Antecedentes

UNDP and the Ministry of Environment and Physical Planning (MoEPP) are implementing the project “Macedonia’s Fourth National Communication (NC) and Third Biennial Update Report (BUR) on Climate Change under the UNFCCC (4th NC/3rd BUR)”. The immediate objective of the project is to assist the country in the preparation and submission of its Fourth National Communication and Third Biennial Update Report on Climate Change to the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for the fulfilment of its obligations to the Convention under FCCC/CP/2002/7/Add.2 and Dec.2/CP. 17 Annex III.
Detailed climate analyses and climate change scenarios have been developed within the Third Biennial Update Report on Climate Change (2013). Some of the major concerns with a potential climate change are increase of frequency and intensity of extreme events that might occur in the country. In the last decades, the country has faced with amplified occurrence of extreme weather events such as prolonged periods of extreme high temperatures, extended periods of intense precipitation, etc. In addition, the societal infrastructure is becoming more sensitive to weather and climate extremes, which would be further exacerbated by climate change.

Therefore, UNDP would like to engage an International Consultant that shall model Macedonian extreme climate events’ frequency and intensity up to year 2100. The information collected and analyzed shall serve as baseline for the vulnerability and adaptation assessments within the 4th National Communication on Climate Change.

Deberes y responsabilidades

Objective of the Assignment
The consultant is expected to model climate variability and extremes i.e. climate induced hazards in the country up to year 2100. The consultant shall work in close cooperation with the Project Manager (PM) and the Macedonian Hydro-Meteorological Service.

Scope of Work

• Review the relevant chapter of the 3rd National Communication on Climate Change, and latest UNFCCC guidelines;
• Carry out a detailed analysis of the existing models for the country up to 2100;
• Based on the data and analyses provided by the Macedonian Hydro-meteorological Service, on IPPC SRES (RCP8.5/RCP4.5/RCP2.6) scenarios and relevant global circulation models (GCMs), develop and run long-term climate scenarios (up to year 2100) for temperature (heat waves, summer days, tropical nights, cold waves, frost/ice days) and precipitation related extreme climate events in the country (floods, droughts etc.);
• Downscale scenarios related to heat waves/droughts and heavy precipitation/floods on a city or region level, as applicable (Skopje/Polog region or Skopje/Strumica, will be selected additionally);
• Identify and propose most applicable regional models for seasonal weather forecasts for the country;
• Explore possibilities to use the Global Framework for Climate Services or other similar tools/networks for increasing knowledge and know-how about climate change resilience;
• Prepare a summary report that will include the main findings and recommendations, and will serve as input for the relevant chapter of the 4th National Communication on Climate Change;
• Prepare and conduct hands-on training to the Macedonian Hydro-meteorological Service in order to ensure transfer of knowledge for development of extreme climate events modelling;
• Provide support for the vulnerability and adaptation team;
• Present findings and recommendations at two workshops.

Expected outputs and deliverables:

The consultant is expected to prepare and submit the following deliverables:

• Extreme Climate Scenarios for the country developed (15 Dec 2019);
• Extreme Climate Scenarios for the selected city/region developed (30 Jan 2019);
• Summary report serving as chapter of the 4th National Communication on Climate Change (Feb 2019).
• Transfer of knowledge for development of extreme climate events modelling provided to the Macedonian Hydro-meteorological Service (March 2020)

Institutional arrangement

The consultant will work under direct supervision of the UNDP Project Manager. He/she will be in regular communication with the UNFCCC Climate Focal Point and the Macedonian Hydro-Meteorological Service.

The reports shall be prepared in English language.

Duration of the work

The duration of the Consultant is estimated up to 50 working days in the period October 2019- March 2020.

Duty station and travel

Two missions in Skopje are envisaged:
•    one in the first half of Dec to present findings of the scenarios on a workshop (3 days) and
•    second in March 2020 in order to conduct hands-on training to the Macedonian Hydro-meteorological Service (5 days).  

Competencias

• Excellent communications and facilitation skills;
• Excellent analytical and negotiation skills.
• Excellent public speaking and presentation skills.

Habilidades y experiencia requeridas

The selected candidates shall possess:

• University degree in natural/engineering sciences;
• Minimum 7 years of relevant experience in climate modelling/extreme climate events. Relevant experience in the Balkan region hall be considered as asset;
• Experience with at least 3 projects related to development of climate scenarios and/or modeling of extreme weather events.

Criteria for selection of best offer

The award of the contract shall be made to the offeror whose offer has been evaluated and determined as:
a) Being responsive/compliant/acceptable, and
b) Having received the highest score based on the following weight of technical and financial criteria for solicitation as per the schedule below:
* Technical criteria weight: 70%
* Financial criteria weight: 30%

Only candidates obtaining a minimum of 49 points (70%) in the technical evaluation shall be considered for the financial evaluation.

For the considered offers in the financial evaluation only, the lowest price offer will receive 30 points. The other offers will receive points in relation to the lowest offer, based on the following formula: (Pn / Pl) * 30 where Pn is the financial offer being evaluated and Pl is the lowest financial offer received.

Documents to be submitted

Interested offerors are invited submit the following documents/information to be considered:

1. Offeror’s letter, as per the following form LINK
2. Most updated CV with focus on required qualification as well as the contact details of at least three (3) professional references;
3. Brief description of why the individual considers him/herself as the most suitable for the assignment,
4. Financial Proposal The financial proposal must be expressed in the form of a lumpsum all-inclusive cost, supported by breakdown of costs as per template provided in $ USD for this consultancy.

The financial proposal must consider various expenses that will be incurred during the contract, including: the daily professional fee, travel, daily allowances, communications, any other expenses related to this assignment.