Antecedentes

Among the natural catastrophes, earthquakes has most severe consequences. At the same time, consideration must be given to each major earthquake that accompanied by numerous secondary consequences causing rather substantial damage.

The results of examination of analysis of consequences of destructive earthquakes show that preliminary conduction of a complex of organizational and engineering-and-technical actions as well as due management of the population at threat of earthquake and elimination of its consequences substantially reduce human victims and minimize a material loss. The known examples of assessments of enormous economic, social, demographic and ecological damage from earthquakes illustrate that in consideration of further state development prospects it is intolerable to ignore seismic danger.

In world practice, after each major earthquake it has been estimated repeatedly, that the cost of preventive measures for decrease in a seismic risk appears to be ten times less than the cost of elimination of consequences of such earthquake, whereas the effect from preventive measures may be considerably higher than the expenses borne.

Turkmenistan is one of the most earthquake-prone countries not only in the Central Asian region, but also in the world. Studies show that the Kopetdag mountain system that separates Turkmenistan and Iran has a high seismic activity that is confirmed, in particular, by the devastating earthquake of 1948 in Ashgabat with a magnitude of 7.3, which resulted in the death of about 80% of the local population and its neighborhood.

Due to their geographic location, territorial organization and rapid economic growth, the major cities of Turkmenistan, and in particular the capital city of Ashgabat, as well as towns Balkanabad and Turkmenbashi are located in a seismically hazardous zone, and are subject to earthquakes. In case of a catastrophe, the negative impact can spread to the whole country and even beyond it. The risk of a devastating earthquake has a potentially huge negative impact on the dynamics of the country's development.

The seismic hazard and risk assessment are a necessary condition for any subsequent social-and-economic planning and application of measures directed at preparation for earthquakes and elimination of their consequences.

In order to ensure the full implementation of Turkmenistan's development goals, the Government of Turkmenistan has begun developing a focused agenda that will allow the country to become more sustainable in the face of potential natural and man-made emergencies. To this end, the Government of Turkmenistan and UNDP have reached an agreement on strategic integration of efforts for capacity building in disaster risk management in the country.

Recognizing the importance of DRR, including preparing for emergencies and supporting joint efforts in this area, the Government of Turkmenistan decided to allocate appropriate financial resources for joint implementation with UNDP of tasks and activities in the above directions. In this regard, the project “Strengthening National Capacity for Seismic Risk Assessment, Prevention and Response to Potential Earthquakes” is aimed at elaboration and realization of a complex strategic approach for forecasting and assessing seismic hazards and risks in Turkmenistan, and will assist the Government of Turkmenistan in strengthening the capacity of authorities affiliated with the preparation and response to emergencies in general.

The project complies with the principles of the Sendai Framework Program on disaster risks reduction and will promote realization of all its priorities in Turkmenistan.

The objectives of the project correspond to the country's development priorities and strategic agreements between the Government of Turkmenistan and UNDP formulated in the cooperation program (2016-2020).

Pilot activity will be worked out on the territory of Ashgabat (or some of its regions) for the subsequent application of successful practices and approaches in similar work on the territory of other settlements of Turkmenistan subject to seismic risks.

The project is directed at achievement of 3 outcomes:

• Outcome 1: Conducting a comprehensive assessment of seismic risks in Ashgabat;
• Outcome 2: Integrated development of the Institute of seismology and physics of the atmosphere of the Academy of Sciences of Turkmenistan aimed at updating and modernizing the methodological, scientific and technical and human resources;
• Outcome 3: Increasing the readiness level of the relevant agencies to respond to disasters caused by earthquakes.

During the implementation of the project, modern methods of information processing, earthquake risk assessment will be tested and implemented in accordance with international practice and standards by involving groups of international experts and leading organizations in the field of seismology.

The project realization plan of actions envisages performance of works in seismic vulnerability assessment for each of representative categories of Ashgabat buildings and all city territory as a whole with farther seismic risk assessment. For this purpose, it is planned to conduct an engineering survey of existing buildings that are representative of the modern development of Ashgabat. Also, within the framework of the project, it is planned to consider the permissible level of seismic risk for the territory of Ashgabat.

Deberes y responsabilidades

Within the project frameworks, UNDP envisages to employ the International Consultant for engineering survey of buildings and the permissible level of seismic risk.

The purpose of this technical task is:

• Providing scientific and methodological guidance and consulting support during the engineering survey of representative types of buildings in the existing development of Ashgabat, including for the purpose of assessing their actual earthquake resistance;
• An analytical review of existing approaches for determining the permissible (acceptable) level of seismic risk and the values of acceptable risk accepted in international practice. Consideration of the permissible level of seismic risk for the city of Ashgabat.

This technical task is performed within the framework of Result 1.

Working under the overall supervision of the UNDP Environmental Program Specialist and the Project Manager, under the direct supervision of the UNDP Project Team Specialist, the International Consultant for engineering survey of buildings and the permissible level of seismic risk will be responsible for the following duties and tasks:

I. Scientific and methodological guidance for the engineering survey of representative types of buildings in Ashgabat, including for the purpose of assessing their actual earthquake resistance.

Within the framework of the project, it is planned to conduct an engineering survey of existing buildings that are representative of the modern development of Ashgabat; at the same time, it is planned to examine 5-6 different types of buildings (according to the classification of construction standards of Turkmenistan). According to preliminary estimates, a total of 20-25 objects (buildings) will be examined, including 3-4 buildings of each type. The survey of the selected objects will be carried out by the Institute of Seismology and Atmospheric Physics of the Academy of Sciences of Turkmenistan. The International Consultant will be responsible for consulting support and providing scientific and methodological guidance for the following stages and types of work on the engineering survey of representative types of buildings, including the following responsibilities:

1. Consulting support and scientific and methodological guidance in the selection of types of buildings that are representative in urban development, including based on the consideration of the structural and spatial-planning characteristics of each type of building;
2. Consulting support and scientific and methodological guidance when drawing up a survey program for selected objects (buildings), including the selection of necessary engineering equipment and methods of work;
3. Consulting support and scientific and methodological guidance during the collection and analysis of design and technical documentation and other available information for each selected object (building);
4. Consulting support and scientific and methodological guidance during a comprehensive full-scale engineering survey of each selected object (building), including an assessment of the current state of load-bearing structures, as well as during instrumental and seismometric measurements to determine the building's own dynamic characteristics in its current state;
5. Consulting support and scientific and methodological guidance when performing calculations for the surveyed objects (buildings), including operational modal analysis;
6. Consulting support and scientific and methodological guidance when processing the results of field surveys and calculated data, including comparison of the initial (design) and actual (existing) characteristics of the object (building);
7. Consulting support and scientific and methodological guidance in the assessment and categorization of the technical condition of structures, as well as the assessment of seismic vulnerability and actual earthquake resistance of the surveyed objects (buildings);

II. An analytical review of the existing approaches to determining the permissible (acceptable) level of seismic risk and the acceptable risk values accepted in international practice. Consideration of the permissible level of seismic risk for the city of Ashgabat.

As part of the project, quantitative estimates of the seismic risk for the territory of Ashgabat will be obtained. In this regard, this Technical Task is supposed to consider existing approaches to assessing the permissible (acceptable) level of risk in various areas of human activity, including quantitative assessments of the values of the permissible level of risk in accordance with international practice. For this purpose, it is necessary to perform the following types of work:

1. To perform an information search for modern approaches to the assessment of acceptable risk using published sources and Internet resources (both in Russian and in English);
2. To conduct an analytical review of published sources (in Russian and in English) devoted to the criteria and quantitative determination of the permissible (acceptable) level of risk in various areas of human activity, as well as from natural disasters, with an emphasis on seismic risk;
3. Based on the analysis of approaches and criteria used in modern international practice, to propose quantitative criteria and give practical recommendations for making decisions on determining the permissible level of seismic risk for the territory of Ashgabat.

Expected Outcomes:

All results should be presented in the form of a text report in Russian (with graphic materials attached) and sent to the UNDP country office (in PDF format). The International Consultant is expected to achieve the following:

I. Scientific and methodological guidance for carrying out works on engineering survey representative types of buildings in Ashgabat, including for the purpose of assessing their actual earthquake resistance.

1. Consulting support and scientific and methodological guidance were carried out when choosing the types of buildings that are representative in urban development, including based on the consideration of the structural and space-planning characteristics of each type of building.
2. Consulting support and scientific and methodological guidance were provided when drawing up a survey program for selected objects (buildings), including the selection of necessary engineering equipment and methods of work.
3. Consulting support and scientific and methodological guidance were provided during the collection and analysis of design and technical documentation and other available information for each selected object (building).
4. Consulting support and scientific and methodological guidance were provided during a comprehensive full-scale engineering survey of each selected object (building), including an assessment of the current state of load-bearing structures, as well as during instrumental and seismometric measurements to determine the building's own dynamic characteristics in its current state.
5. Consulting support and scientific and methodological guidance were carried out when performing calculations for the surveyed objects (buildings), including operational modal analysis.
6. Consulting support and scientific and methodological guidance were carried out when processing the results of field surveys and calculated data, including a comparison of the initial (design) and actual (existing) characteristics of the object (building).
7. Consulting support and scientific and methodological guidance were provided for the assessment and categorization of the technical condition of structures, as well as the assessment of seismic vulnerability and actual earthquake resistance of the surveyed objects (buildings).

Deadlines for the execution of works under part I of the Terms of Reference: from November 10, 2021 to March 31, 2022. Payment: 60 % of the total contract amount.

II. An analytical review of the existing approaches to determining the permissible (acceptable) level of seismic risk and the acceptable risk values accepted in international practice. Consideration of the permissible level of seismic risk for the city of Ashgabat.

1. An information search for modern approaches to the assessment of acceptable risk was carried out using published sources and Internet resources (both in Russian and in English);
2. An analytical review of published sources (in Russian and in English) devoted to the criteria and quantitative determination of the permissible (acceptable) level of risk in various areas of human activity, as well as from natural disasters, with an emphasis on seismic risk, was conducted;
3. Based on the analysis of approaches and criteria used in modern international practice, quantitative criteria are proposed and practical recommendations are given for making decisions on determining the permissible level of seismic risk for the territory of Ashgabat;

Deadlines for the execution of works under Part II of the Terms of Reference: February 1, 2022 - June 15, 2022. Payment: 40 % of the total contract amount.

Payment Conditions:

Payment will be made in two stages (in parts) after the relevant sections of the task have been completed and the results achieved have been approved by a Specialist of the UNDP project team.

Organizational structure:

The International Consultant on Seismic Vulnerability will work independently, if necessary, contacting a Specialist of the UNDP project team, who will regularly evaluate the results of the consultant's work, including the timeliness of tasks and their quality. To perform the work under item I, it is planned to involve a National Consultant on earthquake resistance of buildings in Ashgabat.

Duration of the task execution:

The implementation of this task is provided on a short-term and part-time basis, as well as on the basis of achieving results. The estimated duration of work for this task is approximately 9 months, tentatively from November 2021 - June 2022.

Any delays in the execution of the task caused by organizational reasons or the need to obtain appropriate permits and access to information sources should be discussed with a Specialist of the UNDP project team in order to take appropriate actions to solve them.

Competencias

• Knowledge of modern methods of engineering inspection of existing buildings and structures in order to assess their actual earthquake resistance (required);
• Knowledge of data processing methods and programs for operational modal analysis (required);
• Knowledge of methods and programs for calculating buildings for earthquake resistance (required);
• Knowledge of the theoretical foundations of seismic risk assessment and determination of its acceptable level (required);
• The ability to professionally competently present the results of the work performed (required);

Habilidades y experiencia requeridas

Education:

• Higher education in the field of technical sciences, preferably civil engineering with specialization in building structures and earthquake resistance of structures (required);
• A degree with a specialization in building structures or in structural mechanics (preferably);

Professional Experience:

• Scientific work experience in the field of engineering seismology and earthquake-resistant construction (required);
• Practical experience (at least 15 years) of work on the assessment of seismic risk (required);
• Practical experience of engineering inspection of buildings and structures in order to assess their actual earthquake resistance (required);
• Availability of publications on the assessment of seismic risk (mandatory, with a list of published works attached);
• Experience in implementing projects on seismic risk in the countries of the Central Asian region (preferably);

Language Requirements:

• Fluency in Russian and English languages (required);

Submission of Documents:

The interested candidates shall provide the below-listed documents (information) to show their qualification:

• The applicant’s letter to UNDP confirming interest and readiness of the Individual Consultant for performance of these Terms of Reference representing the financial proposal of the Consultant. The financial proposal shall include payment of consultancy services, administrative expenses (if necessary), transport expenses and/or any other expenses, which candidates consider necessary for performance of these Terms of Reference. The financial proposal shall specify the total amount of an expected fee in a foreign currency (US Dollars) for a total scope of work. The sample of such letter under the name “Letter of Confirmation of Interest and Availability in English” may be find in a reference ONLY: http://www.tm.undp.org/content/turkmenistan/en/home/procurement.html ; THE CANDIDATES WHO WILL NOT PROVIDE THE FINANCIAL PROPOSAL WOULD BE DISQUALIFIED;
• Methodology specifying phases, tasks, methods, techniques, timetables, resources, accessibility and tools applied for successful performance of these Terms of Reference;
• Resume (Curriculum Vitae) including a respective work experience and a list of publications corresponding to the subject of these Terms of Reference.

Evaluation of Proposals:

The Consultant selection will be conducted by a method of combined evaluation using the following criteria:

1) Technical part of the proposal -70%:

• Education - 25 points;
• Professional experience in respective field (this will include the practical experience, international experience and availability of publications) - 55 points;
• Language skills – 10 points;
• Methodology - 10 points;

2) Financial part of the proposal - 30%

Additional Requirements for the Recommended Candidate:

The recommended contractors at the age of 65 years old and elder and in case if a working trip is required shall undergo a full medical examination including X-ray and obtain the medical authorization from the UN approved doctor prior to accept his assignment. The medical examination shall be approved by the UN doctor and cost covered by the Consultant.