Historique

After the “velvet revolution” in Armenia in 2018 30+ new sectoral strategies have been designed, with eight already approved, including the Public Finance Management (PFM) Strategy. And an overall national development strategy – the Armenia Transformation Strategy (ATS) 2050 was launched by the Prime Minster on 21 September 2020. However, the ATS risks remaining a vision rather than becoming a vehicle for change if associated strategies and policies are not properly cost and aligned with integrated financing frameworks.

Armenia registered its first COVID-19 case on 2 March, followed by the declaration of a State of Emergency from April to September, including strict containment measures such as a full national lock-down (in April), school closures, travel bans on foreign citizens from high-risk countries, and imposed fines to those who violate isolation orders during the state of emergency. The health crisis shock of the pandemic and imposed restrictions resulted in business disruption, income loss and income insecurity at household level as well as deterioration of health and social well-being of the population.

In response, the Government developed a National COVID-19 Strategic Management Plan and rolled out 25 support packages to smooth the economic and social effects of COVID-19 with a headline amount of $300 million (2 percent of GDP). The fiscal measures fall into three broad categories:

• subsidized 2-3-year loans to provide short-term support to affected businesses and SMEs;
• direct subsidies to SMEs and businesses to help maintain their employees;
• grants to entrepreneurs and firms; and
• lump-sum transfers to the vulnerable including individuals who were unemployed after the COVID-19 outbreak, families with or expecting children, micro-businesses, general population who needed help with utility bills, and temporary part-time employment.

Severe fighting in and around Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) broke out on 27 September 2020. An agreement on a cessation of hostilities was announced in the joint statement of the President of Azerbaijan, the Prime Minister of Armenia, and the President of the Russian Federation on 9 November. The conflict has left thousands of deceased and wounded servicemen, spurred a displacement crisis from NK to Armenia, added stress on institutions and their capacities to address essential health, social and livelihood needs and triggered political instability.

After the escalation of the conflict in NK the exchange rate started to fluctuate posing foreign exchange risks to macro-economic stability. On December 15, the CBA increased the policy rate by 1 to 5.25 percent and made a declaration that the CBA starts to make transactions in foreign exchange market to safeguard price and financial stability in the country.

Overall, COVID-19 crisis and the escalation of the conflict in NK brings too many risks to political system, economy, social and health care sectors in Armenia. Large increase in military expenses and losses in income of households and businesses should be addressed properly and effectively by the Government of Armenia not to have dangerous effects on the economic situation in near future. 

Project overview

The financial landscape for both public and private sources is rapidly changing in Armenia. Armenia is a developing country and there is not one established framework which will address the relevant sources of financing to the right situations or problems. Moreover, COVID-19 crisis and the escalation of the conflict in NK increased the existing problematic issues in financing landscape and created uncertainty and risks for adequate financing policy from the Government. That’s why development of a reliable framework is becoming crucial to design new financial instruments and to use different sources of development financing to respond and recover from the compound crisis.

Project Document “Making Finance work for transformative change in Armenia: UN-locking Finance for Armenia 2030” was agreed by UNDP, UNICEF and WFP. It was agreed with Deputy Prime Minister office and Ministry of Finance of Armenia. According to the document fully-fledged Development Finance Assessment (DFA) should be implemented in line with the Project’s proposed INFF roadmap.

In the current situation in Armenia the urgency of using innovative financial instruments and the DFA tool increases to support the Government of Armenia to properly respond to COVID-19 and the conflict in NK and establish DFA framework to finance the agenda of building forward better with greater sustainability, resilience and inclusivity[1]. 

Development Finance Assessment (DFA)

The DFA is a tool to help countries to shape the inception phase in the process of operationalizing an INFF which will support financing for building back better.[2]

The DFA offers a comprehensive analysis of the public and private financing outlook, financing policies and institutional structures, and opportunities to build a more integrated approach to financing. It is a tool designed to aggregate analysis and build collaboration among actors.

Alongside the new analysis that it undertakes, the DFA draws together information from a wide range of sources and assessments that focus on finance flows or policy areas.

DFA process will be implemented in two phases:

Phase 1. DFA initial analysis and consultation phase

UNDP team should engage with government officials and other national stakeholders to collect relevant data, policy documentation and analysis to perform the preliminary DFA analysis. In this phase the DFA initial analysis will be implemented on policy and financing context to summarize the existing structures, ongoing reforms and arrangements.

A line of meetings and missions will be organized with all the governmental stakeholders and oversight committee to have the project objectives aligned with their views and priorities.

As the results of  Phase 1 the UNDP team should come up with agreements on focus of DFA, purpose, scope, oversight structures of DFA and INFF as well as agreement on roles for partners supporting government.

Phase 2. Facilitating Financing Dialogue toward the INFF Roadmap, articulating and agreeing the INFF Roadmap    

A series of financing dialogues form the backbone of the DFA process should be organized Under the guidance of the UNDP team. The DFA brings together government officials, private sector and other stakeholders to facilitate discussion on how to operationalise a more integrated approach to financing through an INFF. The DFA facilitates discussions on the challenges and opportunities across public and private financing and aims to build consensus on ways forward.

The outcome of the DFA is an INFF Roadmap which lays out the steps that will be taken subsequently to operationalise an INFF. The INFF Roadmap will be developed under the leadership of the UNDP team and capture the steps agreed through the DFA process about how each of the INFF building blocks will be brought together and operationalised within Armenian context.[3]

In this way the DFA can shape the inception phase of the process of operationalising an INFF in Armenia to support socio-economic recovery that builds back better. It offers a process through which

government can build the buy-in, complete the analysis, and build the consensus that is needed for decisions about how an INFF will support financing for building back better and the steps through which it will be operationalised.

As the results of Phase 2 the UNDP team should come up with agreement of financing dialogues, DFA report and INFF roadmap.

[1] Tim Strawson, Orria Goni, Emily Davis: “Development assessment guidebook”

[2] DFA Guidebook v3.0

[3] IATF, Integrated national financing frameworks for sustainable development

Devoirs et responsabilités

Scope of work:

Under the supervision of the Lead INFF expert and working with the UNDP country office and oversight committee, the national expert will support the DFA process, analysis and dialogue leading to the articulation and agreement of an INFF Roadmap for Armenia.

The National expert is responsible for collecting data, policy documents and analysis and for liaising with government officials and other national stakeholders. They will support the Lead expert in completing the process of analysis, consultation and dialogue throughout the DFA in accordance with the approach outlined in the DFA Guidebook.

Duties and responsibilities:

The responsibilities of the National expert will include but is not limited to the following activities through each phase of the DFA:

Phase 1. DFA initial analysis and consultation phase

• Engage with government officials and other national stakeholders to collect relevant data, policy documentation and analysis to inform the DFA analysis
• Support the Lead expert to undertake analysis of the financing context and outlook, and of existing structures, ongoing reforms and opportunities to strengthen financing policies and institutional structures in relation to the building blocks of an INFF.
• Support the Lead expert and country office to plan missions, consultations and Financing Dialogues as needed, including arranging logistics and reaching out to stakeholders
• Support, and lead where necessary, consultations with stakeholders across the financing landscape to (i) collect data, information and analysis, (ii) engage stakeholders in the DFA process and (iii) share, socialize and refine initial emerging findings and ideas for recommendations to be developed
• Support technical discussions in the initial Financing Dialogue

Phase 2. Facilitating Financing Dialogue toward the INFF Roadmap, articulating and agreeing the INFF Roadmap

• Support ongoing analysis as priorities are identified and potential recommendations identified
• Support Lead expert to prepare first draft DFA report
• Support Lead expert to conduct technical discussions through a series of Financing Dialogues
• Support dedicated working groups as needed
• Support Lead expert to draft the INFF Roadmap
• Support Lead expert working with oversight committee, relevant stakeholders to refine and develop actionable recommendations
• Support process of finalizing the INFF Roadmap as needed

The substantive analysis that will be carried out throughout the process and used to facilitate discussion through the Financing Dialogues will follow the approach detailed in the DFA Guidebook (version 3.0). It collates and analyses data and information in relation to the four building blocks of an INFF. The key analysis includes:

INFF building block 1: assessment and diagnostics

• Collating existing estimates of financing needs and costs associated with realizing national development priorities.
• Undertaking a comprehensive analysis of historic trends, the current context and future outlook across the financing landscape considering public, private, domestic and international financing resources, flows and instruments.
• Mapping and analysing a variety of risks[1] that can affect financing needs, trends and availability of financing for the sustainable development priorities, drawing from available literature and analysis.
• Developing simple scenarios of future financing trajectories based on assumptions about covid-19 recovery, future risks, progress toward financing policy targets and other factors.
• Analysing the strengths and opportunities to strengthen national institutions’ capacity to effectively deliver public and private financing policies

INFF building block 2: financing strategy

• Reviewing existing policies and ongoing reforms for governance of public and private financing considering alignment with national sustainable development priorities, coherence across financing policies and impact in terms of mobilizing and promoting investments that advance national priorities.[2]
• Analysing opportunities for mobilizing new sources of finance and strengthening the alignment of public and private financing with national priorities.
• Working with the UNDP and other stakeholders to develop solutions and recommendations for reforms to public finance policies, institutional structures and capacity with a view to supporting an integrated public finance approach to building back better and financing the national development plan.
• Working with the UNDP and other stakeholders to develop solutions and recommendations for reforms to private finance policies, institutional structures and capacity with a view to supporting an integrated approach to public policy for private finance for building back better.

INFF building block 3: monitoring and review

• Assessing the financing monitoring, tracking and reporting systems in place, institutional statistical capacity for monitoring public and private finance, and their contributions to sustainable development outcomes, as well as the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on financing trends considering issues such as the availability and comprehensiveness of real-time data.
• Working with the UNDP and other stakeholders and  to develop solutions and recommendations for building capacity and bringing together and strengthening monitoring frameworks for the INFF

INFF building block 4: governance and coordination

• Analysing the institutional frameworks and mechanisms in place through which the Government manages policies towards different types of financing in line with the national development plan and the COVID-19 response and recovery priorities.
• Analysing mechanisms for coordination across financing policies within government regarding issues such as synergies and trade-offs between financing policy areas as well as coordinated implementation of policy priorities.
• Analysing existing platforms and mechanisms (e.g. forums, working groups, and committees) for coordination and dialogue with external actors such as the private sector, civil society organizations (CSOs), think tanks, international financial institutions (IFIs) and development partners to identify opportunities to strengthen coordination of financing policy and dialogue with external partners.
• Working with the the UNDP and other stakeholders to develop recommendations for strengthening the institutional structures and capacity for more integrated management of financing policies and stronger public-private dialogue on financing.

INFF Roadmap

• Working with the the UNDP and other stakeholders to support the articulation, refinement and agreement of the INFF Roadmap

Please see the DFA analytical framework and process chapters in DFA Guidebook v3.0 for further details.

The National expert will work under the supervision of the Lead INFF expert, UNDP staff and project colleagues from UNRCO, WFP and UNICEF throughout the assignment period.

[1] Including economic, political, fiscal, financial, climate, environmental, disaster, pandemic or other risks.

[2] Policies to be analysed include those governing public finance (e.g. revenue strategy, annual and medium term budget, public debt strategy, public entity management and development cooperation policy) and private financing (e.g. private investment policies and investment promotion strategy, financial sector development and financial inclusion policies, PPP policy, diaspora engagement).

Expected deliverables

Compétences

• Good knowledge of data collection and analysis is essential.
• Good knowledge of sustainable development financing issues in Armenia.
• Good knowledge of government systems and processes of Armenia, particularly in relation to the budget, private finance policies, planning processes and their integration.
• Ability to conduct interviews with government and key stakeholders.

Qualifications et expériences requises

Eduaction 

• Advanced University degree (MSc, MA or PhD) in economics, public finance, or other relevant area.

Experience

• At least 5 years of experience in the fields of finance, public financial management, private sector development or budgeting and planning.
• Previous experience with a development partner or government is a very strong advantage.
• Research experience in areas of public or private financing policy for sustainable development is required.

Language Skills:

• Proficiency in English (written and spoken) and Russian required.

INDIVIDUAL CANDIDATES WILL BE EVALUATED BASED ON THE FOLLOWING METHODOLOGY:

Candidates will be evaluated using a cumulative analysis method taking into consideration the combination of the applicants' technical qualifications, experience and financial proposal.The contract will be awarded to the individual consultant whose offer has been evaluated and determined as technically responsive/compliant/acceptable to the requirements of the ToR and received the highest cumulative (technical and financial) score out of below defined technical and financial criteria.

Only candidates obtaining a minimum of 49 points in the technical evaluation would be considered for financial evaluation.

Technical Criteria - 70% of total evaluation - max. 70 points

Financial Criteria - 30% of total evaluation - max. 30 points.

DOCUMENTS TO BE INCLUDED WHEN SUBMITTING THE APPLICATION.

• Financial Proposal and Availability form: OFFEROR’S LETTER TO UNDP (A total lump sum  option is applicable for this assignment)
• CV shall include Education/Qualification, Processional Certification, Employment Records /Experience

General Conditions of Contract is available here: GENERAL CONDITIONS OF CONTRACT

Note: Please note you can upload only one document to this application (scan all documents in one single PDF file to attach).