Background

The Arab region continues to witness major conflicts driven by multiple root causes related to governance crisis and political legitimacy, economic challenges, social drivers, climate security and, recently, the impact of COVID-19 pandemic. While only approximately 5% of the world’s population live in the Arab region, the region has suffered disproportionally from the world’s conflicts in recent decades: one in five conflicts globally has occurred in the region since the establishment of the UN. Conflicts and violence in the region continue to be the most challenging factor that is hampering progress on human and economic development, including in the form of education, health, quality of life, freedoms, rule of law and access to justice, gender equality, and climate security.

Conflict in the Arab region is a major obstacle to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 2030 agenda, particularly SDG 16 on Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions. Citizens of many Arab countries are suffering from the lack of good governance caused by deeply rooted institutional corruption, a failure to secure the most basic services, lack of fair and balanced distribution of resources and lack of transparency. Additionally, while some progress in the region has been made in reducing extreme poverty, a number of countries are still struggling to address rising unemployment especially responding to economic needs of the youth. The social root causes of conflict and violence in the region, including increased sectarianism, human rights abuses, authoritarian rule, discrimination against minorities and women and high number of displacement of communities continue to persist and contribute to the erosion of social cohesion. Moreover, while policy makers in the region are increasingly conscious of the role of climate change, water scarcity and ecosystem disruption as root causes of growing inequalities, displacement and conflict in the region, the Arab region is still the world’s most water insecure and food import dependent region.[1]

The spread of COVID-19 has only further exacerbated the challenges of conflict prevention in the region. The region’s economy is expected to contract by 5.7 percent,[2] with the economies of some conflict countries projected to shrink by as much as 13 percent, amounting to an overall loss of US$152 billion.[3] The twin shock of the pandemic and low oil prices has prompted the International Monetary Fund to lower its Middle East and North Africa economic forecast to its lowest level in 50 years. This crisis is having a disproportionate socioeconomic impact on youth, women, migrants and displaced, population with disabilities, minorities, and those working in the informal sector who have no access to social protection and unemployment insurance.

Additionally, vulnerability of women to gender-based violence is increasing due to the pandemic with increased levels of intimate partner violence being reported as well as evidence of increased levels of female genital mutilation in some countries of the region. With the largest gender gap in human development in the world, women in the Arab region are significantly suffering from the consequences of the pandemic.[4] Gender equality, legislation and participation by women in the labor market lag markedly behind compared to other parts of the world.

Addressing the impact of COVID-19 must include peacebuilding and prevention lens, while paying close attention to the impact of crisis on fragile transitional countries and countries that already face security, humanitarian, and development deterioration. Countries in the region need to strengthen their capacity to effectively manage local risks and shocks through sustained, inclusive, and targeted prevention efforts. This requires deeper and broader government, civil society and stakeholder engagement in planning and implementing national strategies for prevention. Successful prevention work relies on a bottom-up community engagement in development and peacebuilding and on the inclusion and empowerment of a wide range of groups (including marginalized groups, youth and women) and actors through people-centric approaches.

The fact that many of the factors that led to conflicts in the recent past have persisted are evidence that the root causes of those conflicts were not sufficiently addressed, and the region remains particularly exposed to geopolitical dynamics and competition for resources. UNDP, and its partners, will need to carefully assess current risks in the Arab region to help advancing a forward-looking conflict prevention and peacebuilding agenda.

[1] FAO, Arab Horizon 2030: Prospects for Enhancing Food Security in the Arab Region, http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/user_upload/rne/docs/arab-horizon-2030-prospects-enhancing-food-security-summary-english.pdf

[2] International Monetary Fund, Regional Economic Outlook Update, available at https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO/MECA/Issues/2020/07/13/regional-economic-outlook-update-menap-cca#report

[3] Based on ESCWA estimate. Covid-19, Economic Cost in the Arab Region, ESCWA, https://www.unescwa.org/sites/www.unescwa.org/files/escwa-covid-19-economic-cost-arab-region-en.pdf

[4] UN Policy Brief: The Impact of COVID-19 on them Arab Region: An Opportunity to Build Back Better,  https://www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/sg_policy_brief_covid-19_and_arab_states_english_version_july_2020.pdf

Duties and Responsibilities

The overall objective of the assignment is to conduct a comprehensive regional conflict prevention analysis to inform sustainable and inclusive prevention in the Arab countries and to identify entry points for a regional project on conflict prevention and peacebuilding. The analysis should aim at:

1. Uncovering structural drivers of conflict and violence risks in the region.

2. Assessing resilience factors and prevention capacities at the local level that can be supported and scaled up to promote sustainable peace.

3. Conducting an overview of recent conflict prevention and peacebuilding interventions in the region to identify critical gaps and needs.

4. Examining prevention approaches to identify good practices and tools (early warning, protection, mediation, diplomacy, etc.) to address grievances, inequalities and injustice before they lead to conflicts and undermine social cohesion.

5. Identifying programmatic entry points on conflict prevention and peacebuilding that are relevant for UNDP country offices in the Arab States region including:

• Shedding light on opportunities and ideally assess local resilience capacities that can be leveraged to prevent conflict and sustain peace.

• Analysis of infrastructures of peace and mechanisms for dispute resolution, consensus building etc.

• Strengthening UNDP peace, development, and humanitarian nexus approach in the region.

The conflict prevention analysis will specifically attempt to  (i) unpack the drivers of recent conflicts in the region that are shared across the various countries, including drivers stemming from governance, climate change, economic and social issues, through a gender-sensitive analysis; (ii) explore factors of resilience across communities, prevention actors and their capacities at the local level to identify stakeholders for future engagement on prevention and peacebuilding; (iii) conduct an overview of existing programming on conflict prevention and peacebuilding to inform critical gaps and needs in the regions; (iv) examine prevention approaches, good practices, innovations and challenges in fragile and conflict-affected countries, with particular attention to the role of youth and women as agents of change and peacebuilding; and (v) propose recommendations  for thematic areas on prevention to be integrated under a regional project, including gender and youth specific recommendations.

Duties and Responsibilities:

1. Conduct a light literature review on peace and conflict issues in the Arab States: The literature review should cover existing analysis on peace and conflict drivers in the Arab States region to identify knowledge and data gaps, to inform the direction of the proposed conflict analysis.

2. Develop a practical methodology and implementation plan for a regional conflict analysis: The methodology should a) be conflict and gender sensitive, b) outline a data gathering and analysis plan, c) incorporate risk mitigation plan, d) should be responsive to the context and the practical needs of the UNDP Regional Hub.

3. Conduct an extensive desk review of projects, programs, policy documents (e.g. UN Sustainable Development Cooperation Frameworks), and evaluation reports to map out existing conflict prevention and peacebuilding-related interventions and identify gaps.

4. Data collection involving gender-sensitive field or remote consultations (interviews, focus group discussions) with key stakeholders, including but not limited to members of the civil society, local community leaders, and representatives of local government, civil society, and relevant stakeholders. 

5. Assessment of the findings:

   • Through a development lens, analyze relevant social, cultural, economic, environmental, historical, political, and security factors that make up the current regional context and identify issues that warrant further analysis.

   • Identify and analyze the root and/or structural causes of regional issues at play, including their intermediate/proximate causes and triggers.

   • Identify and analyze the key stakeholders, including local, national, regional and international actors (individuals, groups, institutions), including their interests, goals, positions, capacities, and relationships in the context of conflict prevention.

   • Identify factors of resilience and the role of community actors in sustaining them.

   • Identify and analyze the gendered dimensions of existing conflicts and post-conflict situations to help identify structural causes and potential prevention measures.

   • Analyze and assess the UN response in the region in order to identify potential entry points for the UN and partners to address the root causes, strengthen existing mechanisms and programs, and work more effectively to mediate and prevent tensions. This will include an examination of regional capacities, coping mechanisms, and overall opportunities to provide conflict-sensitive responses that are driven by gender and human rights considerations.

6. Develop a comprehensive report, that presents a systematic and synthesized assessment of findings and provides strategic recommendations at regional level. The report should indicate to UNDP which risk areas require more attention, including cross-pillar elements and humanitarian-development-peace nexus programming, highlighting the impact or potential impact the risks could have on the region’s peace and development trajectory.

7. Hold progress and debriefing sessions for UNDP presenting the findings of the analysis and present strategic entry points for potential further UNDP programming. These workshops would serve to present and help validate the analysis and include opportunities to further elaborate on conflict prevention programming as well as suggestions for the implementation process.

EXPECTED OUTPUTS AND DELIVERABLES

• Light literature review of available conflict and peace analysis in the Arab States region (no more than 10 pages);

• Methodology outline and implementation plan to be applied for the conflict prevention analysis (5-10 pages);

• Desk review and mapping of UN engagement relevant for conflict prevention and peacebuilding in the region;

• Research and data collection, culminating in a comprehensive report with recommendations (around 30 pages);

• Workshop for UNDP presenting the preliminary findings of the assessment;

• Contributions towards the identification of entry points for a regional UNDP project on prevention and peacebuilding in the region;

• Final debriefing session to update UNDP senior management and technical focal points on the findings of the assignment;

Competencies

Corporate

1. Demonstrates integrity and fairness, by modeling the UN/UNDP’s values and ethical standards;
2. Displays cultural, gender, religion, race, nationality and age sensitivity and adaptability.

Functional:

1. Excellent organizational skills and strong analytical, research, data gathering, writing and communication skills is required;
2. Time management and organizational skills, with the ability to undertake multiple tasks and deliver under pressure;
3. Strong analytical and problem-solving skills, and present practical solutions to complex problems;
4. Ability to work independently and achieve quality results with limited supervision and within tight schedules;
5. Experience in reports production;
6. Ability to write in a clear and concise manner;
7. Good teamwork and interpersonal skills;
8. Flexibility and ability to handle multiple tasks and work under pressure;
9. Excellent computer skills especially Word, Excel and Power Point.

Leadership:

1. Demonstrated ability to think strategically and to provide credible leadership;
2. Demonstrated flexibility in leadership by performing and/or overseeing the analysis/resolution of complex issues;
3. Ability to conceptualize and convey strategic vision from the spectrum of development experience.

Managing Relationships

1. Demonstrated ability to develop and maintain strategic partnerships;
2. Demonstrated well developed people management and organizational management skills;
3. Excellent management skills in navigating and working with diverse range of partners, stakeholders, including senior and high-level policymakers.
4. Excellent negotiating and networking skills with strong partnerships in academia, technical organizations and as a recognized expert in the practice area.

Managing Complexity

1. Ability to address global development issues;
2. Demonstrated substantive leadership and ability to integrate knowledge with broader strategic, policy and operational objectives.

Knowledge Management and Learning

1. Promotes knowledge management in UNDP and a learning environment in the office through leadership and personal example;
2. Seeks and applies knowledge, information and best practices from within and outside of UNDP;
3. Demonstrates a strong capacity for innovation and creativity in providing strategic policy advice and direction.

Judgment/Decision Making:

1. Mature judgment and initiative;
2. Proven ability to provide strategic direction to the project implementation process;
3. Independent judgment and discretion in advising on handling major policy issues and challenges, uses diplomacy and tact to achieve result.

Required Skills and Experience

Education:

Master’s Degree in social sciences with a focus on peace and conflict studies, international relations, political science, development studies or any other related field is required; 

Work experience:

1. At least 7 years of progressively responsible experience in designing and implementing national and regional-level conflict analysis and qualitative research on peace and conflict issues is required;
2. A minimum of 3 years of experience in peace and conflict research in conflict and crisis-affected areas is required;
3. Demonstrated experience and knowledge in facilitation, consensus-building, multi-stakeholder dialogue processes, mediation, dispute resolution, social cohesion, and relevant conflict prevention and peacebuilding intervention areas is required;
4. Experience in conducting inclusive conflict analysis, including through enhancing women’s participation in conflict analysis processes is desirable;
5. Knowledge in the Middle East and North Africa is desirable.
6. Experience working with the United Nations and/or International Organizations in the Arab Region is desirable.

Language Requirements:

Language proficiency in both written and oral English is required. Knowledge of any other UN language is an asset;

INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENT

• The individual is required to exhibit his or her full-time commitment with UNDP Regional Bureau for Arab States (RBAS); 

• S/He shall perform tasks under the overall guidance and direct supervision of Conflict Prevention and Peacebuilding Programme Advisor, additional strategic guidance on the assignment is coordinated with and received from Team Leader, Conflict Prevention and Peacebuilding Team, UNDP/CB and the Regional Bureau for Arab States;

• The supervision will include approvals/acceptance of the outputs and deliverables as identified in the previous section; 

• The individual is expected to liaise and collaborate in the course of performing the work with other consultants, suppliers and UN colleagues; 

• The individual is required to provide periodical weekly progress reports and when requested on any period of time throughout the assignment to monitor progress;  

• The individual is required to maintain close communication with UNDP-RBAS on regular and needed basis at any period throughout the assignment in order to monitor progress. In the event of any delay, S/he will inform UNDP promptly so that decisions and remedial action may be taken accordingly; and 

• Should UNDP deem it necessary, it reserves the right to commission additional inputs, reviews or revisions, as needed to ensure the quality and relevance of the work. 

DURATION OF THE WORK

The expected duration of the assignment is expected to be 40 working days for over period of Four (4) calendar months from contract signature date.

DUTY STATION

Home Based Assignment

TRAVEL PLAN (OPTIONAL)

If any unforeseen travel outside the consultant home-based city is requested by UNDP and not required by the Terms of References (ToR), such travel shall be covered by UNDP in line with applicable rules and regulations and upon prior written agreement. In such cases, the consultant shall receive living allowances not exceeding the United Nations (UN) Daily Subsistence Allowance (DSA) rate for such other location(s).

RECOMMENDED PRESENTATION OF OFFER

Interested individual consultants must submit documents under point 1,2 &3 to demonstrate their qualifications. Candidates that fail to submit these documents, the application will not be considered.

1. Duly accomplished using the template provided by UNDP;

2. Personal CV or P11, indicating all past experience from similar projects, as well as the contact details (email and telephone number) of the Candidate and at least three (3) professional references.

3. Brief Description of why you consider yourself as the most suitable candidate for this assignment;

4. Financial Proposal: Please do not submit financial proposal in this stage. Financial proposal shall be requested from Candidates who are considered technically responsive

When the financial proposal is requested it should  indicates the all-inclusive Deliverables/Outputs based total contract price, supported by a breakdown of costs, as per template provided. The terms “all-inclusive” implies that all costs (professional fees, travel costs, living allowances, communications, consumables, etc.) that could possibly be incurred are already factored into the final amounts submitted in the proposal. If an Offeror is employed by an organization/company/institution, and he/she expects his/her employer to charge a management fee in the process of releasing him/her to UNDP under Reimbursable Loan Agreement (RLA), the Offeror must indicate at this point, and ensure that all such costs are duly incorporated in the financial proposal submitted to UNDP.

Interested candidates shall submit required documents to Job Advertisement Website (https://jobs.undp.org/cj_view_jobs.cfm) as one document not later than 02 April 2021.

Interested candidates can find Procurement Notice, Letter of Confirmation of Interest and Availability and P11 templates on the following link: http://procurement-notices.undp.org/

SCOPE OF PRICE PROPOSAL AND SCHEDULE OF PAYMENTS

Interested candidates should provide lump sum fees for requested services with detailed breakdown. This amount must be “all-inclusive”. Please note that the terms “all-inclusive” implies that all costs (professional fees, communications, consumables, …etc.) that could possibly be incurred are already factored into the final amounts submitted in the proposal. Also, please note that the contract price will be Deliverables/Outputs based - not fixed - subject to change in the cost components.

The contractor will be paid an all-inclusive Deliverables/Outputs based lump sum amounts over the assignment period, subject to the submission of Certification of Payment (CoP) duly certified or an invoice and confirmation of satisfactory performance of achieved work (deliverables/outputs) in line with the schedule of payments table hereunder:

CRITERIA FOR SELECTION OF THE BEST OFFERS

This selection criteria will follow the Combined Scoring method – where the qualifications and methodology will be weighted a max. of 70%, and combined with the price offer which will be weighted a max of 30%; using the following evaluation criteria

Individual consultants will be evaluated based on the following methodologies:

Step I: Screening and desk review:

Individual consultants will be evaluated based on the following methodology.

Applications will be first screened and only candidates meeting the following minimum requirements will progress to the pool for shortlisting:

• Criteria A: Master’s Degree in social sciences with a focus on peace and conflict studies, international relations, political science, development studies or a related field is required;

• Criteria B: At least 7 years of progressively responsible experience in designing and implementing national and regional-level conflict analysis and qualitative research on peace and conflict issues is required;

• Criteria C: Language proficiency in both written and oral English is required.

Step II: interview:

Shortlisted candidates will undergo a technical evaluation which will include desk review and  interview for shortlisted candidates as per above criteria,

Interviews will be conducted by the technical evaluation committee remotely.

Step III: Technical Review

Technical evaluation Criteria max 100 points (Weighted 70):

• Criteria A: Master’s Degree in social sciences with a focus on peace and conflict studies, international relations, political science, development studies or a related field is required (15 points);

• Criteria B:At least 7 years of progressively responsible experience in designing and implementing national and regional-level conflict analysis and qualitative research on peace and conflict issues is required (15 points);

• Criteria C: A minimum of 3 years of experience in peace and conflict research in conflict and crisis-affected areas is required (15 points);

• Criteria D: Demonstrated experience and knowledge in facilitation, consensus-building, multi-stakeholder dialogue processes, mediation, dispute resolution, social cohesion, and relevant conflict prevention and peacebuilding intervention areas is required (15 points);

• Criteria E: Previous working experience with the United Nations (UN) and/or International organizations in the Arab Region. (10 points);

• Criteria F: Interview (30 points);

Shortlisted candidates will be assessed and scored against the following evaluation criteria:

Financial Criteria - 30% of total evaluation

For those offers considered in the financial evaluation, the lowest price offer will receive 30 points. The other offers will receive points in relation to the lowest offer, based on the following formula: (PI / Pn) * 30 where Pn is the financial offer being evaluated and Pl is the lowest financial offer received.

Step III: Final evaluation

The final evaluation will combine the scores of the desk review and the financial proposal with the following weights assigned to each:

Individual consultants will be evaluated based on the cumulative analysis methodology (weighted scoring method), where the award of the contract will be made to the individual consultant whose offer has been evaluated and determined as:

• Responsive/compliant/acceptable; and

• Having received the highest score out of a pre-determined set of technical and financial criteria specific to the solicitation.

  Technical Criteria weight: [70%]

  Financial Criteria weight: [30%]

  Only Individual Consultants obtaining a minimum of 49 points (70%) on the Technical evaluation would be considered for the Financial Evaluation.