Present draft findings;
8. Finalize the evaluation report and submit it together with the duly filled audit trail form to UNDP.

EXPECTED OUTPUTS AND DELIVERABLES

16 The indicative outputs were defined in the planning phase, with the expectation that some would change during the implementation phase.

17 Between 2015 and 2020. YLP was initially launched under the Mosharaka project in 2015.

18http://web.undp.org/evaluation/guideline/documents/PDF/UNDP_Evaluation_Guidelines.pdf  19http://web.undp.org/evaluation/guideline/documents/covid19/update/June2020/UNDP%20DE%20Guidance%20Planning%20and%20Implementation%20during%20COVID19%20JUNE%202020.pdf 

20http://web.undp.org/evaluation/guideline/documents/PDF/UNDP_Evaluation_Guidelines.pdf

16 The indicative outputs were defined in the planning phase, with the expectation that some would change during the implementation phase.

Competencies

Corporate

• Demonstrates integrity and fairness, by modeling the UN/UNDP’s values and ethical standards;
• Displays cultural, gender, religion, race, nationality and age sensitivity and adaptability.

Functional

• Time management and organizational skills, with the ability to undertake multiple tasks and deliver under pressure;
• Strong analytical and synthesis skills;
• Strong analytical and problem-solving skills, and present practical solutions to complex problems;
• Ability to work independently and achieve quality results with limited supervision and within tight schedules;
• Experience in reports production;
• Ability to write in a clear and concise manner;
• Good teamwork and interpersonal skills;
• Flexibility and ability to handle multiple tasks and work under pressure;
• Excellent computer skills especially Word, Excel and Power Point

Leadership

• Demonstrated ability to think strategically and to provide credible leadership;
• Demonstrated flexibility in leadership by performing and/or overseeing the analysis/resolution of complex issues;
• Ability  to  conceptualize  and  convey  strategic  vision  from  the  spectrum  of  development experience.

Managing Relationships

• Demonstrated ability to develop and maintain strategic partnerships;
• Demonstrated well developed people management and organizational management skills;
• Excellent  management  skills  in  navigating  and  working  with  diverse  range  of  partners, stakeholders, including senior and high-level policymakers.
• Excellent negotiating and networking skills with strong partnerships in academia, technical organizations and as a recognized expert in the practice area.

Managing Complexity

• Ability to address global development issues;
• Demonstrated substantive leadership and ability to integrate knowledge with broader strategic, policy and operational objectives.

Judgment/Decision-Making

• Mature judgment and initiative;
• Proven ability to provide strategic direction to the project implementation process;
• Strategic thinker who is able to make connections across different thematic areas and identify opportunities for integrated solutions.
• Independent judgment and discretion in advising on handling major policy issues and challenges, uses diplomacy and tact to achieve result.

Required Skills and Experience

Education:

• Master’s      degree      in      economics,         public      administration,      political science,         regional development/planning, or other social science related fields

Work experience:

• At least 10 years of experience in conducting evaluations for international organisations, preferably with direct experience in capacity development
• Adequate experience in public sector development, primarily in the area of governance, as well as conflict prevention, resilience, and gender equality
• Adequate   experience   in   programme   evaluations   in   the   development   field,   with   proven accomplishments in undertaking evaluation for international organizations
• Proven accomplishments in undertaking evaluations in the Arab region

Language Requirements:

• Language proficiency in both written and oral English is required. Fluency in other UN language is an asse

• The individual is required to exhibit his or her full-time commitment with UNDP Regional Bureau for Arab States (RBAS);
• The individual will work under the general guidance and will be reporting to the Regional Programme Coordinator of UNDP-RBAS who is located at the Regional Hub, in Amman. He/She will work under the direct supervision and in close coordination with the Evaluation Manager (EM) who will oversee the overall evaluation process. The EM will also be responsible for liaising with the Evaluator to set up stakeholder interviews, desk review, conduct the quality assurance of the inception and evaluation reports, etc. Given that the evaluation will be conducted virtually, an updated stakeholder list with contact details (phone and  email) will be provided to the consultant.  An  ‘Evaluation Focal Team’ composed of key stakeholders and UNDP relevant staff will be set-up in order to provide technical inputs to enhance the quality of the evaluation. The Regional Programme Coordinator will take responsibility for the approval of the final evaluation report;
• The supervision will include approvals/acceptance of the outputs and deliverables as identified in the previous section;
• The individual is expected to liaise and collaborate in the course of performing the work with other consultants, suppliers and UN colleagues;
• The individual is required to provide periodical progress reports on regular and needed basis throughout the assignment to monitor progress;
• The individual is required to maintain close communication with UNDP-RBAS on regular and needed basis at any period throughout the assignment in order to monitor progress. In the event of any delay, S/he will inform UNDP promptly so that decisions and remedial action may be taken accordingly;
• Should UNDP deem it necessary, it reserves the right to commission additional inputs, reviews or revisions, as needed to ensure the quality and relevance of the work;
• This evaluation will be conducted in accordance with the principles outlined in the UNEG ‘Ethical Guidelines for Evaluation’.23 The consultant must safeguard the rights and confidentiality of information providers, interviewees and stakeholders through measures to ensure compliance with legal and other relevant codes governing collection of data and reporting on data. The consultant must also ensure security of collected information before and after the evaluation and protocols to ensure anonymity and confidentiality of sources of information where that is expected. The information knowledge and data gathered in the evaluation process must also be solely used for the evaluation and not for other uses with the express authorization of UNDP and partners.

DURATION OF THE WORK

The expected duration of the assignment is expected to be up to (40) working days over a period of (2) calendar months from the contract signature date. The following table illustrates a detailed schedule for the process.

DUTY STATION

Home based assignment.

TRAVEL PLAN (OPTIONAL)

If any unforeseen travel outside the consultant home based city is requested by UNDP and not required by the Terms of References (ToR), such travel shall be covered by UNDP in line with applicable rules and regulations and upon prior written agreement. In such cases, the consultant shall receive living allowances not exceeding the United Nations (UN) Daily Subsistence Allowance (DSA) rate for such other location(s).

SCOPE OF PRICE PROPOSAL AND SCHEDULE OF PAYMENTS

Interested candidates should provide lump sum  fees  for  requested  services  with  detailed  breakdown. This amount must be “all-inclusive”. Please note that the terms “all-inclusive” implies that all costs (professional fees, travel costs, living allowances, communications, consumables, etc.) that could possibly be incurred are already factored into the final amounts submitted in the proposal. Also, please note that the contract price will be Deliverables/Outputs based - not fixed - subject to change in the cost components.

The contractor will be paid an all-inclusive Deliverables/Outputs based lump sum amounts over the assignment period, subject to the submission of Certification of Payment (CoP) duly certified or an invoice and confirmation of satisfactory performance of achieved work (deliverables/outputs) in line with the schedule of payments table hereunder:

RECOMMENDED PRESENTATION OF OFFER

Interested individual consultants must submit the following documents/information to demonstrate their qualifications. Candidates that fail to submit the required information will not be considered.

1. Personal CV or P11, indicating all past experience from similar projects, as well as the contact details (email and telephone number) of the Candidate and at least three (3) professional references;
2. Brief Description of why you consider yourself as the most suitable candidate for this assignment;
3. Financial Proposal that indicates the all-inclusive Deliverables/Outputs based total contract price, supported by a breakdown of costs, as per template provided. The terms “all-inclusive” implies that all costs (professional fees, travel costs, living allowances, communications, consumables, etc.) that could possibly be incurred are already factored into the final amounts submitted in the proposal. If an Offeror is employed by an organization/company/institution, and he/she expects his/her employer to charge a management fee in the process of releasing him/her to UNDP under Reimbursable Loan Agreement (RLA), the Offeror must indicate at this point, and ensure that all such costs are duly incorporated in the financial proposal submitted to UNDP.

All necessary information including: Complete Procurement Notice, the Selection Criteria, and Annexes are found on the following link under Procurement http://procurement-notices.undp.org/

Interested individual consultants must submit the above mentioned documents/information to demonstrate their qualifications to Job advertisement website (https://jobs.undp.org/cj_view_jobs.cfm) not later than 31 October 2020. Candidates that fail to submit the required information on or before the set deadline (31 October 2020) will not be considered.

Please do not submit financial proposal in this stage. Financial proposal shall be requested from Candidates who are considered technically responsive

CRITERIA FOR SELECTION OF THE BEST OFFERS

This selection criteria will follow the Combined Scoring method – where the qualifications and methodology will be weighted a max. of 70%, and combined with the price offer which will be weighted a max of 30%; using the following evaluation criteria

Shortlisted candidates will be invited for virtual consultation, then assessed and scored against the following evaluation criteria:

Step II : Technical Review

Shortlisted candidates will undergo a technical evaluation which will include an interview, and a submission of a proposal to tackle the assignment.

Interviews will be conducted by the technical evaluation committee remotely. Submission of a proposal to tackle the assignment will be shared with shortlisted candidates.

Technical evaluation Criteria max 100 points (Weighted 70):

• Criteria A: Master’s degree in economics, public administration, political science, regional development/planning, or other social science related fields (20 points);
• Criteria B: At least 10 years of experience in conducting evaluations for international organisations, preferably with direct experience in capacity development (20 points);
• Criteria C: Adequate experience in public sector development, primarily in the area of governance, as well as conflict prevention, resilience, and gender equality (20 points);
• Criteria D: Adequate experience in programme evaluations in the development field, with proven accomplishments in undertaking evaluation for international organizations (20 points);
• Criteria E: Proven accomplishments in undertaking evaluations in the Arab region (10 points);
• Criteria F: Language proficiency in both written and oral English (10 points);

Shortlisted candidates will be assessed and scored against the following evaluation criteria:

Financial Criteria - 30% of total evaluation

For those offers considered in the financial evaluation, the lowest price offer will receive 30 points. The other offers will receive points in relation to the lowest offer, based on the following formula: (PI / Pn) * 30 where Pn is the financial offer being evaluated and Pl is the lowest financial offer received.

Step II: Final evaluation

The final evaluation will combine the scores of the desk review and the financial proposal with the following weights assigned to each:

Individual consultants will be evaluated based on the cumulative analysis methodology (weighted scoring method), where the award of the contract will be made to the individual consultant whose offer has been evaluated and determined as:

• Responsive/compliant/acceptable; and
• Having received the highest score out of a pre-determined set of technical and financial criteria specific to the solicitation.

Technical Criteria weight: [70%] Financial Criteria weight: [30%]

Only Individual Consultants obtaining a minimum of 49 points (70%) on the Technical evaluation would be considered for the Financial Evaluation.

ANNEXES

23 UNEG, ‘Ethical Guidelines for Evaluation’, June 2008. Available at http://www.unevaluation.org/document/detail/102.

24 A length of 50 to 60 pages including executive summary is suggested.